WASHINGTON (AP) — After months away from the campaign trail, President Donald Trump plans to rally his supporters next Saturday for the first time since most of the country was shuttered by the coronavirus. But health experts are questioning that decision.
Trump will head to Tulsa, Oklahoma — a state that has seen relatively few COVID-19 cases. Yet the Tulsa City-County Health Department’s director told the Tulsa World over the weekend that he wished the Trump campaign would move the date back because of a “significant increase in our case trends.”
“I’m concerned about our ability to protect anyone who attends a large, indoor event, and I’m also concerned about our ability to ensure the president stays safe as well,” Dr. Bruce Dart told the newspaper.
Other health experts also cite the danger of infection spreading among the crowd and sparking outbreaks when people return to their homes. The Trump campaign itself acknowledges the risk in a waiver attendees must agree to absolving them of any responsibility should people get sick.
WHAT MAKES THE RALLY HIGH RISK?
Trump’s rally will be held indoors, at a 19,000-seat arena that has canceled all other events through the end of July. Scientists believe the virus spreads far more easily in crowded enclosed spaces than it does outdoors, where circulating air has a better chance of dispersing virus particles.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention outlines the highest risk events for transmission of the coronavirus this way: “Large in-person gatherings where it is difficult for individuals to remain spaced at least 6 feet apart and attendees travel from outside the local area.” The CDC recommends cloth masks in places where people might shout or chant.
Trump’s rallies typically draw tens of thousands of supporters. They usually stand outside in line for hours before passing through airport-style security and cramming into an arena, where they sit side by side or stand shoulder to shoulder. The rallies are typically raucous, with much shouting, cheering and chanting. Some people dance and jeer at reporters. Sometimes protesters are met with violence before they are removed by security.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 06: An employee wearing a mask cleans the inside of the restaurant, Blue Stripes Cacao Shop as it prepares to reopen for takeaway and delivery orders after being closed for over a month amid the coronavirus pandemic on May 6, 2020 in New York City. Governor Andrew Cuomo made the announcement that all bars and restaurants must close by on March 16th unless it was takeout or delivery. COVID-19 has spread to most countries around the world, claiming over 263,000 lives with over 3.8 million cases. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 06: An employee wearing a mask cleans the inside of the restaurant, Blue Stripes Cacao Shop as it prepares to reopen for takeaway and delivery orders after being closed for over a month amid the coronavirus pandemic on May 6, 2020 in New York City. Governor Andrew Cuomo made the announcement that all bars and restaurants must close by on March 16th unless it was takeout or delivery. COVID-19 has spread to most countries around the world, claiming over 263,000 lives with over 3.8 million cases. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
THOUSAND OAKS, CA – MAY 06: A Cadillac Dealership displays a sign stating its reopened during the Coronavirus Pandemic on May 06, 2020 in Thousand Oaks, California. The coronavirus pandemic worldwide has claimed over 263,000 lives and infected over 3.7 million people. (Photo by Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, May 5, 2020 — Customers shop at a shopping mall in Frisco, on the outskirts of Dallas, Texas, the United States, May 5, 2020. After closed for several weeks due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the shopping mall reopened with shortened business hours on Tuesday. (Photo by Dan Tian/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/ via Getty Images)
HOUSTON, May 5, 2020 — Cars are parked in front of a shopping mall in Frisco, on the outskirts of Dallas, Texas, the United States, May 5, 2020. After closed for several weeks due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the shopping mall reopened with shortened business hours on Tuesday. (Photo by Dan Tian/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/ via Getty Images)
Dawson Padilla (L), owner of a protein shakes store, works behind the bar on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. – In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. “About three and a half hours after the law came into effect” of the text, “we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence,” said Norman McNickle, the city’s director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
A worker of the Aspen Cafe wears a mask as she makes coffee on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. – In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. “About three and a half hours after the law came into effect” of the text, “we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence,” said Norman McNickle, the city’s director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
Kelly Lyda, owner of the Aspen Cafe, stands in his Cafe on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. – In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. “About three and a half hours after the law came into effect” of the text, “we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence,” said Norman McNickle, the city’s director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
Computer specialist Toby Angel drinks his coffee on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. – In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. “About three and a half hours after the law came into effect” of the text, “we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence,” said Norman McNickle, the city’s director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
WESTPORT, CONNECTICUT – MAY 05: A cafe along a shopping street in the affluent community remains mostly empty of pedestrians and open stores on May 05, 2020 in Westport, Connecticut. A growing number of states have begun reopening parts of the economy amid demonstrations like the one yesterday that targeted the Connecticut state capital and the governor’s mansion in Hartford. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
WESTPORT, CONNECTICUT – MAY 05: A cafe along a shopping street in the affluent community remains mostly empty of pedestrians and open stores on May 05, 2020 in Westport, Connecticut. A growing number of states have begun reopening parts of the economy amid demonstrations like the one yesterday that targeted the Connecticut state capital and the governor’s mansion in Hartford. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
LAGUNA HILLS, CA – MAY 05: Customers maintain safety protocols at The BarberHood in Laguna Hills, CA, on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The shop is one of the first to re-open and defy the state”u2019s stay-at-home order during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) lockdown. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
SAN CLEMENTE, CA – MAY 05: Visitors walk on the beach south of the pier in San Clemente, CA on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The city opened its beaches for daily active use after coordinating with Gov. Gavin Newsom”u2019s office to maintain social distancing during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) lockdown. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
