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It looks, for now, like President Trump has bounced back a little after bottoming out.
The president was at a low point against former Vice President Joe Biden, but in the past month, even though Biden still has an edge, the landscape has tightened some, according to the latest NPR Electoral College analysis.
The biggest change is that Florida has tightened in the month and a half since our last analysis and is back in the toss-up category. This means that including states leaning toward Biden, he is just below the 270-vote threshold needed to win the presidency. Currently he has a 268-to-169 advantage in the Electoral College.
What we changed
Florida from Lean D to Toss Up
Nebraska’s 2nd District from Lean R to Toss Up
Virginia from Lean D to Likely D
New Mexico from Lean D to Likely D
Florida
We’ve made only a few changes, but one important one: Florida moves back to its traditional spot as a toss-up state. While Biden maintains a slight lead there, Trump has gained about 4 percentage points in polling averages since the end of July.
A new Monmouth University survey in Florida has Biden up 5 points among registered voters, and an NBC/Marist poll there has the race deadlocked at 48% apiece among likely voters.
The surveys showed contradictory findings when it came to Latinos. Monmouth had Biden with a large lead among Latinos but still underperforming what Hillary Clinton got with the group in 2016. That’s something reflected on the ground as well, as Democrats there are concerned with being able to register enough Latino voters amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Both surveys showed Trump and Biden splitting seniors. That’s bad news for Trump, given that he won them by a wide margin in Florida in 2016. That’s something Republicans are worried about — not just in the presidential election but down ballot as well.
Biden underperforming with Latinos but overperforming with voters 65 and older has been something seen consistently this year. How those unpredictable shifts wind up playing out is unclear and could mean volatility for which voters turn out.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks in Tampa, Fla., on Tuesday during a roundtable discussion with veterans and military families.
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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks in Tampa, Fla., on Tuesday during a roundtable discussion with veterans and military families.
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Nebraska’s 2nd District
Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District by 2 points in 2016. Second lady Karen Pence and Lara Trump, the wife of Trump’s son Eric, stumped for the president in this Omaha-area district in the past month. Democratic sections of the district have been registering Democrats since 2016 faster than Republicans have been doing so in right-leaning areas. And the congressional race there right now is neck and neck.
Virginia and New Mexico
Demography continues to trend Democratic in Virginia. In a shift from 2016, there are now almost as many whites with a college degree as without in the state, as the population of Asian Americans also continues to grow. New Mexico has also trended Democratic, with 40% of voters in the state being Latino in 2016, according to exit polls.
In both states, Biden has a double-digit lead in an average of the polls.
What we didn’t change
Arizona remains Toss Up, but Biden has an edge
Biden has led in Arizona since March, but his margin is still pretty narrow. There haven’t been a ton of good polls, though a Fox News poll had Biden up 9 points with likely voters. If other polls show similar results, it could be a state that moves to the Lean D column.
In Georgia, Trump and Biden switch positions
Not much has changed in Georgia. The state remains close. Biden was ahead narrowly in mid-July, but now Trump is ahead, reverting to where things were earlier in the year.
Iowa stays as Lean R
Iowa has moved a couple of points back in Trump’s favor on average, though Trump and Biden are within 2 points of each other. While the polls indicate a statistical tie, Trump won here, and it’s a state with a high white, non-college-educated population, giving Trump an advantage for now.
Supporters of President Trump hold up signs during an indoor campaign event for him on Sunday in Henderson, Nev. Nevada is a state that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016 but that Trump is trying to flip.
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Supporters of President Trump hold up signs during an indoor campaign event for him on Sunday in Henderson, Nev. Nevada is a state that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016 but that Trump is trying to flip.
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Ohio remains Toss Up, but we’re watching
There hasn’t been much polling in Ohio, but Trump has gained about 4 points in polls over the past couple of months, giving him a very slight advantage. Trump won it in 2016, and given its high population of whites without a college degree, Ohio remains a state where Trump may have an edge.
