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]]>The Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket is ahead of the Donald Trump-Mike Pence ticket by a 51-46 percent margin. That 5 percentage-point advantage sits right at the margin of sampling error of the latest Fox News survey, taken after the Democratic and Republican national conventions.
Majorities of likely voters have a positive opinion of Biden and trust him over Trump on coronavirus, Supreme Court nominations, and uniting the country — and that nudges the former vice president just over 50 percent in the presidential race.
The national survey, released Sunday, is the first Fox News has conducted among likely voters this year and the first time it included running mates in the vote preference question.
Both tickets have secured the backing of their key voting blocs. Biden leads among women, suburban voters, seniors, millennials, Blacks, and Hispanics. Trump is ahead among men, Whites, rural voters, veterans, White Catholics, and Gen Xers.
“Despite the often tumultuous events of the day, campaigns are often about partisan homecoming. Trump may be benefiting from this dynamic,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “It looks like Republican-leaning undecided voters have come around, both in the ballot and his job ratings.”
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Most of those planning to cast a mail-in ballot support Biden (71 percent), while a majority of those planning to vote in person favors Trump (58 percent).
Likely voters trust Trump over Biden on just one issue: the economy, by 5 points. Biden is favored on racial inequality (+12), coronavirus (+8), health care (+8), Supreme Court nominations (+7), and immigration (+7 points).
Voters also trust Biden over Trump on “policing and criminal justice” (+7), while the two are rated about evenly on “maintaining law and order” (Biden +2).
Nearly 9 in 10 voters are concerned about unemployment and 8 in 10 about coronavirus, while just over 6 in 10 are concerned about crime and violence.
More describe the unrest in cities like Portland and Kenosha as riots rather than protests by a 48-40 percent margin, and more blame “left-wing radicals” than “right-wing radicals” when violence breaks out (39-33 percent). Thirty percent of Democrats join 68 percent of Republicans in describing the unrest as riots.
When asked who can bring the country together, likely voters say Biden by a 13-point margin.
Over 6 in 10 think Biden has the compassion to serve effectively as president (62 percent) and just over half say he has the mental soundness (51 percent). Just over half think Trump lacks the compassion (54 percent) and mental soundness (51 percent).
Pollpourri
Among registered voters:
— In the head-to-head matchup among registered voters, Biden gets 51 percent, up from 49 percent in mid-August before the conventions. Trump garners 46 percent, up from 42 percent — and the highest support he has received in a Fox News survey.
— Overall, majorities favor mail-in voting options due to coronavirus (64 percent) and feel confident those ballots will be counted accurately (55 percent). Most Democrats (71 percent) are confident in an accurate count of mail ballots, while most Republicans are not (60 percent).
— Forty-nine percent expect to know who won by the day after the election, while 46 percent believe it will take two or more days. Over two-thirds of Democrats (69 percent) and over half of Republicans (53 percent) are comfortable with the vote count going beyond election night. Election officials in several states have warned that ballot counting may take longer than usual this year due to the pandemic.
— Positive views on the economy are up: 38 percent say it is in excellent or good shape, up from 28 percent in August. In May, that number was 20 percent, the worst of Trump’s tenure.
— While more than 8 in 10 remain concerned about coronavirus spreading and over half disapprove of how Trump has responded to the virus, there is increased optimism about the U.S. controlling the pandemic. Thirty percent believe it is completely/mostly under control, up from 19 percent in August. Another 30 percent think it is somewhat under control and 40 percent say “not at all.” In July, a record 51 percent felt the virus was not at all under control.
— Fifty-four percent view Biden favorably and 45 percent unfavorably. For Trump, it is 46 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable. Both running mates made gains since the conventions: 51 percent view Harris favorably, up from 44 percent in August. And 48 percent view Pence positively, up from 41 percent.
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— Forty-eight percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, up from 44 percent in August. Some 51 percent disapprove. His best job rating, 49-49 percent, was in April 2020.
— On the issues, Trump continues to only receive positive job ratings on the economy (53 approve, 46 disapprove). His ratings are lower on foreign policy (46-51), health care (45-53), immigration (45-53), and race relations (40-57). With the exception of the economy, each of the issue approvals is a record high.
— Trump’s supporters are more motivated by enthusiasm for him (58 percent) than fear of Biden winning (39 percent), while for those backing Biden it’s more about fear of Trump being reelected (55 percent) than enthusiasm for his candidacy (43 percent). The “enthusiasm” number among Biden’s supporters is up 12 points since June when it stood at 31 percent.
— Fifty-one percent think Trump will be reelected. That’s up from 45 percent in July, but lags the 56 percent who felt that way in February.
