WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
UPDATE `wp_options` SET `option_value` = 'a:15:{s:21:\"id_slug_type_path_map\";a:1:{i:1431;a:3:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";s:4:\"type\";s:6:\"plugin\";s:4:\"path\";s:37:\"ilab-media-tools/ilab-media-tools.php\";}}s:11:\"plugin_data\";a:1:{s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";a:30:{s:16:\"plugin_main_file\";O:8:\"stdClass\":1:{s:4:\"path\";s:37:\"ilab-media-tools/ilab-media-tools.php\";}s:20:\"is_network_activated\";b:0;s:17:\"install_timestamp\";i:1590575783;s:17:\"was_plugin_loaded\";b:1;s:21:\"is_plugin_new_install\";b:0;s:16:\"sdk_last_version\";s:5:\"2.6.2\";s:11:\"sdk_version\";s:5:\"2.7.0\";s:16:\"sdk_upgrade_mode\";b:1;s:18:\"sdk_downgrade_mode\";b:0;s:19:\"plugin_last_version\";s:5:\"4.6.2\";s:14:\"plugin_version\";s:5:\"4.6.4\";s:19:\"plugin_upgrade_mode\";b:1;s:21:\"plugin_downgrade_mode\";b:0;s:17:\"connectivity_test\";a:6:{s:12:\"is_connected\";b:1;s:4:\"host\";s:16:\"virusreports.net\";s:9:\"server_ip\";s:12:\"91.187.95.36\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1590575783;s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"3.3.21\";}s:15:\"prev_is_premium\";b:0;s:12:\"is_anonymous\";a:3:{s:2:\"is\";b:1;s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1590575802;s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"3.3.21\";}s:14:\"has_trial_plan\";b:0;s:22:\"install_sync_timestamp\";i:1669820589;s:19:\"keepalive_timestamp\";i:1669820589;s:16:\"last_license_key\";s:32:\"29a39c221b0aa00cce0f4662daf6542b\";s:20:\"last_license_user_id\";N;s:15:\"is_whitelabeled\";b:0;s:20:\"activation_timestamp\";i:1590576202;s:13:\"subscriptions\";a:1:{i:0;O:15:\"FS_Subscription\":20:{s:2:\"id\";s:6:\"104441\";s:7:\"updated\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 11:18:22\";s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 10:43:19\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:7:\"user_id\";s:7:\"3108640\";s:10:\"install_id\";s:7:\"4721959\";s:7:\"plan_id\";s:4:\"4634\";s:10:\"license_id\";s:6:\"360855\";s:11:\"total_gross\";d:8.99;s:16:\"amount_per_cycle\";d:8.99;s:13:\"billing_cycle\";i:1;s:19:\"outstanding_balance\";i:0;s:15:\"failed_payments\";i:0;s:7:\"gateway\";s:6:\"paypal\";s:11:\"external_id\";s:14:\"I-GS60RRYM35BC\";s:10:\"trial_ends\";N;s:12:\"next_payment\";N;s:11:\"canceled_at\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 11:18:22\";s:6:\"vat_id\";N;s:12:\"country_code\";s:2:\"ad\";}}s:9:\"beta_data\";a:2:{s:7:\"is_beta\";b:0;s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"3.3.23\";}s:14:\"sync_timestamp\";i:1669820589;s:9:\"sync_cron\";O:8:\"stdClass\":5:{s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"3.3.21\";s:7:\"blog_id\";i:0;s:11:\"sdk_version\";s:5:\"2.3.1\";s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1590580984;s:2:\"on\";b:1;}s:21:\"trial_promotion_shown\";i:1593702258;s:30:\"affiliate_program_notice_shown\";i:1593702258;s:19:\"last_load_timestamp\";i:1788430051;}}s:13:\"file_slug_map\";a:2:{s:37:\"ilab-media-tools/ilab-media-tools.php\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";s:45:\"ilab-media-tools-premium/ilab-media-tools.php\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";}s:7:\"plugins\";a:1:{s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";O:9:\"FS_Plugin\":24:{s:2:\"id\";s:4:\"1431\";s:7:\"updated\";N;s:7:\"created\";N;s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:1;s:10:\"public_key\";s:32:\"pk_f20e8088bc078daafd3a20b6f653d\";s:10:\"secret_key\";N;s:16:\"parent_plugin_id\";N;s:5:\"title\";s:11:\"Media Cloud\";s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";s:12:\"premium_slug\";s:24:\"ilab-media-tools-premium\";s:4:\"type\";s:6:\"plugin\";s:20:\"affiliate_moderation\";s:8:\"selected\";s:19:\"is_wp_org_compliant\";b:1;s:22:\"premium_releases_count\";N;s:4:\"file\";s:37:\"ilab-media-tools/ilab-media-tools.php\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"4.6.4\";s:11:\"auto_update\";N;s:4:\"info\";N;s:10:\"is_premium\";b:0;s:14:\"premium_suffix\";s:9:\"(Premium)\";s:7:\"is_live\";b:1;s:9:\"bundle_id\";N;s:17:\"bundle_public_key\";N;s:17:\"opt_in_moderation\";N;}}s:9:\"unique_id\";s:32:\"76bc5468b0fafc3e561fa1535364edb6\";s:5:\"plans\";a:1:{s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";a:7:{i:0;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"MjA1NQ==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAxOS0wMS0yMCAxNTowNjo0Mg==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxNy0wOS0zMCAwOTozOToxNg==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:8:\"ZnJlZQ==\";s:5:\"title\";s:8:\"RnJlZQ==\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"support_kb\";N;s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";N;s