SAN CLEMENTE, CA – MAY 05: Surfers were back on the waves at T Street in San Clemente, CA on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The city opened its beaches for daily active use after coordinating with Gov. Gavin Newsom”u2019s office to maintain social distancing during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) lockdown. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
KENMORE, WA – MAY 05: Lynette Fisher-Charles and her dog Gracie, a two-year-old springer spaniel, go for a hike in Saint Edward State Park on May 5, 2020 in Kenmore, Washington. The first phase to reopen the state begins today easing some restrictions including opening some parks, that were put in place during Governor Jay Inslees Stay Home, Stay Healthy order last March to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Kenmore, WA is located northeast of Seattle. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)
KENMORE, WA – MAY 05: Daryl Kline, a park ranger at Saint Edward State Park removes a sign saying the park is closed on May 5, 2020 in Kenmore, Washington. The first phase to reopen the state begins today easing some restrictions that were put in place during Governor Jay Inslees Stay Home, Stay Healthy order last March to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Kenmore, WA is located northeast of Seattle. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)
LAGUNA BEACH, CA – MAY 05: Lifeguards keep a lookout at Laguna Beach, CA after officials reopened access to the sand on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The beach has been closed since March 23, 2020 due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak. City parks along the beach are still closed and people cannot sit or linger on the sand. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, May 4, 2020 — Photo taken on May 4, 2020 shows Times Square in New York, the United States.
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, New York Governnor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined additional guidelines regarding when regions can reopen.
According to the Governor’s Press Office, the state will monitor four core factors to determine if a region can reopen: number of new infections, health care capacity, diagnostic testing capacity and contact tracing capacity. (Photo by Wang Ying/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, May 4, 2020 — A worker cleans a cafe’s signboard at Times Square in New York, the United States, May 4, 2020.
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, New York Governnor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined additional guidelines regarding when regions can reopen.
According to the Governor’s Press Office, the state will monitor four core factors to determine if a region can reopen: number of new infections, health care capacity, diagnostic testing capacity and contact tracing capacity. (Photo by Wang Ying/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images)
ASBURY PARK, NJ – MAY 4: People walk near the closed boardwalk due to the outbreak of COVID-19 in the state on May 4, 2020 in the Jersey Shore in New Jersey. Some towns at Jersey Shore expect the reopening of beaches soon. (Photo by Eduardo MunozAlvarez/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images)
NORTH ANDOVER, MA – MAY 4: Although all golf courses in Massachusetts are still ordered to stay closed by governor Charlie Baker, workers at the North Andover Country Club in North Andover, MA work on the grass on May 4, 2020, getting the course ready for when they eventually are allowed to re-open. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – MAY 04: Gov. Gavin Newsom announced select retail businesses will be allowed to reopen starting Friday in California during the coronavirus pandemic on Monday, May 4, 2020 in Los Angeles, CA. (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
SANFORD, UNITED STATES – MAY 04, 2020: Customers enjoy a meal at Racks Billiards Sports Bar and Grill on the first day that retail stores and restaurants in all Florida counties except Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami Dade were permitted to reopen as COVID-19 restrictions are eased. Under phase one of the plan to reopen the state, stores and restaurants are limited to 25 percent of their indoor capacity.- PHOTOGRAPH BY Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/ Barcroft Studios / Future Publishing (Photo credit should read Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
SANFORD, UNITED STATES – MAY 04, 2020: A customer leaves a Books-A-Million store on the first day that retail stores and restaurants in all Florida counties except Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami Dade were permitted to reopen as COVID-19 restrictions are eased. Under phase one of the plan to reopen the state, stores and restaurants are limited to 25 percent of their indoor capacity.- PHOTOGRAPH BY Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/ Barcroft Studios / Future Publishing (Photo credit should read Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
BOZEMAN, MT – MAY 04: Sales staff wear masks at the reopened Schnee’s Boots, Shoes and Outdoors on Main Street on May 4, 2020 in Bozeman, Montana. Wyoming health officials today reported that the state’s confirmed coronavirus cases grew by nine to a total of 444. (Photo by William Campbell/Getty Images)
BOZEMAN, MT – MAY 04: Signs for restaurants and stores announce their reopenings on Main Street on May 4, 2020 in Bozeman, Montana. Wyoming health officials today reported that the state’s confirmed coronavirus cases grew by nine to a total of 444. (Photo by William Campbell/Getty Images)
JENSEN BEACH, FLORIDA – MAY 04: Cole Hunter carries Harper Hunter, 1, as Holly Hunter,4, follows along as they arrive at the beach on May 04, 2020 in Jensen Beach, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, as well as beaches and some state parks reopened today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain COVID-19. The counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade continue to maintain restrictions. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE BEACH, FLORIDA – MAY 04: People are seen dining outside at Cruisers Grill as the state of Florida enters phase one of the plan to reopen the state on May 04, 2020 in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopen today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE BEACH, FLORIDA – MAY 04: People are seen at a department store as the state of Florida enters phase one of the plan to reopen the state on May 04, 2020 in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopen today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
SAINT AUGUSTINE, FLORIDA – MAY 04: A mask is seen on the statue of Henry M. Flagler as the state of Florida enters phase one of the plan to reopen the state on May 04, 2020 in Saint Augustine, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopen today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
A man works on power lines in Los Angeles, California on May 4, 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic. – California governor Gavin Newsom earlier today announced the gradual reopening of the state later this week as dismal US employment figures are expected with the release of figures Friday May 8 for April’s US jobs report, as 30 million Americans filed for unemployment in the last six weeks. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
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Many attendees are older, which would put them at higher risk of severe complications from COVID-19. It’s not unusual for several individuals in the crowd to require medical attention when the temperature rises.