Conducted September 7-10, 2020 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,311 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The survey includes results among 1,191 likely voters. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for both registered voters and likely voters.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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]]>We’re all living in an age where every social media post is scrutinized down to the smallest detail, so you can imagine the rigorous inspection that Joe Biden’s Instagram post announcing Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., was subject to.
WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT KAMALA HARRIS
To the untrained eye, Biden is seen sitting at a smart desk dressed in a crisp shirt chatting with Harris on a sleek Apple laptop. The décor was something you’d see in a cavernous library at an illustrious New England university.
TUCKER CARLSON: FIRST COMPLETELY HALLOW TICKET IN US HISTORY
But social media users were able to spot some irregularities upon closer inspection.
Benny Johnson, the chief creative officer at Turning Point USA, the conservative student organization, took to Twitter shortly after Biden’s announcement and identified a note tucked under the laptop that was tough to read but he said looked something like a “script.”
He noted that Biden is s holding his iPhone upside down and any eagle-eyed observer can also spot a cartoon on his desk with a character screaming, “WHY ME?!”
Biden’s defenders took to social media and said he is likely holding the phone upside down because another person was part of the conference and was on speaker phone.
The post illustrates how the 2020 campaign is in full swing after Biden’s selection of Harris.
Biden wrote in the post that it is his great honor to announce his selection of Harris as his pick for a running mate and called her a “fearless fighter for the little guy, and one of the country’s finest public servants.”
He also credited her work with his late son, Beau, and said, as attorney general, she“took on the big banks, lifted up working people, and protected women and kids from abuse.”
“I was proud then, and I’m proud now to have her as my partner in this campaign,” he posted.
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]]>The post ‘Turning point’ or massive risk? Trump gambles with a rally in Tulsa that could shape his campaign appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>CLOSE
After days of controversy over Trump’s choice to hold his first rally since the coronavirus lockdowns in Tulsa, Oklahoma, it was changed to July 20.
Wochit
TULSA, Okla. – When President Donald Trump returns to the campaign trail for a rally here Saturday he’ll be taking a high-stakes gamble that could set the pace of the presidential race for at least the rest of the summer, GOP allies and observers say.
Trump’s rally – his first since he addressed supporters in early March in North Carolina – has the potential to kickstart his struggling reelection effort, quiet critics questioning the wisdom of massive indoor events during the coronavirus pandemic and deliver to the White House a powerful talking point in the increasingly partisan battle over reopening.
It could also backfire: Undermining Trump’s rosy assertions about the course of the virus – and his administration’s response to it – at a time when his support is at a low point.
“They’re definitely taking a risk with this,” said Amy Koch, a Minnesota-based Republican strategist. “If there isn’t a spike, if there isn’t some kind of a ground zero effect, it’s going to embolden him – and it’s going to mean more rallies.”
On the other hand, if public health experts’ fears about the rally becoming a “super spreader” event are realized, it would almost certainly delay future rallies and undercut the president’s message that the country is on course for a quick recovery.
The risks to the rally were underscored by an extraordinary series of events that began Thursday night when Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum set a three-night curfew, citing the expected crowds of more than 100,000, the planned protests, and the civil unrest that has already erupted in the city and around the nation.
The tighter security meant Trump supporters lined up for the rally had to be moved further away from the 19,000-seat BOK Center. Some supporters had been camping out for days to get a good spot and the curfew raised questions about whether they would be able to remain near the site overnight Friday.
By Friday afternoon, the curfew was lifted after Bynum and Trump spoke by phone – a decision that was announced first by Trump on Twitter and then confirmed by the mayor.
Coronavirus: Health experts fear Trump’s rally could turn into a ‘super spreader’ event
Trump is expected to touch down in the Sooner State – one of the reddest states in the nation – around dinnertime and host his first rally since the coronavirus was declared a pandemic. As he strolls onto the stage in the BOK Center, with Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the USA” pouring through the speakers, he’ll face a dramatically different political scene than the one he was navigating three months ago.
More than 119,000 Americans have died from the virus, according to Johns Hopkins University. Several states, including Oklahoma, are experiencing alarming increases in new daily cases. The death of George Floyd, a Black man whose neck was pinned to the ground under the knee of a white police officer, sparked massive protests and has forced a reexamination of racism and police conduct. The unemployment rate has spiraled to levels not seen since the Great Depression.
Amid the crises, Trump’s polling numbers have been sliding. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, had a double-digit lead in a nationwide Fox News survey this week. Other independent polls show Biden running up the margins in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania – all critical battlegrounds.
