NOTHING IS DONE until it’s done. The election is 124 DAYS and something like 300,000 TRUMP news cycles away. But there is now a compelling pile of evidence that JOE BIDEN is in an absolutely commanding position against the incumbent President DONALD TRUMP.
— HE LEADS in nearly every national poll and almost all competitive state surveys. TRUMP’S approval rating is in the toilet, and most people believe the country is on the wrong track. RCP overview of public polls
— BIDEN outraised TRUMP for the second month in a row. NATASHA KORECKI: “The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee late Wednesday reported that they together raised $141 million in June, for a total cash haul of $282.1 million for the quarter.
“Both figures best Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee, which reported $131 million in June and $266 million during the second fundraising quarter of the year. The Trump campaign, however, reports it still has plenty sitting in the bank, with $295 million cash on hand. Democrats did not disclose that figure on Wednesday.” POLITICO
— SENATE REPUBLICANS are starting to sweat a bit. JOHN BRESNAHAN and MARIANNE LEVINE: “Senate Republicans can’t catch a break”: “‘The optimist in me would say the odds of us getting a break in the future are greater because we’ve had such a run of bad luck,’ joked Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who served in the House GOP leadership when Republicans there lost the majority in 2006. ‘I think it may very well work out that way.’ …
“‘You gotta play the hand you’re dealt. But yeah, we’ve been getting some bad cards lately,’ said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) ‘You’ve gotta keep playing and hopefully your luck changes at some point.’ ‘I’m still very confident we can win a lot of these races this fall,’ Thune added. ‘But timing and circumstances and the political environment have a lot to do with that. We’ll see what it looks like then.’”
AND, ALL THIS ASIDE, it does not appear as if TRUMP has any interest in changing his circumstance.
SPOTTED: Maskless Reps. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) at DCA Wednesday evening near the Southwest gates. Pic
GOOD THING WE’RE NOT IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC! — “Trump set to headline high-dollar fundraising dinner at a private Florida home next week,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Michelle Ye He Lee: “President Trump is set to hold a high-dollar dinner at a private residence in Hillsboro Beach, Fla., next week to raise money for his campaign and the Republican National Committee, according to an invitation sent to top GOP donors, his first in-person fundraiser since mid-June.
“The invitation does not name the owner of the home hosting the $580,600-per-couple event. Campaign manager Brad Parscale, RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and other senior RNC fundraisers are listed as hosts of the event.” Also worth the read from Dawsey and Carol Leonnig: “In wake of Trump’s Tulsa rally, his campaign is still contending with the fallout”
ELENA SCHNEIDER: “Record cash floods Democrats, Black groups amid protests and pandemic”: “Online donors poured a record $392 million into campaigns and causes via ActBlue in June, a sign of surging activism and political enthusiasm on the left that smashed the previous monthly high, from just before the 2018 election, by a whopping 50 percent.
“The eye-popping numbers on ActBlue, the favored digital fundraising platform for the Democratic Party as well as a growing host of left-leaning nonprofits, make for a startling split-screen next to Great Depression-level unemployment and spiking coronavirus cases across the country.”
Good Thursday morning. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Playbook PM is going to take a break Friday afternoon and Monday afternoon. We’ll be in your inbox every morning, though.
JOHN HARRIS column: “The anti-Trump movement will outlast Trump”: “The Trump years have scrambled old ideological lines. So perhaps it is not so surprising that in recent days George F. Will, the elegant dean of conservative columnists, and Matt Taibbi, a raucous liberal iconoclast, found themselves gnawing on different parts of the same bone.
“Here’s what made their agreement noteworthy: It had nothing to do with Donald Trump. In this case, both writers were agitated by what they see as the left’s effort to stifle free thinking and bully those who dissent from its rigid ideological and racial orthodoxy.
“The most important near-term question in American politics, obviously, is whether the anti-Trump coalition is powerful enough to evict him from office in November. Among the most important long-term questions in American politics, a bit less obviously, is the extent to which the anti-Trump coalition, which includes many conservatives joining people they once vigorously opposed, might continue redrawing ideological lines even after Trump is gone.
“What will happen to these strange bedfellows? Perhaps they will wake up in the morning, mumble some awkward goodbyes, and quickly push the evening out of memory. Or maybe they will shyly offer that they enjoyed this time together, exchange numbers, and suggest maybe, you know, if not too busy, it would be fun to see each other again.”