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}i:1;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"NDYzMg==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAyMC0wNy0xNSAxNzoyNDowMg==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxOC0xMi0wOSAxNzowNTozMw==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:8:\"YmFzaWM=\";s:5:\"title\";s:8:\"QmFzaWM=\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:10:\"support_kb\";s:44:\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXBwb3J0Lm1lZGlhY2xvdWQucHJlc3M=\";s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";s:28:\"aGVscEBtZWRpYWNsb3VkLnByZXNz\";s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}i:2;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"NzA2MA==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAyMC0wNy0xNSAxNzoyNDo0Ng==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxOS0wOC0xNiAxODoyNzowMQ==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:20:\"bXVsdGlzaXRlX2Jhc2lj\";s:5:\"title\";s:20:\"TXVsdGlzaXRlIEJhc2lj\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"support_kb\";s:44:\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXBwb3J0Lm1lZGlhY2xvdWQucHJlc3Mv\";s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";s:28:\"aGVscEBtZWRpYWNsb3VkLnByZXNz\";s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}i:3;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"NDYzNA==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAyMC0wNy0xNSAxNzoyMzoyMA==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxOC0xMi0wOSAxNzowOToxOA==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:4:\"cHJv\";s:5:\"title\";s:4:\"UHJv\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:10:\"support_kb\";s:44:\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXBwb3J0Lm1lZGlhY2xvdWQucHJlc3M=\";s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";s:28:\"aGVscEBtZWRpYWNsb3VkLnByZXNz\";s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}i:4;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"NzIxNg==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAyMC0wNy0xNSAxNzoyNToxNQ==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxOS0wOC0yOSAwNDo0NDoxMA==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:20:\"bXVsdGlzaXRlX3Bybw==\";s:5:\"title\";s:20:\"TXVsdGlzaXRlIFBybw==\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"support_kb\";s:44:\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXBwb3J0Lm1lZGlhY2xvdWQucHJlc3M=\";s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";s:28:\"am9uQGludGVyZmFjZWxhYi5jb20=\";s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}i:5;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"NzIxNw==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAyMC0wNy0xNSAxNzoyNTozOA==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxOS0wOC0yOSAwNDo1MDoxOQ==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:28:\"bXVsdGlzaXRlX3VubGltaXRlZA==\";s:5:\"title\";s:28:\"TXVsdGlzaXRlIFVubGltaXRlZA==\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"support_kb\";s:44:\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXBwb3J0Lm1lZGlhY2xvdWQucHJlc3M=\";s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";s:28:\"am9uQGludGVyZmFjZWxhYi5jb20=\";s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}i:6;O:14:\"FS_Plugin_Plan\":22:{s:2:\"id\";s:8:\"NDYzNQ==\";s:7:\"updated\";s:28:\"MjAyMC0wOS0wNCAxNzoyNToxNg==\";s:7:\"created\";s:28:\"MjAxOC0xMi0wOSAxNzoxODoyMw==\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:8:\"MTQzMQ==\";s:4:\"name\";s:8:\"YWdlbmN5\";s:5:\"title\";s:8:\"QWdlbmN5\";s:11:\"description\";N;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:17:\"is_block_features\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"license_type\";s:4:\"MA==\";s:16:\"is_https_support\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"trial_period\";N;s:23:\"is_require_subscription\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:10:\"support_kb\";s:44:\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXBwb3J0Lm1lZGlhY2xvdWQucHJlc3M=\";s:13:\"support_forum\";N;s:13:\"support_email\";s:28:\"am9uQGludGVyZmFjZWxhYi5jb20=\";s:13:\"support_phone\";N;s:13:\"support_skype\";N;s:18:\"is_success_manager\";s:4:\"MQ==\";s:11:\"is_featured\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"is_hidden\";N;}}}s:14:\"active_plugins\";O:8:\"stdClass\":3:{s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1615474488;s:3:\"md5\";s:32:\"1e32a299fdcdafa009ca51c5cb9bc76c\";s:7:\"plugins\";a:23:{s:19:\"akismet/akismet.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:7:\"akismet\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"4.1.5\";s:5:\"title\";s:17:\"Akismet Anti-Spam\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:11:\"amp/amp.