Pennsylvania stays as Lean D
The average of the polls shows that the race has tightened by a few points but that Biden is still ahead. And better polls have shown a wider margin than the average. The tightening is something to watch to see if Trump makes more inroads in the next couple of weeks.
Texas remains Lean R
Trump and Biden are statistically tied in Texas, according to the polls. And Biden continues to outperform where Clinton was in 2016. But there hasn’t been a lot of good polling in the state this cycle; no Democrat has won the state in a presidential election since 1976; and Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Let’s see where the race is in a couple of weeks with better polling.
Wisconsin remains Toss Up
Right now, this state might be a tip of the scale to Biden, according to the polls, but a Marquette Law School poll had an interesting finding that should worry Democrats: Among registered voters, Biden was up 6 points, but among likely voters, that shrank to 4 points. With all the volatility in the state currently, its past voting performance (Trump won it narrowly) and the fact that it has one of the highest white, non-college-educated populations of the swing states, it stays in the toss-up category for now.
Other places to watch
Kansas, Montana and South Carolina
Let’s be clear: These are all still places Trump is likely to win, but it’s notable about the national climate that in all three, Trump’s lead is in the single digits in an average of the polls.
For more on our methodology and possible scenarios for paths to winning for Biden and Trump, check out our first Electoral College analysis from June.
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]]>Initial ratings for the first game of the NFL 2020 regular season plunged amid the league’s social-justice push and greater competition from other professional sports.
The overnight Nielsen Media Research figures showed that the prime-time Thursday night match-up on NBC Sports dropped 16.1% in the key 18-49 demographic, attracting 16.4 million viewers in what could be a 10-year audience low, according to Deadline.
The 34-20 win by the Kansas City Chiefs over the Houston Texans was unusual in several respects: Thanks to the novel coronavirus, only 17,000 socially distanced fans were allowed at Arrowhead Stadium, and the season began without the traditional lead-up after the NFL canceled preseason games.
The game also gave viewers their first look at the NFL’s newly unveiled social-justice initiatives. Prior to the game, both “The Star-Spangled Banner” and “Lift Ev’ry Voice and Sing,” known as the Black national anthem, were played, and “END RACISM” and “IT TAKES ALL OF US” were painted in the end zones.
Even so, the Texans remained in the locker room for both anthems. Players then locked arms at midfield for a “moment of unity” as a video screen displayed messages such as “WE BELIEVE BLACK LIVES MATTER” and “WE MUST END RACISM,” apparently prompting boos from the audience.
“This number is alarming,” said Outkick the Coverage’s Bobby Burack. “[Chiefs QB] Patrick Mahomes is the best show in sports, the Chiefs are a thrill ride. If that combination can’t get fans to ignore the exhausting nonsense, few games will.”
#NFLKickoff – Super Bowl champs @Chiefs easily beat @HoustonTexans, but early ratings, things don’t look good for the @NFL or @NBCSports https://t.co/W6BWFl2Opm
— Dominic Patten (@DeadlineDominic) September 11, 2020
The NFL gave players the option of wearing decals with messages or names such as those of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor on the backs of their helmets “to honor victims of systemic racism.”
While viewers may have been turned off by the politics, it’s also possible that sports fans were diverted by the NBA and NHL playoffs, both of which overlapped with the NFL season after being delayed by the COVID-19 lockdowns, as well as the U.S. Open women’s semifinal.
Pundits also noted that football’s inaugural Thursday night game, which Kansas City led 24-7 at the start of the fourth quarter, was less competitive than last year’s opener between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, which the Packers won 10-3, drawing 22 million viewers.
The roughly 17,000 fans who filed into Arrowhead Stadium for a masked and socially distanced start to the NFL season Thursday found themselves in the middle of the nationwide discussion about social injustice. https://t.co/LTbQ7sN1XN
— Spectrum News Austin (@SpecNewsATX) September 11, 2020
Fox Sports executive vice president Mike Mulvihill pointed out that ratings for Thursday’s four sports events — the NFL, NBA, NHL and U.S. Open — drew a 17.4 rating, higher than the 16.9 rating posted in 2019 for the NFL and U.S. Open.