More: Biden holds an 11-point lead over Trump as age, gender fault lines emerge, new survey shows
Tulsa could be a show of strength
Trump has described the Tulsa rally as the start of his campaign (though he had already held 10 rallies this year before the virus locked down businesses and schools). Republican allies predicted a massive turnout in Tulsa would not only send a message of strength but also give him a morale boost at a time when little else has gone his way.
Supporters also view the rally as a chance for Trump to draw a contrast with Biden, who has avoided large events during the pandemic. Officials with the Biden campaign declined to comment about the rally.
“A successful rally would be the launching pad for the rest of campaign season,” predicted Rep. Kevin Hern, an Oklahoma Republican who is planning to attend the rally. “Resuming the campaign rallies will force Joe Biden out of the basement and back onto the campaign trail, proving that Biden cannot compete with Trump.”
If there is not a spike in cases after the event, and if protests around the venue remain peaceful, several Republicans predicted the outcome would ease the campaign’s ability to organize future rallies – which Trump is eager to do. It could also help the GOP put on a full-scale convention, alleviating concerns delegates might have about attending.
“Restarting Trump’s rallies is the Democrats’ worst nightmare,” asserted Republican Lance Cargill, a former speaker of the state’s House of Representatives and now a political consultant. “Whether or not there is a spike in coronavirus cases, the point can and should be made that the lockdown-shutdown has run its course.”
The Trump campaign said the rally drew interest from more than a million people and that it expects tens of thousands to show. Among those who lined up early for the event was Rosie Matlock, who was seated in a blue folding chair and said she had kept her spot in line since Wednesday. The 68-year-old predicted the rally would be “a turning point” for Trump and like a “dose of medicine.”
Still, none of those predictions are a given. Public health officials in Oklahoma have warned against the rally for days, particularly given the recent spike in daily cases in the state. Oklahoma cases of COVID-19 rose by 450 on Thursday, blowing past the record of 259 cases a day earlier, according to the Oklahoma State Health Department.
Trump’s rally also poses big risks
The rally has already run into roadblocks: The campaign had to reschedule after it initially set the event for Juneteenth, the holiday celebrating the end of slavery in the United States. Trump has also faced a backlash for holding the rally in a city that was by many accounts home to one of the worst racial attacks in U.S. history.
And then there is the virus.
Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine at George Washington University, described the rally as a terrible idea “because it’s a crowded indoor venue, without the limit on attendees that would allow for adequate social distancing, and no requirement for face masks, in a city with rising COVID cases.”
Bynum wrote this week that the rally wasn’t his idea and said he shares the “anxiety about having a full house” for the event. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CBS News Radio this week that large congregations of people heighten the risk.
“There’s no doubt that it increases it,” he said.
And both Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, who has led the White House coronavirus response, raised concerns in recent days about the safety of the rally, NBC News reported Friday. The BOK Center, meanwhile, sent a letter to the Trump campaign late Thursday seeking more information about the campaign’s plan to keep attendees safe.
White House officials and Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, have insisted that the rally can take place safely. Stitt, who visited Trump at the White House on Thursday, said that hospitalizations remain low in the state.
“Oklahoma is ready for your visit. It’s going to be safe,” Stitt told Trump. “And we’re really, really excited.”
Trump and White House officials have noted that the campaign will distribute masks and hand sanitizer and check the temperature of attendees. The campaign did not respond to questions from USA TODAY this week about the cost of that equipment or the vendors for the supplies.
While rally attendees will receive masks, they won’t be required to wear them. They have also been asked to waive their rights to sue the Trump campaign if they get sick. But Trump officials have pushed back on the idea that the rally is gamble.
“We are confident that we can operate safely in Tulsa,” White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said Friday, adding that she would not wear a mask at the event.
Veteran Republican operative Stuart Stevens, a frequent Trump critic, questioned the notion that a successful rally would help the president reignite his campaign, though he predicted the president will declare it a success no matter how it turns out.
“I tend to think that Trump having rallies is bad for Trump,” said Stevens, arguing that the president is already “overexposed” on the virus and other issues.
“When is the last time Trump inserted himself in a situation and it benefited him?” Stevens asked. “As long as this race is about Trump he’s going to lose.”
Contributing: The Oklahoman
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]]>But some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the same problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage.
That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.
And those issues haven’t been fixed.
“I would say that most, if not all, of the concerns that we expressed still hold — some to a lesser degree,” said Courtney Kennedy, the director of research at the Pew Research Center and lead author of the polling industry’s post-2016 autopsy. “But I think some of the fundamental, structural challenges that came to a head in 2016 are still in place in 2020.”
Polling errors are not uncommon in presidential elections. But pollsters see a real risk this year that the same 2016 mistakes will be repeated. Their colleagues are still not accounting for the fact that voters with greater educational attainment are more likely to complete surveys — and more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.