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:3:\"amp\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.5.3\";s:5:\"title\";s:3:\"AMP\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:63:\"www-xml-sitemap-generator-org/www-xml-sitemap-generator-org.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:29:\"www-xml-sitemap-generator-org\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.3.4\";s:5:\"title\";s:28:\"Google XML Sitemap Generator\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:65:\"newsomatic-news-post-generator/newsomatic-news-post-generator.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:30:\"newsomatic-news-post-generator\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"2.4.4\";s:5:\"title\";s:35:\"Newsomatic Automatic Post Generator\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:57:\"ssl-insecure-content-fixer/ssl-insecure-content-fixer.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:26:\"ssl-insecure-content-fixer\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"2.7.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:26:\"SSL Insecure Content Fixer\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:37:\"td-cloud-library/td-cloud-library.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"td-cloud-library\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"1.5 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:20:\"tagDiv Cloud Library\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:27:\"td-composer/td-composer.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:11:\"td-composer\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"2.6 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:15:\"tagDiv Composer\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:37:\"td-mobile-plugin/td-mobile-plugin.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"td-mobile-plugin\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"1.4 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:19:\"tagDiv Mobile Theme\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:31:\"td-newsletter/td-newsletter.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"td-newsletter\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"1.5 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:17:\"tagDiv Newsletter\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:39:\"td-social-counter/td-social-counter.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:17:\"td-social-counter\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"4.7 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:21:\"tagDiv Social Counter\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:37:\"td-standard-pack/td-standard-pack.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"td-standard-pack\";s:7:\"version\";s:36:\"1.0 BETA | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:20:\"tagDiv Standard Pack\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:81:\"update-theme-and-plugins-from-zip-file/update-theme-and-plugins-from-zip-file.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:38:\"update-theme-and-plugins-from-zip-file\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.1.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:38:\"Update Theme and Plugins from Zip File\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:31:\"wp-statistics/wp-statistics.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"wp-statistics\";s:7:\"version\";s:7:\"12.6.13\";s:5:\"title\";s:13:\"WP Statistics\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:37:\"ilab-media-tools/ilab-media-tools.php\";a:15:{s:4:\"Name\";s:11:\"Media Cloud\";s:9:\"PluginURI\";s:48:\"https://github.com/interfacelab/ilab-media-tools\";s:7:\"Version\";s:6:\"3.3.21\";s:11:\"Description\";s:150:\"Automatically upload media to Amazon S3 and integrate with Imgix, a real-time image processing CDN. Boosts site performance and simplifies workflows.\";s:6:\"Author\";s:12:\"interfacelab\";s:9:\"AuthorURI\";s:22:\"http://interfacelab.io\";s:10:\"TextDomain\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";s:10:\"DomainPath\";s:0:\"\";s:7:\"Network\";b:0;s:10:\"RequiresWP\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"RequiresPHP\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"Title\";s:11:\"Media Cloud\";s:10:\"AuthorName\";s:12:\"interfacelab\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";}s:29:\"a3-lazy-load/a3-lazy-load.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:12:\"a3-lazy-load\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"2.3.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:12:\"a3 Lazy Load\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:49:\"autoremove-attachments/autoremove-attachments.