“The impact of out-of-season competition will lessen as the NFL season goes on, and will generally be less on Sundays than it was for the opener,” he tweeted.
The NFL saw ratings tick up 5% in 2019, reversing a slide that began in 2016, the year that then-San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began taking a knee during the national anthem to protest police brutality.
That decline has also been blamed on cord-cutting as television-watchers cancel their multichannel cable subscriptions.
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]]>NEW YORK — Preliminary estimates show that viewership for the first night of the Democrats’ virtual convention was down compared with the opening of Hillary Clinton’s nominating party four years ago.
An estimated 18.7 million people watched coverage between 10 and 11 p.m. on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC, the Nielsen company said. Four years ago, opening night drew just under 26 million viewers.
Nielsen’s preliminary numbers did not include streaming or networks like PBS and CSPAN; a more comprehensive estimate is due later Tuesday.
MSNBC and CNN, which aired the Democrats’ two-hour prepared telecast essentially in its entirety, were rewarded with the biggest audiences. MSNBC had 5.1 million viewers and CNN had 4.78 million, roughly twice what the broadcast networks reached.
Fox News Channel’s audience of 2.1 million viewers was smaller than what time slot occupant Laura Ingraham reaches on a typical night, perhaps explaining why Fox didn’t preempt Tucker Carlson or Sean Hannity earlier in the evening.
Those networks that didn’t air the Democrats’ program in its entirety struggled to keep up Monday. In the end, they were rewarded with the most traditional of political events – a powerful speech.
Before former first lady Michelle Obama’s keynote address, much of the coverage felt uncomfortably like watching an army making the common mistake of fighting a new conflict with the tactics of the last war.
“This will not be like any convention we have seen before, ever,” CNN’s Anderson Cooper said. “The coronavirus changes the way we do everything.”
The pandemic forced Democrats to abandon a Milwaukee convention hall. Instead, the party produced a slick, fast-moving infomercial hosted by actress Eva Longoria Baston that featured quick speeches, music and the testimony of non-politicians. It even featured the presidential candidate himself, Joe Biden, as a television “anchor” interviewing five figures arrayed before him on screens.
Speakers stood before a variety of backdrops: Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser was above the “Black Lives Matter” plaza, while the pile of firewood behind Sanders made it appear he was getting ready for a long Vermont winter.
Until Sanders and Obama, politicians played a secondary role. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose father Mario’s soaring keynote highlighted the 1984 convention, was immediately overshadowed by Kristin Urquiza’s story of her father’s death from COVID-19.
Typical conventions have moments for television analysts to comfortably opine, when there’s a set change, a boring speaker who drones on too long or lengthy applause by delegates.
That wasn’t the case Monday. For example, Alabama Sen. Doug Jones was essentially ignored in favor of an NBC discussion about mail-in voting; a CBS interview with Reince Priebus, President Donald Trump’s former chief of staff; and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie calling another former governor, Ohio’s John Kasich, a “back-stabber” on ABC.
Although broadcast networks were on the air for the second of the two-hour Democratic show, top personalities like George Stephanopoulos, Norah O’Donnell and Chuck Todd logged time earlier in the evening on livestreams.
After Obama’s speech, commentators were awestruck. The lack of a live audience clapping and cheering seemed beside the point.
“This is how pastors the Sunday before the election are going to sound,” said MSNBC’s Joy Reid. “She preached the word tonight.”
Copyright © 2020 The Washington Times, LLC.
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President Trump is in a political hole and has a lot of ground to make up over the next five months if he hopes to win another term, an NPR analysis of the Electoral College map finds.
