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Mike McMahon vacationed with his family at Disney World in late January. Back in Boston a few days later, he started to feel lousy.
He “couldn’t go from laying on the bed to sitting up without being out of breath,” he said.
A flu test came back negative, but an urgent care doctor prescribed Tamiflu anyway. The next day, a different doctor prescribed antibiotics and an inhaler for pneumonia. A second flu test came back negative. It was unclear what had caused his lungs to fill with fluid.
“None of it seemed to help,” McMahon said. “I never felt better.”
At that point, the U.S. had confirmed only about a dozen coronavirus cases. It would be a month more before Massachusetts reported its first case.
McMahon is among thousands of Americans who reported flu-like symptoms but who might’ve instead had COVID-19. Particularly in the early weeks of the pandemic when testing wasn’t yet widely available.
A USA TODAY analysis of historical flu and pneumonia surveillance data shows unusual patterns this year that experts believe are the result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The data show more people than usual reported flu-like symptoms while positive flu tests declined. Meanwhile, pneumonia deaths continued to rise. Typically, all three metrics rise and fall together.
That gap, health experts say, is probably COVID-19.
Some researchers now hope to use that data to detect and respond to the next big coronavirus outbreak as early as possible.
And some states, like Wisconsin, are using it as a benchmark — along with coronavirus testing — for decisions about how quickly to end lockdown measures.
Spike in US deaths and cases flaggedas pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact
Because so many people with COVID-19 develop symptoms similar to the flu, experts can monitor the weekly surveillance reports for spikes like those seen in many places in February and March and quickly respond.
State officials can tell which hospitals are seeing more coughs and fevers, giving them an early signal that coronavirus might have arrived in a particular area. It could be most useful for tracking the disease through communities without widespread testing.
“These systems, which don’t require a laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19, are going to be really useful,” said Ben Lopman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Emory University.
Flu or not
Nationwide, at least as early as January, patients like McMahon were flummoxing their doctors, arriving in clinics and hospitals with flu-like symptoms but testing negative for influenza. Many did not qualify for a coronavirus test at the time, even if one was available, but they were still counted by state officials in syndromic surveillance.
In Massachusetts, the flu season seemed to peak in the first week of February. Roughly 7% of people visiting hospitals reported flu-like symptoms, including McMahon.
By the first week of March, fewer than 4% of patients reported flu symptoms.
“The prevalence of flu in the community dropped off dramatically,” said Dr. Saul Weingart, chief medical officer at Tufts Medical Center in Boston.
Yet, Weingart said, patients were still arriving with serious respiratory symptoms.
State data shows another spike in the third week of March as the percentage of patients reporting a cough and fever grew to 7%. But only 570 tests came back positive for the flu that week, compared to about 6,000 the first week of February and 2,000 the first week of March.
Positive flu test rates dropped low enough that many doctors stopped testing for the flu altogether, Weingart said.
National flu data mirrors that of Massachusetts.
In the first week of February, influenza-like symptoms accounted for 7.1% of hospital visits then declined and later spiked again in late March to 7.4% even as fewer flu tests came back positive.
In March, nearly 300,000 Americans reported flu-like symptoms, which is 55% higher than 2019 when the number of hospitals reporting figures was similar. Only 12% of flu tests were positive compared to 24% the year before — about 64,000 more negative results.
Although some people who tested negative for the flu would later test positive for COVID-19, doctors say many did not qualify for a coronavirus test. Many states rationed testing supplies through March and April.
“There were definitely patients that I saw in January and February who I tested for flu, and the flu test was negative … that very well may have had COVID-19,” said Dr. Arvind Venkat, an emergency physician at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Pneumonia deaths grew
At the same time positive flu tests declined, more people were dying from pneumonia, which is typically caused by the flu or related bacterial infections.
“Given that pneumonia is one of the complications from having COVID-19, you’d anticipate undetected COVID cases that were listed as pneumonia.” said Timothy Lant from the BioDesign Institute at Arizona State University, who led modeling efforts for the U.S. Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response until 2017.
It certainly happened in China. It certainly happened in Italy,” Lant said. “And there’s evidence it’s happening here.”
Provisional death certificate data shows the trend most clearly.
In a typical year, about 11,300 Americans die from pneumonia in the last week of March and first two weeks of April. This year, nearly twice that many people died from it during the same period. In at least 31 states, pneumonia deaths were higher than average in March and early April.
More than 87,400 death certificates listed pneumonia as the cause of death but did not specify which pathogen triggered the condition, according to state data reported to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics since February.
“Without a doubt” some of the unclassified pneumonia deaths from this year include uncounted COVID-19 cases and could help explain the unusually high number of fatalities, said Dr. Matthew Boulton from the University of Michigan School of Public Health.