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:22:\"autoremove-attachments\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.1.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:22:\"Autoremove Attachments\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:43:\"remove-category-url/remove-category-url.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:19:\"remove-category-url\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.1.6\";s:5:\"title\";s:19:\"Remove Category URL\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:74:\"wp-404-auto-redirect-to-similar-post/wp-404-auto-redirect-similar-post.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:36:\"wp-404-auto-redirect-to-similar-post\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.0.3\";s:5:\"title\";s:36:\"WP 404 Auto Redirect to Similar Post\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:27:\"wp-super-cache/wp-cache.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:14:\"wp-super-cache\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.7.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:14:\"WP Super Cache\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:31:\"ninjafirewall/ninjafirewall.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"ninjafirewall\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"4.2.5\";s:5:\"title\";s:26:\"NinjaFirewall (WP Edition)\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:55:\"remove-yoast-seo-comments/remove-yoast-seo-comments.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:25:\"remove-yoast-seo-comments\";s:7:\"version\";s:3:\"3.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:25:\"Remove Yoast SEO Comments\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:39:\"simple-wp-sitemap/simple-wp-sitemap.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:17:\"simple-wp-sitemap\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.2.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:17:\"Simple Wp Sitemap\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:24:\"wordpress-seo/wp-seo.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"wordpress-seo\";s:7:\"version\";s:4:\"15.0\";s:5:\"title\";s:9:\"Yoast SEO\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}}}s:11:\"all_plugins\";O:8:\"stdClass\":3:{s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1610722496;s:3:\"md5\";s:32:\"1ff5e8068ccc517ab9df7827a605c79e\";s:7:\"plugins\";a:24:{s:19:\"akismet/akismet.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:7:\"akismet\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"4.1.5\";s:5:\"title\";s:17:\"Akismet Anti-Spam\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:5:\"4.1.8\";}s:11:\"amp/amp.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:3:\"amp\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.5.3\";s:5:\"title\";s:3:\"AMP\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:6:\"2.0.10\";}s:63:\"www-xml-sitemap-generator-org/www-xml-sitemap-generator-org.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:29:\"www-xml-sitemap-generator-org\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.3.4\";s:5:\"title\";s:28:\"Google XML Sitemap Generator\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:5:\"1.3.5\";}s:37:\"ilab-media-tools/ilab-media-tools.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"3.3.21\";s:5:\"title\";s:11:\"Media Cloud\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:6:\"4.1.14\";}s:65:\"newsomatic-news-post-generator/newsomatic-news-post-generator.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:30:\"newsomatic-news-post-generator\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"2.4.4\";s:5:\"title\";s:35:\"Newsomatic Automatic Post Generator\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:7:\"3.0.1.3\";}s:57:\"ssl-insecure-content-fixer/ssl-insecure-content-fixer.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:26:\"ssl-insecure-content-fixer\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"2.7.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:26:\"SSL Insecure Content Fixer\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:37:\"td-cloud-library/td-cloud-library.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"td-cloud-library\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"1.5 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:20:\"tagDiv Cloud Library\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:30:\"1.5 | built on 17.06.2020 8:12\";}s:27:\"td-composer/td-composer.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:11:\"td-composer\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"2.6 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:15:\"tagDiv Composer\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:30:\"2.6 | built on 17.06.2020 8:12\";}s:37:\"td-mobile-plugin/td-mobile-plugin.