Given his handling of the coronavirus and protests over racism and police brutality in the first six months of this year, Trump has slipped in many of the key swing states he won in 2016, such as Michigan, which now appears to lean towards former Vice President Joe Biden. The percentage of people disapproving of the job Trump is doing is at near-record highs for his presidency, and the intensity of the opposition is higher than for any past president.
Our analysis puts states in one of these categories:
- Likely Republican or Likely Democratic: States that appear firmly behind one candidate and are not expected to be heavily contested.
- Lean Republican or Lean Democratic: States that appear to favor one candidate but remain competitive.
- Toss up: The most competitive states that either Trump or Biden has a good chance to win.
To win the presidency, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 electoral votes available across the 50 states and Washington, D.C. Most states are not very competitive. Their demographics and partisan voting histories make them likely to go to the same party they’ve broken for in recent elections, such as heavily Democratic California and heavily Republican Oklahoma.
In this presidential election, our analysis finds just 16 states are competitive, in addition to two electoral votes in states that award some by individual congressional districts — that they either only lean toward one candidate or are pure toss ups. Just eight states and one of the congressional districts are considered pure toss ups.
Viewed another way: About 45% of the U.S. population lives in the lean and toss up states that will determine the presidential election, and less than a quarter of Americans live in the most competitive toss up states.
Biden starts with a 238 to 186 advantage over Trump, when including states that lean in either candidate’s direction or that they’re likely to win. But Biden is no shoo-in. The analysis finds he’s still 32 electoral votes short of the 270 he would need, and the Democrat needs to peel off key states Trump won in 2016 to get over the line.
Methodology
Before we get to the specifics of the current ratings and scenarios for how the election could go, let’s explain how we made the assessment. We base our analysis on three important baseline factors:
- Our reporting: what our team observes on the ground in key states, as well as in conversations with campaigns, strategists and activists on both sides;
- History and demography: past voting patterns in each state as well as demographic patterns and trends;
- Polling: Sure, some will say, “…but the polls were wrong in 2016!” It’s true that some state polls got it wrong, which is why they are not the only factor; we take that data with a heavy grain of salt. It’s also important to remember — polls aren’t meant to be predictive. They are snapshots of where things stand now, and a lot of things can happen between now and Election Day. Here, we’re referencing the averages tracked by RealClearPolitics.
We’ll update our analysis and electoral vote ratings regularly in the months and weeks leading up to Nov. 3.
Inside the ratings
Former Vice President Joe Biden, right, speaks in Wilmington, Del., earlier this year. President Trump at the White House in April.
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Former Vice President Joe Biden, right, speaks in Wilmington, Del., earlier this year. President Trump at the White House in April.
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The toss ups
There are eight states that are toss ups, plus one electoral vote in Maine, for 114 electoral votes — Florida (29 EVs), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and one electoral vote in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
(Maine and Nebraska apportion their electoral votes by the winner of each congressional district and statewide vote rather than awarding all of their electoral votes to the overall winner like the other 48 states and Washington, D.C.)
It’s notable that Biden is in the lead in all of these places, by less than 5 points in recent polls, except North Carolina, where Trump has a slight polling advantage. (There’s no recent data for Maine.)
Put another way: Trump needs to win 73% of the toss ups to win reelection. That’s not impossible. Trump ran the board in these states in 2016, winning 91% of their electoral votes and losing two of these states, Nevada and New Hampshire.
A supporters of President Trump wears a mask and dances, as he participates in a boat rally to celebrate Trump’s birthday in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Sunday.
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A supporters of President Trump wears a mask and dances, as he participates in a boat rally to celebrate Trump’s birthday in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Sunday.
Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images
Why are these states toss ups?
Florida: This has been perennially one of the closest states in presidential elections. Trump won it by just 1.2 percentage points. In the 2018 Democratic wave year, Republicans won the governorship and the U.S. Senate race. In 11 polls in Florida since the beginning of the year, Biden led in eight, and Biden and Trump tied in two. The president hasn’t led in one since March. Plus, he has seen a softening with support from older voters in national polls.