The rallies also typically draw supporters from surrounding towns and states. Some die-hard fans travel across the country from rally to rally like groupies for a band.
Dr. Ashish Jha, director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, called the upcoming Trump rally “an extraordinarily dangerous move for the people participating and the people who may know them and love them and see them afterward.”
Trump supporters coming from neighboring cities and states could carry the virus back home, Jha said. “I’d feel the same way if Joe Biden were holding a rally.”
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OKLAHOMA CASES LOW BUT RISING
In its final phase of reopening, Oklahoma now allows public gatherings of any size as long as organizers consider social distancing. Participants at any large gathering should stay 6 feet (1.8 meters) apart and wear a cloth face covering when distancing is a challenge, the state health department said.
The state has a relatively low death rate compared with the rest of the nation, but new cases are rising. In Tulsa, there were 82 new cases reported Saturday, a new high in daily increases for the county. The Tulsa Health Department already was investigating an outbreak linked to an indoor gathering of a large group of people.
Citing the spike in cases, Dart said he wished the rally would postponed to a later date “when the virus isn’t as large a concern as it is today.”
“I think it’s an honor for Tulsa to have a sitting president want to come and visit our community, but not during a pandemic,” Dart said in an interview Saturday with the Tulsa World.
Dart said the risk of spreading the virus increases with higher numbers of people congregating for longer periods of time.
Oklahoma health authorities said that anyone who attends a large public event should get tested for COVID-19 shortly afterward.
Shelley Payne, director of the LaMontagne Center for Infectious Disease at the University of Texas at Austin, said the Trump rally meets every criteria for the riskiest type of event.
“I would certainly recommend that people wear masks and try to keep as much distance as possible,” Payne said.
Julie Fischer, an associate research professor of microbiology and immunology at Georgetown University, said the event could have wide repercussions for the country.
“With a little bad luck, that scenario could end in the seeding of community outbreaks of COVID-19 across the U.S.,” she said.
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MASKS AND PRECAUTIONS
The Trump campaign has declined to respond to repeated questions about whether it will require attendees to wear masks, socially distance or take other measures to reduce the risk of virus transmission.
Trump has made clear that he believes empty seats are bad optics. “I can’t imagine a rally where you have every fourth seat full. Every — every six seats are empty for every one that you have full. That wouldn’t look too good,” he said in April.
Trump also insisted that the marquee event of the Republican National Convention — his acceptance of his party’s nomination for reelection — be moved from Charlotte, North Carolina, to Jacksonville, Florida, after North Carolina’s Democratic governor refused to promise he would not impose restrictions.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, a former neurosurgeon, said Trump’s rallies will be coordinated with public health authorities to maintain safety.
“As far as the virus is concerned, we have two choices: we can allow it to dominate us, or we can learn as much as we can about it and we can learn how to live with it in a safe, prescribed manner,” he said on “Fox News Sunday.” “And I think the second option is the one that’s going to be adopted.”
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WHY NOW?
Trump has been eager to resume the rallies that are the centerpiece of his campaign. The president revels in his large crowds. The events let him vent and gauge the kind of rhetoric that will appeal to his ardent political base. They also help his campaign expand its voter databases and will serve as a contrast to Democratic challenger Biden, who has suspended campaign events because of the virus and hasn’t attracted the same size of crowds.
But the decision to pull the trigger now was driven, in large part, by the mass anti-racism protests that have taken place across the country in the wake of George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis. Campaign and White House officials say the protests — and the limited public health outcry they generated — gave them cover. If it was OK for tens of thousands of people to march through the streets, demanding racial justice, why can’t Trump rally his supporters, too?
Of course, the protests were held outside, with many participants wearing masks.
“Any large gathering, whether of protesters or ralliers, is dangerous,” Jha said. But infection is less likely at an outdoors moving march than at a crowded event in an enclosed space, he said, citing the air flow.
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THE WAIVER
The Trump campaign, in recognition of the risk, has tried to protect itself from lawsuits with waiver language on its registration website.
“By clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present,” the campaign advised those signing up for the rally. “By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.” liable for illness or injury.
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Johnson reported from Washington state.
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