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"td-mobile-plugin\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"1.4 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:19:\"tagDiv Mobile Theme\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:30:\"1.4 | built on 17.06.2020 8:12\";}s:31:\"td-newsletter/td-newsletter.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"td-newsletter\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"1.5 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:17:\"tagDiv Newsletter\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:39:\"td-social-counter/td-social-counter.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:17:\"td-social-counter\";s:7:\"version\";s:31:\"4.7 | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:21:\"tagDiv Social Counter\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:37:\"td-standard-pack/td-standard-pack.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:16:\"td-standard-pack\";s:7:\"version\";s:36:\"1.0 BETA | built on 06.05.2020 14:38\";s:5:\"title\";s:20:\"tagDiv Standard Pack\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:81:\"update-theme-and-plugins-from-zip-file/update-theme-and-plugins-from-zip-file.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:38:\"update-theme-and-plugins-from-zip-file\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.1.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:38:\"Update Theme and Plugins from Zip File\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:5:\"2.0.0\";}s:31:\"wp-statistics/wp-statistics.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"wp-statistics\";s:7:\"version\";s:7:\"12.6.13\";s:5:\"title\";s:13:\"WP Statistics\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:6:\"13.0.5\";}s:49:\"wp-statistics-rest-api/wp-statistics-rest-api.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:22:\"wp-statistics-rest-api\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.2.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:24:\"WP Statistics - REST API\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:29:\"a3-lazy-load/a3-lazy-load.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:12:\"a3-lazy-load\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"2.3.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:12:\"a3 Lazy Load\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:5:\"2.4.3\";}s:49:\"autoremove-attachments/autoremove-attachments.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:22:\"autoremove-attachments\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.1.2\";s:5:\"title\";s:22:\"Autoremove Attachments\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:5:\"1.2.1\";}s:43:\"remove-category-url/remove-category-url.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:19:\"remove-category-url\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.1.6\";s:5:\"title\";s:19:\"Remove Category URL\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:74:\"wp-404-auto-redirect-to-similar-post/wp-404-auto-redirect-similar-post.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:36:\"wp-404-auto-redirect-to-similar-post\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.0.3\";s:5:\"title\";s:36:\"WP 404 Auto Redirect to Similar Post\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:27:\"wp-super-cache/wp-cache.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:14:\"wp-super-cache\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.7.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:14:\"WP Super Cache\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:31:\"ninjafirewall/ninjafirewall.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"ninjafirewall\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"4.2.5\";s:5:\"title\";s:26:\"NinjaFirewall (WP Edition)\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:5:\"4.3.1\";}s:55:\"remove-yoast-seo-comments/remove-yoast-seo-comments.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:25:\"remove-yoast-seo-comments\";s:7:\"version\";s:3:\"3.