Pennsylvania: Trump won it by 0.7 percentage points, or about 44,000 votes. Registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in the state by about 814,000, but that advantage is down from November of 2016 when it was 916,000. Biden has had a narrow polling advantage in the state: Out of eight polls this year, he’s led in six and was tied in one.
Ohio: An oldie but a goody back on the battleground map. This very well may move into the Lean Trump category before all is said and done, given its demographic shift to be older and whiter over the years. Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, but in the past year, Biden has led in four of five polls, including a two point lead in a Fox News poll released earlier this month. The bottom line is that this is a state Trump should win, so if this trend continues, frankly, it’s bad news for the president elsewhere.
North Carolina: This is another state where the scales should at least tip toward Trump given its history of voting Republican in every presidential election since 1980, except 2008. But the demographic shift in the highly educated Research Triangle, in particular, has brought in a diverse group of new voters, shifting the electorate to the left. Trump, though, won the state by almost 4 points, and about 120,000 more voters supported Democrat Roy Cooper for governor in 2016 than voted for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, who lost by about 170,000 votes to Trump. Biden may need to win over the voters who went for Cooper and more to have a chance against Trump in North Carolina.
Arizona: Arizona might be the most fascinating toss up. Trump won it by about 3.5 percentage points in 2016, closer than many thought it would be, since the state had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. Ever since 2016, Democrats have done well here. Kyrsten Sinema became Arizona’s first woman elected to the Senate — and first Democrat in 30 years — with her 2018 victory. Democrats could see an up-ballot effect in 2020 with a strong candidate in astronaut Mark Kelly on the ballot for the Senate, holding significant leads in polls far beyond Biden’s showing. Getting out the Latino vote is key here — a demographic group that makes up 32% of the state, but were only 15% of voters in 2016. Organizing in Arizona isn’t as hard as other states, because three-quarters of the vote comes from two counties — Maricopa (including Phoenix) and Pima (including Tucson).
Wisconsin: Part of the old “Blue Wall” that came crumbling down on Democrats in 2016, Wisconsin is a state that Trump won by fewer than 23,000 votes after Barack Obama won it twice. But Trump’s approval rating is 11 points under water in the state now and hasn’t risen above 44% in more than three years. Biden has led in nine of 11 polls in Wisconsin since the beginning of the year, trailed in just one and was tied once. But Wisconsin polling was notoriously wrong in 2016. Trump didn’t lead in a single poll there in 2016 and Clinton was up an average of 6 points before losing.
Nevada: Clinton won Nevada by just 2 points, which starts it in the toss-up category. But it may slightly lean toward Biden, because Democrats have proved they can organize well in the state, and Nevadans are used to voting for Democrats up and down the ballot. Every statewide elected official, except the secretary of state, is a Democrat; both U.S. senators are, as are three of the state’s four members of Congress; and Democrats control the state legislature. Biden maintains a poll lead larger than Clinton held, and active Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in the state by more than 83,000. That is slightly narrower than January 2017, however, and Republicans hope that’s a positive trend in their direction.
New Hampshire: This was the closest state by raw votes in the 2016 election — only about 2,700 votes separated Clinton and Trump. New Hampshire is another state that, at this point, might be a slight lean toward Biden. The entire state’s congressional delegation is Democratic, though it has a Republican governor. Biden leads in the polls by an average of almost 5 points.
Maine’s 2nd District: Trump won the one electoral vote in the mostly rural, white 2nd Congressional District of Maine by 10 percentage points. But in 2018, Democrat Jared Golden won this House seat by a point, and Obama won here twice.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden holds a roundtable on reopening the economy with community leaders at the Enterprise Center in Philadelphia, Pa., on Thursday.
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Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden holds a roundtable on reopening the economy with community leaders at the Enterprise Center in Philadelphia, Pa., on Thursday.
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The “lean” states
Five states currently lean toward Biden for 53 electoral votes, including Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia. Three states — Texas, Georgia and Iowa, plus one electoral vote in the Omaha area of Nebraska — lean toward Trump, for 61 electoral votes.
