An innovative research study by Stanford researchers released Friday suggested that far more Americans than formerly indicated might have been infected with the novel coronavirus– and now bring the protective antibodies, an indication of possible resistance.
In the first massive research of its kind, a group led by Dr. Eran Bendavid, associate professor at the Stanford University School of Medicine, tested 3,300 volunteers in Santa Clara County, California, and discovered that 2.5 to 4.2%were favorable for the COVID-19 antibodies.
That means that in a county of 2 million, between 48,000 and 81,000 residents would have had the infection, also called SARS-CoV-2, although the county health department had actually reported only about 1,000 cases on April 3-4, when the research study was performed.
” The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is a lot more extensive than suggested by the variety of confirmed cases,” the abstract stated. “Population prevalence price quotes can now be utilized to adjust epidemic and mortality projections.”
The research study, “COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California,” was published Friday in the journal medRxIV, but has actually not yet been peer-reviewed.
” Our findings suggest that there is someplace between 50- and 80- fold more infections in our county than what’s understood by the variety of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Bendavid stated in an interview with ABC’s Diane Sawyer.
@DianeSawyer, @DrMarkABC & I have invested weeks tracking the work of the fantastic minds at @Stanford – led by Dr. Eran Bendavid – as they did the very first massive neighborhood antibody testing. Results are out today and they are SURPRISING: https://t.co/iFgSkmDN6h
— Christina Ng (@ChristinaNg27) April 17, 2020
The volunteers, who were recruited through a Facebook advertisement seeking participants, received finger pricks for blood at three drive-through websites in the county.
At the same time, the outcomes indicate that a minimum of 95%of county locals did not have the antibodies, implying that the vast bulk would be vulnerable to infection, which the decision to allow people to go back to work would be a “really difficult choice,” Dr. Bendavid stated.
He stated those who have actually evaluated favorable for the antibodies must “keep following public health standards.”
Finding the number of individuals who bring the antibodies has become progressively urgent as the U.S. and other nations look for to resume their economies after weeks of stay-at-home assistances aimed at flattening the coronavirus curve.
The FDA has provided emergency-use authorizations to 4 companies for tests to discover whether people have had the coronavirus infection: Cellex, Chembio Diagnostic Systems, Ortho Medical Diagnostics and the Mount Sinai Lab.
In its truth sheet, the FDA stated the tests were developed to decrease incorrect positives, but that they remain a danger.
” A favorable result for IgG may not mean that a patient’s present or previous signs are because of COVID-19 infection,” said the FDA. “Lab test results ought to always be thought about in the context of medical observations and epidemiological data in making a final medical diagnosis and patient management choices.”
This isn’t the very first time Stanford scientists have challenged the forecasts on COVID-19
In a March 24 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya said the approximated death rate for the infection, then 2-4%, was far too high, offered the “woefully low” testing rates.
” If the number of actual infections is much bigger than the number of cases– orders of magnitude larger– then the true casualty rate is much lower. That’s not just possible however likely based upon what we know so far,” they said.