States with the most elevated figures of pneumonia deaths in March are known COVID-19 hotspots. In New York, pneumonia deaths were 76% higher than usual. They were 65% higher in New Jersey, 48% higher in Washington and 31% in the District of Columbia.
But some states with elevated pneumonia deaths haven’t made national headlines. Montana’s count of flu and pneumonia deaths for March — 36 — is the highest figure in at least five years and 64% higher than average. But the state reported only five COVID-19 deaths in March.
“I don’t think we truly know what the penetration rate was across the U.S.,” said Dr. Ted Ross, director of the Center for Vaccines and Immunology at the University of Georgia. “Different states had different capacities for testing. Ones with larger metro areas were able to concentrate testing to that location. Rural areas often were not touched by testing.”
The signal will be clearest this summer when the flu is not being spread.
Although death data is delayed compared to symptom surveillance, experts say it still is important to study and could influence future public health responses.
By reviewing deaths missed in initial COVID-19 tallies, officials can better understand how the coronavirus spread and identify gaps in testing, community outreach and healthcare access.
And scientists can target studies that reveal more about how the virus attacks the body, who is most at risk for severe symptoms, and how to predict its spread more accurately.
“Looking at that number (of unusually high deaths), some people may say that that’s not a lot,” said Angela Clendenin, whose research at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health includes pandemic response and communication.
“But the value of looking at that number and placing an importance on that number is letting their deaths mean something. What can we learn from it? What can we figure out from it that will help us save lives in the future?”
Contributing: USA TODAY reporters Jessica Priest, Kevin Crowe and Daveen Rae Kurutz.
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]]>The post Dow futures turn negative a day after stocks surge on vaccine hopes appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>Stock futures turned slightly lower in early trading Tuesday after the market scored its best session in six weeks a day earlier on rising optimism about a coronavirus vaccine.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average implied an opening loss of about 40 points, after moving more than 200 points higher in after-hours trading. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were also little changed.
The overnight action followed a strong rally on Wall Street that saw the Dow and S&P 500 both enjoying their biggest one-day gains since April 6. Investors cheered news that an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Moderna showed promising early signs. The 30-stock Dow jumped more than 900 points, while the S&P 500 closed the day up 3.2%, hitting its highest level since March 6.
Stocks that would benefit from re-opening the economy led the market higher on Monday. Cruise operator Carnival gained 15.2%, while Delta and United Airlines both popped more than 13%.
“With over 100 treatments and vaccines under development, a medical breakthrough, a more sophisticated test and trace model, and government support could drive more upside,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But our downside scenario cannot be ruled out. This could be triggered by a significant second wave of virus cases breaking out.”
With Monday’s gains, the S&P 500 has rebounded 32% from its March 23 low, now sitting about 13% below its record high in February.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify virtually before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in the first required update to Congress on the economic response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank’s commitment to using its “full range of tools” aimed at keeping markets functioning and getting money to those in need.
Retailers were also in focus on Tuesday, with Walmart, Home Depot and Kohl’s set to report earnings before the bell.
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]]>The post What negative interest rates would mean for your wallet appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>It’s hard to imagine being paid to borrow money or penalized for saving. But the economic shock from Covid-19 may call for drastic measures.
Up until this point, the Federal Reserve has never brought its benchmark rate into negative territory and, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is not considering going to negative interest rates now.
“The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed,” Powell said Wednesday. “This is not something that we’re looking at.”
Yet, “on some level, negative interest rates are inevitable in the U.S.,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “It’s just a matter of when.”
“Negative interest rates sound like fun but it’s nothing to wish for,” McBride said.
“It hasn’t even proven to be effective,” he added. “Parts of Europe have had negative interest rates for seven years and it hasn’t done anything — their economies were reeling then, they’re reeling now.”
And even if the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge one another for short-term borrowing, fell below zero, that is not the rate that consumers pay.
The prime rate, which is the rate that banks extend to their most creditworthy customers, is typically 3 percentage points higher than the federal funds rate.
For everyday Americans, negative interest rates would likely result in even lower mortgage rates and credit card rates, but “nobody is going to pay you to take out a loan,” McBride said. “Sorry.”
In fact, with so many people under severe financial strain, its getting harder and harder to borrow at all.
Despite already rock-bottom interest rates, banks are tightening lending standards across the board, shrinking the availability of credit.
It’s more likely that savers will lose any benefit to stashing cash, said Meenaz Sunderji, an executive vice president at banking software firm Zafin.
“Banks will charge you to hold your money for safekeeping,” he said.
In order to boost the economy, the idea is to force people to spend more, he explained.
