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{"id":56208,"date":"2020-07-13T12:22:30","date_gmt":"2020-07-13T12:22:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/hes-in-trouble-here-can-trump-win-swing-state-wisconsin-again\/"},"modified":"2020-07-13T12:22:30","modified_gmt":"2020-07-13T12:22:30","slug":"hes-in-trouble-here-can-trump-win-swing-state-wisconsin-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/hes-in-trouble-here-can-trump-win-swing-state-wisconsin-again\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;He&#8217;s in trouble here&#8217;: can Trump win swing state Wisconsin again?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"article-review-body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p><a data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" data-link-name=\"auto-linked-tag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/donaldtrump\">Donald Trump<\/a> claimed to have done so much for African Americans that his campaign decided to open the first ever Republican office in a black neighbourhood of Milwaukee.<\/p>\n<p>The office on Martin Luther King drive was decorated with \u201cBlack Voters for Trump\u201d signs, and launched with fanfare in February in an attempt to win enough African American votes to repeat the president\u2019s razor-thin victory in <a data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" data-link-name=\"auto-linked-tag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/wisconsin\">Wisconsin<\/a> four years ago, which was crucial to winning the White House. Two weeks later, the windows were daubed with paint and \u201cscum\u201d scrawled across the door.<\/p>\n<p>Not long after that, the coronavirus pandemic shut down campaigning. Now the office is back up and running, but in a very different electoral landscape to the one that existed in February. Covid-19 has shattered the illusion that Trump could take significant numbers of African American votes following his hostility to the Black Lives Matter movement in the wake of George Floyd\u2019s killing. Trump\u2019s mishandling of the pandemic \u2013 which has had a disproportionate impact on communities of colour \u2013 has also been a factor.<\/p>\n<p>Outside his apartment a block from the Trump campaign office, Cleophus Lobley acknowledged that he helped elect the president in 2016 by not voting. The African American truck driver said the events of the past few months mean he won\u2019t make that mistake again.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDamn right I\u2019m not happy with Trump. To me, he\u2019s really a very prejudiced person. He\u2019s been bad for the black community,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m not just talking about Covid and George Floyd, but that made things worse. That\u2019s the kind of president he is. I decided I would vote this time because of him. Maybe my vote might count. I don\u2019t know anyone around here who will vote for him.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Lobley was among 40,000 people in Milwaukee who voted for Barack Obama but failed to turn out for Hillary Clinton in 2016, including a significant proportion from black neighbourhoods. Their absence was more than enough to give victory to Trump in Wisconsin. He won the state by just 23,000 votes \u2013 a margin of victory of 0.77% \u2013 giving him a crucial part of the electoral college puzzle that put him into the White House.<\/p>\n<p>If he is to stay in power, the president almost certainly needs to repeat that victory while also winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, two other states he took by tiny margins.<\/p>\n<p>Wisconsin <a data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" data-link-name=\"auto-linked-tag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/republicans\">Republicans<\/a> suffered stinging setbacks with the loss of the governor\u2019s office in 2018, and in April they lost a key seat on the state supreme court alongside a failed attempt to purge the voting roll of 200,000 people before November\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<p>The scale of the Jill Karofsky\u2019s victory in the supreme court race over a sitting justice who was strongly backed by Trump, and the fact of a high turnout despite long lines because so many polling places were closed by coronavirus, gave Democrats reason to hope that their supporters are more engaged with politics than four years ago. This would be bad news for the president.<\/p>\n<h2>\u201cHe\u2019s got a tougher road here than he had in March\u2019\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>A <a data-link-name=\"in body link\" href=\"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/\">survey of Wisconsin voters<\/a> by Marquette law school in Milwaukee gave the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, an eight-point lead over the president in June, a five point increase on a month earlier.<\/p>\n<p>The survey showed rising disapproval in the state for Trump\u2019s job performance, linked to his handling of coronavirus but also the Black Lives Matter protests. More than half said Trump has got it wrong in dealing with Covid-19. Just 30% of voters approved of his response to the killing of Floyd and the demands for police reform.<\/p>\n<p>Even on his strongest issue, the economy, Trump\u2019s approval rating fell four points to 50%.<\/p>\n<p>Crucially, opposition has grown among independents who were instrumental in delivering Wisconsin to him four years ago. Disapproval of Trump\u2019s leadership among independent voters in the state surged from 36% to 57% between May and June.<\/p>\n<p>Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette poll, said \u201cthat intense negativity\u201d is to the Democrats\u2019 advantage if it motivates people to vote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrump\u2019s in trouble. He\u2019s got a tougher road here \u2013 a considerably tougher road than he was facing back in March, when it looked like a very tight race. There seem to be cracks in the nearly unanimous Republican support and a loss of independent support,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a picture found in travelling across Wisconsin over the last week, from its main cities to the rural wilds of the north of the state where Trump did so well four years ago. Republican activists there are increasingly concerned at eroding support for the president and what they see as his lack of a coherent strategy or policies to regain it, particularly on key issues such as healthcare, which has taken on added resonance in the middle of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Some county party chairs privately wonder if Trump has already given up hope of re-election because, they say, he continues to repeat the divisive behaviour that has damaged his presidency, as well as taking highly controversial decisions such as commuting Roger Stone\u2019s prison sentence.<\/p>\n<p>Franklin said he had been particularly surprised by the president\u2019s low polling over Black Lives Matter.