NATASHA BERTRAND and KYLE CHENEY: “Russia bounty flap highlights intel breakdown under Trump”
— REP. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.), a CIA veteran and White House national security aide for GEORGE W. BUSH and BARACK OBAMA: “If I had been at the National Security Council under either Bush or Obama, and [the Russian bounty intelligence] had come in, I would have slapped a cover note on top of it, sent it up the chain to the national security adviser and said, ‘Sir, I want to flag this … There’s some conflicting views. But it’s important — I think we should flag it for the president ahead of his calls.’” As quoted in Emily Cochrane’s NYT story
DRIVING TODAY: Top officials, including CIA Director GINA HASPEL, will brief the Gang of Eight this morning on intelligence suggesting Russia paid Taliban soldiers to kill Americans. The latest on that … The briefing will be at 11:30 a.m. … TRUMP is speaking at 11:30. … House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will brief at 9:30 a.m. … Speaker NANCY PELOSI will be at 10:30 a.m.
FRONTS: NYT, with a David Sanger and Eric Schmitt news analysis in the lead spot: “PUTIN ON OFFENSE AS TRUMP STANDS ON THE SIDELINES” … WSJ … N.Y. Post
YEDIDOT AHRONOT — Israel’s largest newspaper — is carrying a front-page op-ed by British PM BORIS JOHNSON, urging BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to not annex the West Bank. Headline, translated: “I’m an avid defender of Israel. That’s why I’m against annexation.” Front-page image
JOBS PREVIEW … MEGAN CASSELLA and REBECCA RAINEY: “Thursday’s jobs report will likely look great on paper: Millions of jobs added in June as states reopened. But those numbers are a deceiving bump — with the resurgence of the virus and a fresh wave of shutdowns, the reality of the job market is likely far bleaker.
“With more than 40 percent of the country now reversing or pausing its plans to reopen, the already struggling U.S. economy has begun to show signs of another shock. Real-time measurements ranging from job postings to restaurant reservations and small-business operations are suggesting a renewed decline in economic activity. And the number of households expecting to lose income over the next month increased in the most recent week, according to a U.S. Census Bureau survey released on Wednesday — the first rise recorded since the agency began conducting weekly household surveys two months ago.
“But because of a lag in the federal data, the employment numbers the Department of Labor will release Thursday morning — the results of a survey conducted through the middle of June — will fail to capture the latest round of devastation, economists say. The numbers therefore should be taken ‘with a whole stockpile of salt,’ said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at Grant Thornton.” POLITICO
CORONAVIRUS RAGING …
— WSJ: “U.S. Daily Coronavirus-Case Count Crosses 50,000,” by David Hall: “New coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose above 50,000, a single-day record, as some states and businesses reversed course on reopenings and hospitals were hit by a surge of patients.
“The U.S. accounts for about a quarter of more than 10.6 million coronavirus cases world-wide, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The nation’s death toll climbed above 128,000. Cases and hospitalizations are rising sharply in a number of areas.”
— WAPO: “Coronavirus cases rose by nearly 50 percent last month, led by states that reopened first,” by Anne Gearan, Derek Hawkins and Siobhán O’Grady: “Coronavirus infections in the United States surged nearly 50 percent in June as states relaxed quarantine rules and tried to reopen their economies, data compiled Wednesday showed, and several states moved to reimpose restrictions on bars and recreation.
“More than 800,000 new cases were reported across the country last month, led by Florida, Arizona, Texas and California — bringing the nation’s officially reported total to just over 2.6 million, according to data compiled by The Washington Post.
“States that took an aggressive approach to reopening led the country in infection spikes — along with California, the nation’s most populous state, where leaders have been more cautious. California on Wednesday reported 110 new deaths, more than any other state.”
— AP: “Cases spike in Sunbelt, other states back off on reopening,” by Jake Coyle and Jonathan J. Cooper with a Phoenix dateline: “California closed bars, theaters and indoor restaurant dining all over again across most of the state Wednesday, and Arizona’s outbreak grew more severe by nearly every measure as the surging coronavirus crisis across the South and West sent a shudder through the country.
“The run-up in confirmed cases has been blamed in part on what’s been called ‘knucklehead behavior’ by Americans not wearing masks or obeying social-distancing rules as economies reopened from coast to coast over the past two months.
“‘The bottom line is the spread of this virus continues at a rate that is particularly concerning,’ California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in dramatically expanding the round of closings he announced over the weekend.
“The shutdown announcement, which came just ahead of what is expected to be a busy Fourth of July weekend that could fuel the spread of the virus, applies to 19 counties encompassing nearly three-quarters of California’s 40 million people, including Los Angeles County.”
JOANNE KENEN with the big picture: “America’s told-you-so moment: How we botched the reopening”
HMM … DAN DIAMOND: “Health secretary focuses trips on swing states needed by Trump”: “In the midst of a coronavirus pandemic, the nation’s top health official is focused on showing his face in states that President Donald Trump needs to win for reelection.