Of the states leaning toward Biden, Clinton won all of them except Michigan. Trump won Michigan by just over 10,000 votes, or 0.2 percentage points. Since that victory, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer won the governorship, and Trump’s approval rating in the state has been upside down. His net approval rating in the state has declined by 18 points since he was inaugurated.
Minnesota was also surprisingly close in 2016, voting for Clinton by less than 2 percentage points. The Trump campaign, which has few expansion options, is targeting it, but Biden has led there. Now, one wonders how George Floyd’s killing at the hands of Minneapolis police will affect the vote there, especially given that majorities of Americans say Trump has made tensions worse since Floyd’s death.
Texas and Georgia are two historically red states that Democrats see as targets because of demographic changes. They may not be ripe for this election, but Trump will have to spend resources in both places. After all, Trump only won Georgia by five points and Texas by nine points, which was less than the margin in Iowa, a state Barack Obama won twice.
Speaking of Iowa, Trump’s trade war seems to have put Iowa back on the map. His approval rating is upside down there, too — 46% approve, 51% disapprove as of February, down a net of 14 points since he was inaugurated. Trump got about 801,000 votes in Iowa in 2016. But Obama won 21,000 more than that in 2012, so the votes are potentially there for a Democrat. Still, Trump winning here by 10 points gives him a lot of cushion.
6 Scenarios For How The 2020 Election Might Go
1. Hold the 2016 line
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We should start where 2016 left off. Trump’s path begins with a 36-electoral vote cushion to start with, after winning 306 electoral votes four years ago, giving him flexibility in a few states. He could lose Wisconsin and Michigan, for example, and still win. He could lose Pennsylvania and Michigan and still win. He could lose Florida and still win as long as he holds everything else.
The “faithless” electors: Trump technically wound up winning 304-227 over Hillary Clinton, not 306-232 as indicated by the results on election night, because there were seven “faithless electors” who defied how their states voted. Interestingly, just two (in Texas) went against Trump; five from states Clinton won voted for someone else, including four in Washington state and one in Hawaii. Before the 2016 election, there hadn’t been more than one faithless elector in any election dating back to 1948.
2. Trump expands and blows out
Take all the states that Trump won, plus states that are within 5 points in polls and give them to Trump, and you get Trump to a ceiling of 348 electoral votes to 190 for Biden. That includes giving him the Rust Belt, Sun Belt, Florida, New Hampshire, and the western states of Colorado and Nevada.
3. Biden blowout
Biden’s ceiling is higher than Trump’s. With the president’s approval rating down in lots of states he won in 2016, it’s possible that the election isn’t close in the end. Biden’s blowout scenario gets him 374 electoral votes to Trump’s 164. That would be higher than Obama’s 365 electoral votes in 2008.
To get to this outcome, take all the states that Clinton won, plus those that were either within 5 points in 2016 or are within 5 points now, and give them to Biden. That includes the old Rust Belt “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as Iowa and Ohio, which Obama won twice and where Trump’s approval rating is under water, and the Sun Belt states of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona, where Biden is either leading or within a few points of Trump in recent polling.
4. Rebuild the “Blue Wall”
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One of the most logical paths for Biden based on past presidential elections is rebuilding the so-called “Blue Wall” of upper Midwest states with a history of voting Democratic but went for Trump in 2016, tipping the balance.
Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by fewer than 78,000 votes, collectively. If Biden were to win all three back, he would win the election, 278 to 260.
Polls have been showing Ohio and possibly Iowa back in play for Democrats. If Biden wins in those Midwestern states, though, it would likely be a sizable victory given their recent right-leaning voting patterns.
A tie?
By the way, there is a realistic tie out of the “Blue Wall” scenario. Wisconsin is the most conservative politically of those three key states that Trump won in 2016. It’s conceivable that Biden wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump wins Wisconsin.
