Independent voters have tuned out the political party conventions but those are precisely the voters whom President Trump must reach to move the needle in the presidential race, according to pollsters.
These unaffiliated voters, who are notorious for their ability to swing elections, have emerged more important than ever in 2020 as both parties locked down their bases early in the contest.
The good news for Mr. Trump is that he is largely in the driver’s seat for how independent voters make up their minds, several top pollsters told The Washington Times. The bad news, perhaps, is they are looking for Mr. Trump to show he is warm and fuzzy.
“My gut sense is that Trump is doing the right thing for himself,” said veteran pollster John Zogby in a nod to the president’s moves to soften his image.
Still, with ratings for both the party conventions this year down 25% from 2016, the odds dwindle for connecting with swing voters who almost always skip the conventions.
A CBS/YouGov battleground tracker poll found that 70% of independent voters said they didn’t watch much — if any — of the Democratic National Convention last week.
The crucial role of independents is glimpsed in an Economist/YouGov survey of voters in battleground states that was released Wednesday.
It showed that among registered voters Mr. Biden enjoyed a 9-point advantage over Mr. Trump, 50% to 41%. Among independents, Mr. Biden’s lead shrank to four points, 43% to 39%.
Voters registered with a party overwhelmingly backed their party’s nominee, with 93% of Democrats backing Mr. Biden and 88% of Republicans backing Mr. Trump.
The new battleground poll also underscored how independent voters are making up their minds based on Mr. Trump rather than Mr. Biden.
Of independent voters planning to vote for Mr. Biden, 69% said they were doing it to vote against Mr. Trump compared to 29% who said Mr. Biden himself was the motivation for their choice.
It was the opposite for independents who plan to vote for Mr. Trump, with 68% deciding because of support for the president and 29% out of opposition to Mr. Biden.
For many independent voters, the decision will come down to a matter of the candidates’ likability and compassion, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
He chalked up the importance of exuding humanity in 2020 presidential politics to an electorate battered by the coronavirus pandemic and economic uncertainty.
“Empathy and kindness might be what wins the day,” he said. “We’re all tired.”
Both candidates have labored to show their soft side during the conventions.
Mr. Biden, who has suffered from stuttering, presented 13-year-old Brayden Harrington, who struggled through a speech to tell how the candidate helped him feel more confident.
“He told me that we were members of the same club: We stutter,” Brayden said in a video during the virtual convention. “It was really amazing to hear that someone like me became vice president.”
Mr. Trump displayed his big heart during the RNC by granting a pardon to Jon D. Ponder, a former bank robber who turned his life around in prison and later founded a nonprofit called Hope for Prisoners that helps ex-convicts reenter society.
“Jon’s life is a beautiful testament to the power of redemption,” said Mr. Trump as he was joined by Mr. Ponder at the White House. “We believe that each person is made by God for a purpose. I will continue to give all Americans, including former inmates, the best chance to build a new life and achieve their own American dream.”
He also deployed first lady Melania Trump in a keynote speech Tuesday at the convention to help give him a humanizing makeover.
“In my husband, you have a president who will not stop fighting for you and your families,” Mrs. Trump said in a message directed at women and families.
Mr. Malloy said that empathy has been a strong suit for Mr. Biden.
“The president is making strides,” he said. “He talked about victims. I know that’s important for the president to emphasize — that he cares.”
G. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall Poll, said the empathy factor is front and center in the race.
“Republicans are aware of this. Look at the convention, look at the number of interviews [the president] has done with small groups of people to try to be humanizing. Make him appear likable,” Mr. Madonna said.
But he said the president’s fate is linked to what happens next with the coronavirus crisis and the related economic slowdown.
“Trump has to convince people that the curve has not just flattened but that things are dramatically improved. That’s very, very important. And the same with the economy,” he said. “If the economy gets better, then Trump is going to do better among independent voters. If it gets worse, that’s gonna hurt him.”