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]]>The post The Fed won’t use negative interest rates to counteract the coronavirus recession, chairman Jerome Powell says appeared first on Virus Reports.
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Alex Wong/Getty
- The Federal Reserve remains averse to negative interest rates despite the gloomy economic backdrop, Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
- The US economic trajectory is still “highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks,” and additional aid is likely necessary stage a recovery, Powell added in a videoconference with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- The refusal to push rates lower comes one day after President Donald Trump renewed his call for negative interest rates in the US.
- Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.
The Federal Reserve may need to act further to pull the US economy out of its slump, but negative interest rates are still out of the question, Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
Potential for the unconventional policy tool resurfaced on Tuesday after President Donald Trump praised the “gift” and called on the US to adopt such rates. Even as the current downturn grows “significantly worse than any recession since World War II,” the central bank hasn’t changed its stance on pushing its interest rate lower, Powell said.
“The committee’s view on negative rates has not changed. This is not something we’re looking at,” he said in a videoconference with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
While Powell stopped at detailing what additional actions the Fed may take, he noted the US economic rebound will likely be more chaotic than first expected. The nation’s path forward remains “highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks,” the chair warned in his prepared remarks.
“There is a sense that the recovery may come more slowly than we would like, but it will come. And that may mean that it’s necessary for us to do more,” Powell added in a question-and-answer portion.
Powell’s bleak tone immediately shook US markets. Equities erased early gains and opened lower on Wednesday as the Fed chief detailed his view of the current economic backdrop.
The Fed’s refusal to drag rates below zero could be a blessing in disguise for long-term investors, Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, said. Any short-term benefits such policy would bring the US would likely give way to long-term market dislocation, she added.
“What’s more, experience outside the United States suggests that slashing rates has distorted financial markets, crippled bank lending and threatened pensions systems worldwide,” Shah said. “Indeed, central banks have been reconsidering the wisdom of negative policy rates, with the Swedish Riksbank exiting negative rates altogether.”
The central bank is more likely to boost its asset purchases and lending programs before considering negative rates, the strategist noted. The Fed began its corporate-bond ETF purchases on Tuesday, opening the first of its credit facilities for companies struggling through the virus-induced collapse.
The Fed’s interest rate sits at a range of 0% to 0.25%, a historic floor last implemented during the 2008 financial crisis.
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]]>The post Oil costs are negative, however rates at the pump will not follow appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>As the coronavirus pandemic saps need for oil throughout the United States, petroleum costs dropped 306 percent on Monday to -$3763 per gallon, its least expensive level given that 1983, however don’t anticipate to see that at the pump.
” At this moment, it doesn’t appear like gas will be matching the unmatched drop in the WTI crude oil May contract today,” Patrick DeHaan, Gasbuddy’s senior petroleum analyst, told FOX Organisation in an email.
While DeHaan does not expect the drop to have any result on retail gas prices, it doesn’t mean the national average will not fall.
DeHaan told “The Claman Countdown” he might see the nationwide average for routine gas, which is approximately $1.77 per gallon according to Gasbuddy, falling considerably over the next few weeks, getting previous lows from 2016 and even 2000.
” We are most likely, here in the next 10 days, to fall under previous 2016 lows, and as we continue to decrease there’s a good possibility we’ll get the 2000 low with the national typical falling to $1.49 per gallon or more.” DeHaan stated.
STOCKS TANK AS OIL FALLS LISTED BELOW NO FOR VERY FIRST TIME EVER
He attributes the drop in petroleum to a lack in need considering that there is “essentially no one to require these barrels of oil” as lots of people have stopped travelling to work and have sheltered in place because of the pandemic.
Motorists wait on gas in Detroit, Friday, April 10,2020 Gas rates are falling because commuters, vacationers and road trippers are doing none of those things due to the coronavirus. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
However DeHaan kept in mind that the decline in demand is beginning to slow down.
” We are seeing a slowdown now in the decrease,” DeHaan said. ” The decrease had actually been really getting momentum a couple of weeks ago however that has slowed.”
The reason for the slowdown is that gasoline station owners watch out for cutting their costs too quickly to match the need for crude, although they may have the capacity to drop the cost per gallon. DeHaan thinks corner store are keeping back on decreasing gas prices in order to “take in the margin” as stations get ready for the worst.
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The collapse in oil sent out the markets toppling throughout Monday’s trading session.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I: DJI | DOW JONES AVERAGES | 2365044 | -59205 | -2.44% |
| SP500 | S&P 500 | 282316 | -5140 | -1.79% |
| I: COMPENSATION | NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX | 8560728396 | -8941 | -1.03% |
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tipped over 592 points or 2.3 percent while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down 1.79 percent and 1.03 percent, respectively.
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