“Since late April, HHS Secretary Alex Azar has made 11 trips to states — including nine to key battlegrounds in the 2020 campaign: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, as well as two trips apiece to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. One of the other two trips was a visit to Buffalo, N.Y., the hometown of a top aide who recently joined the department at Trump’s request and personally arranged Azar’s visit to the city. The other was to Boston, the media market for yet another battleground state, New Hampshire.
“The health secretary’s agenda at these stops included visiting hospitals, announcing awards and pushing on a message that the president was steadily managing the crisis. Some of the trips were part of Azar’s ‘health vs. health’ messaging campaign, where he argued that an overriding focus to contain the coronavirus was creating other risks to mental health and well-being.” POLITICO
AD WARS — “Democratic ad makers think they’ve discovered Trump’s soft spot,” by David Siders: “Donald Trump wasn’t halfway through his speech in Tulsa, Okla., and Democratic ad makers in Washington and New York were already cutting footage for an air raid on the slumping president.
“They didn’t focus on the president’s curious monologue about his difficulties descending a ramp or drinking water at West Point, the small crowd size of the Tulsa event or even his use of the racist term ‘kung flu.’ Instead, the ads zeroed in on Trump’s admission that he urged officials to ‘slow the [coronavirus] testing down.’
“It’s a reflection of a growing consensus among Democrats about what kind of hits on Trump are most likely to persuade swing voters — and which ones won’t. As in 2016, ad makers are focusing on Trump’s character. But unlike four years ago, they are no longer focusing on his character in isolation — rather they are pouring tens of millions of dollars into ads yoking his behavior to substantive policy issues surrounding the coronavirus, the economy and the civil unrest since the death of George Floyd.” POLITICO
TRUMP’S THURSDAY — The president will deliver remarks at 11:30 a.m. in the Grand Foyer for the “Spirit of America Showcase.”
FOGGY BOTTOM READING — “Late Action on Virus Prompts Fears Over Safety of U.S. Diplomats in Saudi Arabia,” by NYT’s Mark Mazzetti and Edward Wong: “A bleak analysis from within the embassy that circulated in closed channels in Riyadh and Washington late last month likened the coronavirus situation in Saudi Arabia to that of New York City in March, when an outbreak was set to explode. The assessment said the response from the Saudi government — a close partner of the Trump White House — was insufficient, even as hospitals were getting overwhelmed and health care workers were falling ill.
“Some in the embassy even took the extraordinary step of conveying information to Congress outside official channels, saying that they did not believe the State Department’s leadership or the American ambassador to the kingdom, John P. Abizaid, were taking the situation seriously enough, and that most American Embassy employees and their families should be evacuated. The State Department took those steps months ago at missions elsewhere in the Middle East, Asia and Russia.
“The episode, based on accounts from nine current and one former official, highlights the perils facing American diplomacy with a global pandemic still raging, and the frictions between front-line diplomats, intelligence officers and defense officials on one side and senior Trump administration officials on the other who are eager to preserve relations with nations like Saudi Arabia that have special ties with the Trump White House. The Saudi royal family has exercised enormous influence on Middle East and energy policies, as well as on controversial arms sales that President Trump has personally championed.”
DEEP DIVE — “Inside Moderna: The Covid Vaccine Front-Runner With No Track Record and an Unsparing CEO,” by WSJ’s Peter Loftus and Gregory Zuckerman: “At the year’s start, few outside the world of biotech had heard of a Boston-area company with a New Age name and unproven approach to drugmaking. Most in the industry who did know Moderna Inc. doubted its prospects. Investors barely had interest in the company, which had yet to produce a medicine.
“Moderna and its staffers were dealing with other pressures. For nine years, chief executive officer Stéphane Bancel nurtured a high-stress environment at the Cambridge, Mass., company, characterized by high expectations, sharp critiques of workers and heavy employee turnover, according to current and former staffers. Mr. Bancel’s admonitions of some underlings in group meetings motivated some to do better, and others to leave.
“Today, Moderna represents one of the world’s best shots at stemming a historic pandemic. It’s a front-runner in the hunt for a coronavirus vaccine, vying against industry heavyweights with proven track records. The question is whether Moderna’s vanguard science and tough management style is the right recipe for a vaccine breakthrough.” WSJ
JOSH GERSTEIN: “Court narrows restraining order against Mary Trump book”: “An appeals judge has partially lifted a temporary restraining order that barred publication of a book in which President Donald Trump’s niece offers a scathing portrait of the Trump family. In a ruling Wednesday, Supreme Court Justice Alan Scheinkman said another judge erred Tuesday by issuing a broad restraining order that prohibited publisher Simon & Schuster from printing or distributing copies of the book.
