{"id":63478,"date":"2020-07-30T02:21:07","date_gmt":"2020-07-30T02:21:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/trump-campaign-says-undercount-hidden-support-skews-polls\/"},"modified":"2020-07-30T02:21:07","modified_gmt":"2020-07-30T02:21:07","slug":"trump-campaign-says-undercount-hidden-support-skews-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/trump-campaign-says-undercount-hidden-support-skews-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump campaign says undercount, hidden support skews polls"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trump<\/a> campaign officials are convinced that polls showing Joseph R. Biden<\/a> with a big lead are tilted left by undercounting Republican voters and are missing a hidden cache of the president\u2019s supporters who are leery of pollsters.<\/p>\n

President Trump<\/a> and his campaign staff are not under the illusion that he is winning at this stage, but they think the race is much closer than polls suggest, especially in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey get some of these people who say they have no opinion or are undecided when they really are Trump<\/a> supporters,\u201d said a Trump campaign insider who did not want to be identified without authorization from the campaign. \u201cThe big thing the polls are doing is just underrepresenting Republicans, and it\u2019s blatant.\u201d<\/p>\n

The hidden Trump voters, according to the theory, are bullied into silence by the news media\u2019s daily accusations that they are racist or worse. These voters then conceal their support for Mr. Trump<\/a> for fear of being viewed as racist by the pollsters.<\/p>\n

Mr. Biden<\/a>\u2019s presidential campaign refused to discuss either phenomenon, but they have said they are taking nothing for granted and are doing everything possible to avoid the sort of Election Day that stunned Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.<\/p>\n

The numbers generally bear out claims of lopsided samplings in 2020 surveys.<\/p>\n

A national poll released this week by Economist\/YouGov<\/a> showed Mr. Biden<\/a>, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, with a 9 percentage point advantage over Mr. Trump<\/a>. The unweighted polling sample was 41% independents, 34.7% Democrats and 24.2% Republicans.<\/p>\n

In 2016, Republicans made up 31% of the electorate, similar to their share of turnout in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan won the White House. The 2016 electorate was 35% Democrat, similar to the polling sample, and 34% independent, which is a much smaller share than in the poll.<\/p>\n

A national poll by ABC News\/Washington Post, which gave Mr. Biden<\/a> a 10-point lead, used a similar sample of 39% independents, 30% Democrats and 24% Republicans.<\/p>\n

The Real Clear Politics average of national polls, which includes the Economist\/YouGov<\/a> and the ABC News\/Washington Post surveys, shows Mr. Biden<\/a> ahead of Mr. Trump<\/a> by 8.4 points.<\/p>\n

The same Economist\/YouGov<\/a> poll recorded Republicans giving Mr. Trump<\/a> an 87% approval rating.<\/p>\n

Democratic political operatives and pollsters dismiss discrepancies in the samples as inconsequential or reflective of likely turnout this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cRepublicans are whistling past the graveyard when they criticize current polling,\u201d said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. \u201cThere are fewer Republicans in the samples, but that\u2019s because the president has turned off so many voters over the last three-plus years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finding hidden Trump<\/a> voters is more difficult.<\/p>\n

Some of these voters emerged in recent focus groups conducted by the Trump<\/a> campaign in which the participants were grouped according to party affiliation, said the campaign insider.<\/p>\n

Members of the Democratic groups would quickly offer their disapproval of the president, but some members of the Republican groups would not offer their positive opinion of the president until they realized they were in a friendly crowd.<\/p>\n

\u201cProbably because they\u2019re used to keeping their opinions to themselves,\u201d the insider said. \u201cThey are out there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pollsters missing these voters and underestimating Mr. Trump<\/a>\u2019s support, particularly at the state level, is certainly possible, said Christopher Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut I think a systematic error on the scale of 2016 is not very likely,\u201d he said. \u201cI think if the president\u2019s campaign is banking on the polls systematically understanding his support, they are likely to be disappointed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr. Borick noted the strong performance of polling in the 2018 midterm elections and that many pollsters began weighting samples by educational attainment to correct what he saw as one of the primary causes of errors in 2016.<\/p>\n

G. Terry Madonna, director of the polling center at Franklin & Marshall College, said the relatively small number of undecided voters in most presidential preference polls, which has been around 14%, would be higher if there were an army of hidden voters in America.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t see any evidence of a huge hidden vote,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m not going to tell you that there aren\u2019t some people who will [untruthfully] tell you they are not going to vote for him, but there\u2019s not a lot of evidence that I\u2019ve seen that that exists.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pollsters also defend their performance in 2016 by citing Mrs. Clinton\u2019s lead in national polls just prior to the election averaged 3%, close to her win the popular vote by 2%.<\/p>\n

The state polls in 2016, however, missed the outcome by a wide margin. Most state surveys that year were not conducted in the final 10 days of the race, when many voters made up their minds.<\/p>\n

A poll released Wednesday reflected a tightening race in battleground states, including the \u201cBlue Wall\u201d of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that Mr. Trump<\/a> put in the Republican column in 2016 for the first time in a generation.<\/p>\n

The Democratic-aligned Change Research\/CNBC poll showed Mr. Biden<\/a>\u2019s lead shrinking to an average of 3 points \u2014 48% to 45% \u2014 among likely voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

His leads ranged from 2-point edges in Arizona and Pennsylvania to a 5-point lead in Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

Two weeks ago, Mr. Biden<\/a> held an average 6-point lead over Mr. Trump<\/a> in the same battleground states poll.<\/p>\n

The poll did not provide a breakdown of the survey sample by party affiliation.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the Trump campaign\u2019s dubious view of the polling, the president has shown he is sensitive about his job approval numbers, which have taken a hit as the coronavirus crisis drags on.<\/p>\n

Mr. Trump<\/a> mused this week about why his approval ratings are worse than those of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the administration\u2019s top infectious disease expert.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo it sort of is curious, a man works for us, and yet they\u2019re highly thought of and nobody likes me,\u201d Mr. Trump<\/a> quipped at a news conference. \u201cIt can only be my personality.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Trump campaign officials are convinced that polls showing Joseph R. Biden with a big lead are tilted left by undercounting Republican voters and are missing a hidden cache of the president\u2019s supporters who are leery of pollsters. President Trump and his campaign staff are not under the illusion that he is winning at this stage,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":63479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[1815,90],"class_list":{"0":"post-63478","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-campaign","9":"tag-trump"},"yoast_head":"\nTrump campaign says undercount, hidden support skews polls - Virus Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/trump-campaign-says-undercount-hidden-support-skews-polls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump campaign says undercount, hidden support skews polls - Virus Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trump campaign officials are convinced that polls showing Joseph R. 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