If that were to happen, Trump would eke out the narrowest of reelection victories, 270-268. That is unless Biden wins that one electoral vote in Maine that went to Trump last time, and then it’s 269-269. (What happens if there actually is a tie? Read on.)
5. Chasing the Sun Belt
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Democrats are threatening the GOP in traditionally Republican states, like Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. Texas is likely another election cycle or two off from really being competitive at the presidential level, but it will very likely cost the Trump campaign some money to lock it down in this one. Consider that Trump won Texas by less than Iowa in 2016 (and Obama won Iowa twice).
Here are a couple of reasons why the Sun Belt states are important to Trump holding or key to Biden winning. Take our last scenario, but take away Wisconsin from Biden. Trump would win 270-268. But Biden could trade Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes for Arizona’s 11 and win 279-259.
What’s more, underscoring the importance of North Carolina and Georgia, if Biden were to win Arizona, plus North Carolina or Georgia, he could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win. Georgia is a farther shot for Democrats, but North Carolina is a very real possibility.
6. Florida plus one
Scenario 5 says nothing about that crucial Sun Belt state of Florida. Florida is key for Trump’s reelection, and a Biden win there opens up lots of paths for him to win.
Trump could lose Florida and still win. But that’s only if he holds onto everything he won in 2016, including Michigan (which is currently leaning toward Biden), Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and the rest.
In other words, a Biden win in Florida makes Trump’s path exceedingly narrow. If Biden wins Florida, he would need to win just one other state Trump won in 2016, like, say, Michigan, to cross 270.
With a Florida-plus-Michigan map for Biden (see below), Biden could still lose Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, etc., and win. Even Florida plus Wisconsin or Arizona, which have fewer electoral votes than Michigan, gets Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold.
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]]>Welcome to Poll Watch, our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election.
It’s been a little over a month since Joseph R. Biden Jr. became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, and what a month it’s been.
Or rather, what a month it hasn’t been.
The race between Mr. Biden and President Trump ought to be basically underway by now, but the horses seem unsure of how to get out of the stable, particularly in the case of Mr. Biden, who has been sheltering in place at home since March.
While he has held consistent leads in most national and swing-state polls, they have not been altogether comfortable ones. And even as the public’s faith in Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic steadily erodes, Mr. Biden has struggled to establish a narrative that resonates with persuadable voters or motivates those on the left.
A CNN poll released on Wednesday found Mr. Biden leading the president by five percentage points nationwide, but trailing by seven points among voters in crucial battleground states. In that poll — conducted a week after Mr. Biden publicly denied allegations of sexual assault, to which he had initially hesitated to respond — the former vice president’s support among female voters and college graduates was badly diminished from recent months.
Still, most swing-state polls have shown Mr. Biden in the lead, and Mr. Trump’s persistently low approval rating bodes poorly.
“You have a president who hasn’t had a day with an approval rating over 50 percent,” said Joel Benenson, a veteran Democratic pollster, pointing to Gallup figures. “So you’re looking at a campaign that’s going to be a referendum on Donald Trump, and so far Trump is losing.”
But for some Democrats, the results of the CNN poll again raised the specter that Mr. Biden could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College, as Hillary Clinton and Al Gore both did.
The enthusiasm gap
Other recent surveys have been somewhat kinder to Mr. Biden than the CNN poll. A Monmouth University survey conducted earlier this month found him leading Mr. Trump by nine points nationwide, and largely holding onto his margins among women and well-educated voters. In a Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin voters released this week, Mr. Biden’s three-point edge over Mr. Trump was unchanged since March.
But even in that Monmouth poll there were signs that his virtual campaign has yet to instill passion in crucial parts of his coalition. Among liberal voters, 33 percent said they were less enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s election. Voter enthusiasm ran higher among conservatives; just 12 percent of those voters said they were less enthusiastic than in previous years.
The CNN poll painted a similar picture, but more starkly: Four in five Republican voters said they were quite enthusiastic about voting this year; just 56 percent of Democratic voters said the same.