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTo the extent that Trump\u2019s reaction to the protest is seen as opposing the valid reasons for the protests, Trump is on the wrong side of public opinion \u2013 even here in Wisconsin with our 80-something percent white population,\u201d he said. \u201cThat issue of race and Confederate statues and patriotism, as he sees it, is not playing to a strong suit for him right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>\u2018There is no such thing as democratic socialism. It\u2019s the same as democratic Auschwitz\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>That was not immediately evident at the Wisconsin Republican convention in Green Bay on Saturday, where party leaders largely sidestepped mention of coronavirus, other than to call it a \u201ccommunist China exported plague\u201d, in favour of an assault on Black Lives Matter that marked out the ground the party wants to fight the election on.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve seen violent mobs taking to the streets in order to erase our history,\u201d Congressman Mike Gallagher, who represents a Wisconsin district, told the conference.<\/p>\n<p>Katrina Pierson, the former spokesperson for Trump 2016 and an adviser to this year\u2019s campaign, said that as a black woman she thought it important that Republicans remind African Americans voters it was their party under Lincoln that freed those who were enslaved.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen black Americans wake up, it\u2019s game over,\u201d she said, to tepid applause.<\/p>\n<p>In an effort to stir that awakening, the party is pushing the widely derided claim that \u201cnobody has ever done more\u201d for African Americans than Trump in creating jobs for minorities, criminal justice reform and combating poverty. But Piersen undermined her own case with language sure to alienate large numbers of black voters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Black Voices for Trump coalition will be taking on Black Lives Matter. We have the candidate that has the policies that prove black lives matter, because he believes that all lives matter,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>A Soviet defector, Yuri Maltsev, broadened the attack on the Democrats by warning the dangers of democratic socialism. The Republican party, he said, is all that stands between freedom and communist \u201cslavery\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is no such thing as democratic socialism. It\u2019s the same as democratic Auschwitz,\u201d he said, to some gasps.<\/p>\n<p>Wisconsin\u2019s Republican party was one of the few to go ahead with an in-person state convention this year. Few of the mostly elderly delegates were wearing masks, in a reflection of how widely their use is now seen as a political statement in parts of the country.<\/p>\n<p> Among delegates to the convention there was no great confidence in a strategy of attacking Black Lives Matter and painting the Democrats as Stalinists.<\/p>\n<p>Vicky Ostrey, representing Germantown on the edge of Milwaukee, is not confident Trump will win.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think it\u2019s going to be a tough re-election,\u201d she said, reflecting a view widely heard from Republican activists, particularly in rural Wisconsin where Trump needs to win big again to offset any surge in re-motivated Democratic voters in the cities.<\/p>\n<p>The threat to Trump\u2019s grip on the White House comes not only from a resurgence in the Democratic vote, but in the loss of independent and moderate Republican support in Wisconsin. That has been steadily eroding as the president alienates former voters piecemeal with his assaults on the military, the justice system and broader democratic norms.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats still lose in Waukesha county west of Milwaukee, one of three solidly Republican counties around Milwaukee seen as an important test of Trump\u2019s ability to hold on to the support of prosperous college educated voters. But Democratic candidates have taken an increasing share of the ballot in recent elections for the US Senate, governor and state supreme court.<\/p>\n<p>Matt Lowe, the 29 year-old chair of Waukesha\u2019s Democrats, attributes that in part to Republican voters abandoning Trump, but also to a shift in priorities of those Democrats who are not enthusiastic about Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think a lot of younger, more progressive voters see this as a referendum on Trump\u2019s whole presidency, not just coronavirus,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m a millennial who is also straight, white, cis, living in a fluid community. I know that if Donald Trump is elected for four more years I will most likely be OK as an individual.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut I know that my LGBT friends, my friends of colour, the friends who are less likely to be as safe in a Trump America, they will not be OK. For a lot of younger voters who may be more idealistic, radical, they see that this is more than their ideology. It\u2019s about protecting those who need them as allies to vote to help protect them. It\u2019s a motivation to vote.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Still, there are still four months to the election in a year in which events have moved fast.<\/p>\n<p>Franklin said the president could win back support if the economy improves over the summer, but warned that Trump\u2019s pushing for the reopening of schools and universities will damage him if it resulted in a surge in coronavirus cases in the run-up to the election.<\/p>\n<p>There is also the question of how the pandemic will affect voting, particularly if many polling stations are closed in the major cities as they were for April\u2019s elections, causing long lines. But some voters waited for hours to cast their ballot, reflecting an apparent determination to counter Trump. More than 60% voted by mail, an option likely to be widely taken up for the presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever it takes, Lobley is determined to be heard this time, even if he is not hugely enthused by Joe Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBiden talks good, but he\u2019s trying to get the majority of black people on his side to get the votes. I know what he\u2019s doing,\u201d he said. \u201cBut the important thing is to get rid of this president.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2020\/jul\/13\/can-trump-win-swing-state-wisconsin-again\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump claimed to have done so much for African Americans that his campaign decided to open the first ever Republican office in a black neighbourhood of Milwaukee. The office on Martin Luther King drive was decorated with \u201cBlack Voters for Trump\u201d signs, and launched with fanfare in February in an attempt to win enough&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":56209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[5186,6489],"class_list":{"0":"post-56208","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-here","9":"tag-trouble"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&#039;He&#039;s in trouble here&#039;: can Trump win swing state Wisconsin again? - Virus Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/hes-in-trouble-here-can-trump-win-swing-state-wisconsin-again\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&#039;He&#039;s in trouble here&#039;: can Trump win swing state Wisconsin again? - Virus Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump claimed to have done so much for African Americans that his campaign decided to open the first ever Republican office in a black neighbourhood of Milwaukee. 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