“There’s still a number of state polls, in particular, that are not fixing this issue,” said Kennedy.
Biden’s current lead over Trump is so large — over 8 points in the national RealClearPolitics polling average, and an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that a 2016-level polling error wouldn’t matter. A lead that large would probably guarantee Trump would be denied a second term, and even a polling miss on par with 2016 wouldn’t be enough to overcome it.
But that doesn’t mean the president’s standing is quite as dire as it looks on paper — the same problem that pollsters identified in 2016 remains. Not enough surveys are being conducted in the battleground states, and those that exist are failing to account for a key political dynamic of modern politics, especially in the Trump era: the rapid movement of lower-income white voters to Republicans and upscale whites to Democrats.
Pollsters are looking for answers. One of the major takeaways of the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s post-2016 autopsy was that state polls that didn’t weight, or adjust, their samples to include more white voters who hadn’t graduated college missed a key element of Trump’s coalition. In previous elections, the differences in white voters’ preferences along educational lines were smaller, but began to grow last decade and accelerated with Trump on the ballot in 2016.
“Before 2014, it wasn’t that big of a deal because the reality is non-college white voters and college-educated white voters — the distinction between the two wasn’t as dramatic,” said Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock. “But starting with 2014, that began to cleave a lot and is now obviously humongous.”
GOP pollster Glen Bolger said he believes a combination of pollsters’ inability to get the right educational mix and to convince potential Trump voters to respond and answer truthfully to phone polls is pointing their surveys in a slight Democratic direction.
“I don’t know how big the effect is. I also don’t know what the ratio is between it being ‘shy Trump’ voters and interviewing too many college graduates and not enough non-college grads,” Bolger said. “But I do think those are factors in some of the polls that show a particularly wide lead for Biden at this point in time. And I do think that things will be closer in the states that the polls indicate right now.”
The question of polling accuracy came to head last week, after CNN published a national survey showing Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump among registered voters, 55 percent to 41 percent. The Trump campaign immediately went on the attack against its frequent foe: First, Trump himself tweeted out an internal campaign memorandum — prepared by John McLaughlin, one of his campaign’s pollsters — calling the CNN survey “skewed” against the president.
Then, Trump’s campaign sent CNN a letter, demanding that the cable network retract the survey results and apologize. CNN stood by their poll, which generally follows best practices and does weight by education. The denouement of the episode was a contentious interview of Trump campaign attorney Jenna Ellis on a CNN “Reliable Sources” that descended into shouting. (The Trump campaign also demanded an apology from CNN over host Brian Stelter’s conduct in the interview.)
While the CNN poll shows a larger lead for Biden than others, they all show the presumptive Democratic nominee with a significant advantage. Trump hasn’t led a national poll in the RCP database since February, and a Washington Post analysis found that pollsters that have conducted multiple surveys this year have consistently showed Biden gaining and Trump falling in their most recent polls.
The bigger problem appears to be in state polls, as evidenced by CNN’s own polling standards. The network’s polling standards state it won’t report on election surveys that “do not ensure that respondents of all education levels are adequately reflected.”
Pollock, the Democratic pollster and president of Global Strategy Group, described making “a lot of investments” in updating his own firm’s education models. “And that in itself is like a seismic change. Because whenever you have one variable like that that is so critical, if you’re getting it wrong, then the whole poll is wrong,” he said.
At last week’s annual AAPOR convention — held online because of the coronavirus pandemic — Nate Cohn, the New York Times data journalist who has worked with Siena College on their multi-million dollar polling partnership, observed that the state polls leaned way too far toward Democrats in 2014 and 2016. In 2018, he said, the polls were more accurate but still showed a Democratic slant, especially “in a number of white, working-class states,” like Indiana and Ohio.
And, Cohn noted in his presentation, it might be happening again this year.
“So far in 2020, it sure seems like Joe Biden is faring particularly well in the states where the polls were most biased toward Hillary Clinton four years ago,” Cohn told the virtual attendees.
As if on cue, a new poll was released in Michigan on Tuesday: it showed Biden ahead by a whopping 16 points.
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Published on Jun 13, 2020
President Trump on Saturday spoke to West Point graduates, thanking them for battling “the invisible enemy, the new virus, that came to our shores from a distant land called China.” He also thanked the National Guard for deploying during recent unrest.
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]]>June 13, 2020 | 9:57am | Updated June 13, 2020 | 10:50am
President Trump is addressing the 2020 graduating class of West Point, the first time he has spoken to cadets of the storied US Military Academy.