Of course, it is still early to draw definitive conclusions from these numbers: Mr. Trump has been in office for over three years, and he continues to address the public in news conferences multiple times a week, while Mr. Biden’s general-election campaign has hardly gotten off the ground. That is precisely what worries some Democratic observers.
But Mr. Biden has largely stayed outside the spotlight in recent weeks — at the very moment when he might otherwise be expected to grab headlines with attacks on Mr. Trump’s leadership, and examples of how he would confront the pandemic.
In the CNN poll, voters were just six points more likely to say Mr. Biden would do a better job than Mr. Trump at responding to the virus outbreak. A month ago, the difference was nine points in Mr. Biden’s favor.
Asked about the economy, voters told CNN that Mr. Trump was their preferred steward by a margin of 12 points. A month ago, Mr. Trump led in this regard by just four points.
The Tara Reade allegation
In recent weeks Mr. Biden has been thrown off balance by the allegation of sexual assault lodged against him by Tara Reade, who briefly worked in his Senate office in the early 1990s.
In the Monmouth poll, 46 percent of Democratic voters said either that Ms. Reade’s accusation was probably true or that they weren’t sure. Among independent voters, nearly four in five selected one of those options; just 22 percent of independents said they didn’t believe the allegations.
The CNN poll found that Mr. Biden’s net favorability rating among all Americans had sunk by five points since March — a possible consequence of the Reade accusation, since Mr. Biden has not received much negative coverage on other fronts over the past few weeks. Looking only at registered voters, the drop in his favorability was more severe: to minus 5, from plus 3 in the March CNN poll. That dip was about even across women and men. (Monmouth also found positive views of Mr. Biden dropping slightly since March, though to a lesser degree.)
But in terms of actual voting preference, Mr. Biden appeared to have taken a particular hit among women and white college graduates, according to CNN. In head-to-head matchups with Mr. Trump, his lead shrank by half among women since last month — and even more among voters with a college degree. He now leads the president by 14 points among women, and by just four points among white college grads, according to the CNN poll.
The shrinking middle
Mr. Trump’s favorability rating has remained underwater in almost every major poll since the beginning of his presidency. It’s a vulnerability that Mr. Biden will be eager to exploit, even as he struggles to maintain a positive image of his own.
The recent Monmouth poll had signs of hope for Mr. Biden in this regard: Among voters who expressed unfavorable views of both him and Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden led the president by a significant margin. That would represent a reversal from 2016, when Mr. Trump beat Mrs. Clinton among voters with negative views of both candidates.
The share of voters expressing negative views of both candidates is much smaller this year than it was in 2016. Now more than ever, there are strong and stable bases of support on either political side: In the CNN poll, 95 percent of Democratic voters said they would support Mr. Biden, and the same share of Republicans said they would back Mr. Trump.
Even those individuals who identify as political independents tend to lean strongly toward one party or the other — and to hold adamant feelings about Mr. Trump’s leadership — meaning that there are vanishingly few voters who truly ride in the middle lane of American politics.
Across most general-election polls this year, the pool of voters saying they are undecided looks much smaller than it was in 2016.
Still, the Monmouth poll found that Mr. Biden held a 16-point margin in the counties where Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump ran nearest to even in 2016, a sign that he might have an advantage among the small slice of the electorate that is genuinely persuadable. In Monmouth’s poll just before the 2016 election, Mrs. Clinton led by about half that much among voters in similarly competitive counties.
“Those counties that are competitive are the ones where voters are much more likely to change their vote from one election to the next,” Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth poll, said in an interview. “How they behave from election to election tells us a lot about what’s important to voters.”
Updated May 15, 2020
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- Joseph R. Biden Jr. said that Americans “probably shouldn’t vote for me” if they believe Tara Reade’s sexual assault allegation, which he has denied.
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- A Republican flipped former Representative Katie Hill’s seat in California. Wisconsin and Nebraska also held votes Tuesday. See the results.
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