US Congress and Capitol dome in Washington DC with cash and check behind to illustrate coronavirus … [+] stimulus payment
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Americans have spent their first round of stimulus checks that were included under the CARES Act. But the recent emergence of coronavirus has constrained the economic reopening process in the US, and Americans are desperately hoping for a second round of stimulus checks. The big question among them is if the HEROES Act that passed the House will get a rubber stamp from the Senate. Donald Trump told Fox Business that his vision of the second stimulus check is “larger” than Democrats. This was the boldest statement by Trump on the second stimulus check subject to date, making people wonder if the second stimulus check would be larger than $1,200. Some are hoping that there may be monthly stimulus checks, given the fact that the majority of Americans are out of jobs.
The US jobs report released today confirmed that the employment situation had improved again for the second month in a row, and the fact is that you cannot continue to hope for another round of stimulus checks or payroll protection programs while the recovery in the job market is strong.
(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
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Current Stimulus Programs: HEROES Act And Other Stimulus Check Proposals
The $2,000 monthly stimulus check proposal would be the most unlikely scenario, regardless if Trump said he supports the stimulus check program. Payroll tax waivers and similar tax cut programs are likely to get a more favorable reaction.
June’s Payroll Report And A Second Stimulus Check
What can increase the odds of a second round of stimulus checks and who will qualify for one are determined by the US payroll data.
The US Non-Farm Employment change number confirmed today that the US economy is coming back with a bang. The US labor market created 4.8 million jobs against a forecast of 3.03 million when the previous month’s number was 2.69 million.
The US payroll protection program received good news today as the US unemployment rate fell to 11.4% against the 12.4% forecast when the previous reading was 13.3%.
All of the above confirms that things are looking up for Americans. As employers are hiring more than the expectations, the chances of getting your job back are higher. This also means that the odds of bigger stimulus checks may have partially evaporated, but they are still there.
Stimulus Check Hopes: US unemployment rate falls to 11.1% and this fades. Americans are hopeful that … [+] they will get another stimulus check because unemployment rate is very high
Avatrade, Bloomberg
Why We Still Need A Second Round of Stimulus Checks
We still need more stimulus support for Americans because today we also had the US Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Data. The Initial Jobless Claims Data was worse than expected, actual 1.43 million, forecast 1.35 million. There was also an echo of this in the Continuous Claims Data, actual 19.3 million, forecast 19 million. Both data points, initial and continuing jobless claims, are not likely to fall anytime soon.
Stimulus checks: Initial jobless claims are falling and so the continuous jobless claims. US economy … [+] is coming back strongly back
AvaTrade, Bloomberg
Second Stimulus Checks And Bankruptcies
US bankruptcies have started to stack up, mostly in the energy and retail sector, and are now at their fastest pace since 2009. The fact is that the more bankruptcies we have, the harder it will be to bring the overall US unemployment rate below a double-digit number.
Trump’s Support For “Larger” Stimulus Check Should Be Taken Carefully
In his interview with Fox Business, Trump mentioned “return-to-work” bonus. He favors this over other unemployment benefits or a payroll protection program. Trump’s support for the second stimulus check should be taken with caution because during his interview, he said “You’d make more money if you don’t go to work. That’s not what this country is all about. We want to create a tremendous incentive for people who want to go back to work.”
This is the right approach, and it is likely that this topic will be given a higher priority in the coming days. There is a strong possibility that second stimulus checks may supplement the bonus payment to bring US workers back in the labor force. But it is up to Congress to make the final decision.
Will Trump Get $2 Trillion Stimulus?
Congress is scheduled to vote on a new stimulus program this month. The current month’s unemployment number will be a critical factor in their vote on stimulus checks and the stimulus program. Congress is going to pay attention to the US labor force market, which confirms that Americans need more help but not necessarily a bigger second round of stimulus check.