“‘S&S is not a party to the settlement agreement [and] this Court perceives no basis for S&S to be specifically enjoined,’ Scheinkman wrote in a six-page order in the suit, filed by President Trump’s brother Robert. ‘Unlike Ms. Trump, S&S has not agreed to surrender or relinquish any of its First Amendment rights.’
“The appeals judge left the order in place against Mary Trump and ‘any agent’ of hers, leaving some uncertainty about whether Simon & Schuster is still covered by the order or would be risking contempt of court by moving forward with plans to release the book, which is due to come out July 28 under the title: ‘Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World’s Most Dangerous Man.’” POLITICO
ONE COUNTRY, ONE SYSTEM — “Hong Kong Police Quickly Enforce China’s Security Law as Thousands Protest,” by WSJ’s Dan Strumpf, Mike Bird and Joyu Wang: “Thousands of protesters, unbowed by a sweeping new national-security law imposed by China, staged the largest show of defiance in Hong Kong this year, with some risking heavy prison terms to chant slogans of liberation and demand independence.
“Hundreds of Hong Kong police officers moved in swiftly to quash dissent and implement the law, which gives Beijing much greater powers to police the city and punish those accused of subversion and supporting separatism. Police fired tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons to disperse protesters and raised a banner to warn them that they could be violating the new law.” WSJ
STAFFING UP — CBS’ FIN GOMEZ (@finnygo): “NEW: @alexahenning is heading to the @realDonaldTrump campaign from the White House as the new Director of Media Affairs. Alexa was WH Asst Communications Director & Director of Broadcast Media. 1 of the few ‘originals’ left at WH that had been w/ @POTUS since the 2016 campaign.”
Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].
TRANSITIONS — Miryam Lipper will be comms director for Jon Ossoff’s Senate campaign in Georgia. She is a Kamala Harris, Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton and DNC alum. … Akash Chougule will be VP of the Economic Opportunity Initiative at the Stand Together Chamber of Commerce. He currently is a professional staff member for the House Education and Labor GOP, and is an Americans for Prosperity alum.
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is 36. How she got her start in politics: “I ran for secretary of middle school student council at Albany Academy for Girls on a platform of bringing a snack machine to school, and transparency by posting the weekly meeting notes on the school bulletin boards. A surprise to no one, it turns out that a snack machine is a very popular issue to middle schoolers and I won in a landslide. This was my first time learning about GOTV and whipping votes. Most importantly, I delivered the result by negotiating with the custodial staff and lunchroom staff to allow the installation of the snack machine.” Playbook Q&A
BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) is 6-0 … Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas) is 67 … Deputy Interior Secretary Kate MacGregor … Eric Fanning, president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, is 52 … Jonathan Capehart (h/t husband Nick Schmit) … Brad Todd, founding partner of On Message … Katherine Lehr … POLITICO’s Brooke Minters, Cristina Rivero, Graph Massara and Julian Garcia-Kasimirowski … Sammi McClain … former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu is 81 … Keith Morrison, correspondent for NBC’s “Dateline,” is 73 … Scott McGee of Kelley Drye … Derek Gianino, national engagement director at U.S. Global Leadership Coalition … Matthew Dybwad of Adobe … Collin Davenport … Jenny Beth Martin, honorary chair of Tea Party Patriots Action (h/t Keith Appell) … Courtney Geduldig, chief public and government affairs officer at S&P Global … Ray Sullivan … Luci Baines Johnson is 73 …
… Matthew L. Schwartz, partner at Boies Schiller Flexner … Gina Woodworth, director of U.S. public policy at Snap … former Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) is 81 … former Mexican President Vicente Fox is 78 … FT’s Sebastian Payne is 31 … Devon Gallagher … Victoria Adeniji … Army Capt. Chuck Nadd (h/t Brandt Anderson) … Fenton CEO Ben Wyskida is 43 … Kara Rowland … Alysha Love … Sophie Zeigler … Jeremy Garlington is 51 (h/t Bill Huey) … Caroline Keyes … Jessie Nguyen … Eddie Fishman … Joel Bernick is 82 … Arkadi Gerney … Ethan Oberman is 44 … Trevor Neilson is 48 … Jean Cecil Frick … Marie Formica … Reuters’ Michele Gershberg … Sam Nitz … Time’s Jonathan Woods … Brooke Oberwetter Coon is 41 … Emily Stanitz … Lyndsey Fifield … Hannah Rosenthal … Michael Matthews (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Ashley Zohn … Mike Chapman … Reed Howard is 25 … Marc Rylander … POLITICO Europe’s Natasha Bernard
- Anna Palmer @apalmerdc
- Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