The graduation ceremony for the Class of 2020 is closed to all guests. Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said the school was aiming for a “small, safe graduation ceremony.”
Following similar guidelines from the US Air Force Academy ceremony in April, graduating West Point cadets were seated six feet apart from each other and Trump will dispense with the customary handshake for each graduate.
The speech comes as states around the country continue to loosen pandemic lockdown restrictions that have kept millions of Americans at home and without work for months.
Questions have been raised about ensuring safety at the commencement of more than 1,100 cadets.
Mandatory testing of the 1,100 last week revealed at least 15 cadets who tested positive for COVID-19, though none have shown symptoms.
Later Saturday Trump is expected to attend a big-money campaign fundraiser at his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Vice President Pence gave the graduation address to West Point cadets last year.
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]]>At West Point on Saturday Donald Trump will deliver a speech controversial by its very occurrence and due to tensions between the president and leaders of the US armed forces.
With New York state only beginning its reopening after the coronavirus outbreak, Trump will address graduates at the United States Military Academy, 40 miles up the Hudson river from New York City.
The city has been a global hotspot for Covid-19, recording more than 213,000 cases and more than 21,000 deaths.
Across the US, graduation ceremonies and commencement speeches have taken place online. But the 1,100 graduating cadets at West Point, who had been at home since early March, just before lockdowns began, were brought back to campus late last month.
They immediately underwent coronavirus testing and more than 15 who tested positive were isolated for two weeks before rejoining their classmates.
Some have decried the decision to bring the graduating second lieutenants back to campus to hear the president speak during a public health crisis. A group called Veterans For Peace announced a protest outside West Point’s main gate on Saturday, against what it called “Trump’s dangerous narcissistic Photo-Op Stunt at the West Point Graduation”.
Further strain has been placed on what would normally be one of the showpiece events of US public life by Trump’s pronouncements and actions in regard to widespread civil unrest over the killing of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis.
The president both threatened to use active duty troops against protesters and staged a controversial photo op at St John’s church, near the White House, before which peaceful demonstrators were teargassed and attacked by federal officers.
Gen Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the defense secretary, Mark Esper, joined Trump on his walk to the church. Both have said they should not have done so.
On Thursday, in a video address to graduates of the National Defense University, Milley said it had been “a mistake” to accompany Trump because his appearance fueled the perception of the military becoming embroiled in politics, in his view, shared by Esper, a threat to democracy itself.
An extraordinary expression of regret by the president’s chief military adviser, it came after extraordinary rebukes from senior soldiers including James Mattis, a former secretary of defense; Mike Mullen, a former chair of the joint chiefs; and John Allen, a former commander of forces in Afghanistan.
Trump also contradicted senior military leaders when he said he would not consider renaming military bases currently named for Confederate generals.
In the American civil war, from 1861 to 1865, the Confederacy fought against the federal government in an attempt to maintain slavery. It was defeated – a fact which didn’t stop Trump claiming the generals’ names stood for “Winning, Victory, and Freedom” – but major bases including Fort Hood, in Texas; Fort Bragg, in North Carolina; and Fort Benning, in Georgia, remain named for Confederate generals.
West Point has a barracks named for Robert E Lee, the most famous Confederate general who graduated from the academy.
Neither Esper nor Milley was expected to accompany Trump on Saturday. Esper was scheduled to deliver videotaped remarks.
This week, more than 500 West Point graduates from classes spanning six decades signed an open letter reminding the class of 2020 of their commitment to avoiding partisan politics.
“Sadly, the government has threatened to use the army in which you serve as a weapon against fellow Americans engaging in these legitimate protests,” the graduates wrote in the letter, which was published on Medium.
“Worse, military leaders, who took the same oath you take today, have participated in politically charged events. The principle of civilian control is central to the military profession. But that principle does not imply blind obedience.”
On Saturday, Trump tweeted that he was “soon heading to West Point Graduation to give the Commencement Address … Enjoy!”
He then returned to tweeting abuse of Joe Biden, his presumptive opponent in the election in November; claims that protesters over Floyd’s death are from the radical left; and ridicule of hosts and pundits from CNN and MSNBC.
Trump has famously refused to wear a mask in public or follow other precautionary measures against the coronavirus. The West Point cadets will wear masks as they march on to the parade field, which will be used instead of Michie Stadium, the usual commencement venue.
They will sit 6ft apart, following federal social distancing guidelines. Instead of shaking hands with the president, graduates will salute from a platform before the main dais. Guests are not allowed.
White House spokesman Judd Deere said: “Saturday’s graduation is about these incredible cadets and their amazing accomplishments, and as the commander in chief, President Trump wants to celebrate that and thank them for their service to our country.”
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