TOPLINE
The latest Gallup poll shows President Trump’s approval rating ticking down to its lowest point in a year and a half, while registering the largest partisan divide in a presidential approval survey since Gallup began polling presidential approval in the 1940s.
US President Donald Trump speaks as First Lady Melania Trump listens during the 2020 “Salute to … [+] America” event in honor of Independence Day on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, July 4, 2020. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
KEY FACTS
Overall, President Trump’s approval ticked down from 49% in May and 39% in June to just 38% in July, his lowest approval rating since the government shutdown in January 2019.
Just 2% of Democrats said they approve of the job Trump is doing, compared to 92% of Republicans, an unprecedented partisan divide that underscores the hyper-polarization of modern American politics.
The president’s most precipitous fall came among a critical voting bloc, independents, whose approval of Trump dropped 6 points since June, from 39% to 33%, compared to a 3-point slip among Democrats and a 6-point jump among Republicans.
Trump’s perpetually low approval amid the coronavirus pandemic, economic crisis and widespread civil unrest has gravely impacted his reelection chances, as he currently trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
There is also ample evidence to suggest that Biden’s lead is more durable than Hillary Clinton’s was in 2016, such as the fact that Biden is viewed as more moderate and as the change candidate in a year when 68% of voters say the country is on the wrong track.
In the Gallup poll, Trump also saw his support drop below 50% among white voters and men, groups Biden is uniquely strong with compared to Clinton.
Surprising Fact
No president since 1940 with an approval rating below 48% has won reelection, while every president with an approval rating above 49% has, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. That bodes poorly for Trump, who has never polled above 47% in the RealClearPolitics average.
News Peg
Trump’s continued low approval casts doubt on the efficacy of his response to the George Floyd protests, which has consisted of denouncing left-wing protesters and decrying the removal of statues of confederate figures, slave owning presidents and others. In June, he signed an executive order to make vandalizing or destroying public statues a criminal act, punishable by up to ten years in prison. He also signed an executive order on Saturday creating the National Garden of American Heroes, which will feature statues of prominent American figures throughout American history ranging from Fredrick Douglass and George Washington to Ronald Reagan and Antonin Scalia.
What To Watch For
Washington Post’s Robert Costa reported Monday that Trump’s advisors are looking to shift gears away from the president’s current messaging on race. Instead, he said, “many in the president’s circle are eager to turn to Biden and China,” a common talking point for Trump. But such a strategy may backfire for Trump; former National Security Advisor John Bolton has alleged he sought help from China in his bid for reelection, and a recent Harvard/Harris poll showed 54% of voters think Biden would be better at handling US-Chinese relations, compared to 46% who said Trump. Still, that pivot may not happen anyway, as Costa reported that “the president insists on driving his own message.”