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:25:\"Remove Yoast SEO Comments\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:39:\"simple-wp-sitemap/simple-wp-sitemap.php\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:17:\"simple-wp-sitemap\";s:7:\"version\";s:5:\"1.2.1\";s:5:\"title\";s:17:\"Simple Wp Sitemap\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}s:24:\"wordpress-seo/wp-seo.php\";a:6:{s:4:\"slug\";s:13:\"wordpress-seo\";s:7:\"version\";s:4:\"15.0\";s:5:\"title\";s:9:\"Yoast SEO\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:0;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"Version\";s:6:\"15.6.2\";}}}s:10:\"all_themes\";O:8:\"stdClass\":3:{s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1615474488;s:3:\"md5\";s:32:\"c7608adb62521fe1c683d1fdd1039cf9\";s:6:\"themes\";a:1:{s:9:\"Newspaper\";a:5:{s:4:\"slug\";s:9:\"Newspaper\";s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"10.3.5\";s:5:\"title\";s:9:\"Newspaper\";s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;}}}s:5:\"sites\";a:1:{s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";O:7:\"FS_Site\":26:{s:2:\"id\";s:7:\"4721959\";s:7:\"updated\";s:19:\"2022-11-11 15:49:12\";s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 10:43:17\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:10:\"public_key\";s:32:\"pk_6e950b674c6966af990cfa14cff7d\";s:10:\"secret_key\";s:32:\"sk_J}Yv][+DKV$b?j1Qoh3aj*?5FO78K\";s:7:\"site_id\";s:8:\"29644807\";s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:4:\"1431\";s:7:\"user_id\";s:7:\"3108640\";s:5:\"title\";s:12:\"Virus Report\";s:3:\"url\";s:24:\"https://virusreports.net\";s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"4.5.11\";s:8:\"language\";s:5:\"en-US\";s:16:\"platform_version\";s:5:\"5.8.6\";s:11:\"sdk_version\";s:5:\"2.4.5\";s:28:\"programming_language_version\";s:6:\"7.4.30\";s:7:\"plan_id\";s:4:\"2055\";s:10:\"license_id\";N;s:13:\"trial_plan_id\";N;s:10:\"trial_ends\";N;s:10:\"is_premium\";b:0;s:15:\"is_disconnected\";b:0;s:9:\"is_active\";b:1;s:14:\"is_uninstalled\";b:0;s:7:\"is_beta\";b:0;s:7:\"charset\";s:5:\"UTF-8\";}}s:5:\"users\";a:1:{i:3108640;O:7:\"FS_User\":13:{s:2:\"id\";s:7:\"3108640\";s:7:\"updated\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 10:43:19\";s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 10:43:16\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:10:\"public_key\";s:32:\"pk_d59257bb9e82a4b8e004a8c305a03\";s:10:\"secret_key\";s:32:\"sk_[~lJoxs51=yv_[!0boAFtR!qH^N88\";s:5:\"email\";s:16:\"vizboo@yahoo.com\";s:5:\"first\";s:6:\"vizboo\";s:4:\"last\";s:2:\"yu\";s:11:\"is_verified\";b:0;s:11:\"customer_id\";N;s:5:\"gross\";i:0;s:7:\"is_beta\";b:0;}}s:23:\"user_id_license_ids_map\";a:1:{i:1431;a:1:{i:3108640;a:3:{i:0;i:360876;i:1;i:360858;i:2;i:360855;}}}s:12:\"all_licenses\";a:1:{i:1431;a:3:{i:0;O:17:\"FS_Plugin_License\":21:{s:2:\"id\";s:6:\"360876\";s:7:\"updated\";s:19:\"2020-06-08 11:08:49\";s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 11:00:50\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:4:\"1431\";s:7:\"user_id\";s:7:\"3108640\";s:7:\"plan_id\";s:4:\"4634\";s:16:\"parent_plan_name\";N;s:17:\"parent_plan_title\";N;s:17:\"parent_license_id\";N;s:8:\"products\";N;s:10:\"pricing_id\";s:4:\"3792\";s:5:\"quota\";i:1;s:9:\"activated\";i:1;s:15:\"activated_local\";i:0;s:10:\"expiration\";s:19:\"2020-06-08 10:08:49\";s:10:\"secret_key\";s:32:\"sk_3sFp^Ov>pTgwHb!j6jnt0}=96-Ss;\";s:15:\"is_whitelabeled\";b:0;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";b:1;s:17:\"is_block_features\";b:1;s:12:\"is_cancelled\";b:1;}i:1;O:17:\"FS_Plugin_License\":21:{s:2:\"id\";s:6:\"360858\";s:7:\"updated\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 11:00:50\";s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 10:48:38\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:4:\"1431\";s:7:\"user_id\";s:7:\"3108640\";s:7:\"plan_id\";s:4:\"4634\";s:16:\"parent_plan_name\";N;s:17:\"parent_plan_title\";N;s:17:\"parent_license_id\";N;s:8:\"products\";N;s:10:\"pricing_id\";s:4:\"3792\";s:5:\"quota\";i:1;s:9:\"activated\";i:0;s:15:\"activated_local\";i:0;s:10:\"expiration\";s:19:\"2020-06-27 10:00:00\";s:10:\"secret_key\";s:32:\"sk_OH_+BJ<*Hk<QjK{L*oIu{quIxpo4y\";s:15:\"is_whitelabeled\";b:0;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";b:1;s:17:\"is_block_features\";b:1;s:12:\"is_cancelled\";b:0;}i:2;O:17:\"FS_Plugin_License\":21:{s:2:\"id\";s:6:\"360855\";s:7:\"updated\";s:19:\"2020-06-27 14:55:34\";s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-05-27 10:43:19\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:9:\"plugin_id\";s:4:\"1431\";s:7:\"user_id\";s:7:\"3108640\";s:7:\"plan_id\";s:4:\"4634\";s:16:\"parent_plan_name\";N;s:17:\"parent_plan_title\";N;s:17:\"parent_license_id\";N;s:8:\"products\";N;s:10:\"pricing_id\";s:4:\"3792\";s:5:\"quota\";i:1;s:9:\"activated\";i:0;s:15:\"activated_local\";i:0;s:10:\"expiration\";s:19:\"2020-06-27 10:00:00\";s:10:\"secret_key\";s:32:\"sk_I&Cicy<vyjUtE#Rd~cYWo}+;D4p_K\";s:15:\"is_whitelabeled\";b:0;s:17:\"is_free_localhost\";b:1;s:17:\"is_block_features\";b:1;s:12:\"is_cancelled\";b:0;}}}s:13:\"admin_notices\";a:1:{s:16:\"ilab-media-tools\";a:0:{}}s:7:\"updates\";a:1:{i:1431;O:13:\"FS_Plugin_Tag\":12:{s:2:\"id\";s:5:\"18751\";s:7:\"updated\";i:1593183304;s:7:\"created\";s:19:\"2020-06-26 05:18:34\";s:22:\"\0FS_Entity\0_is_updated\";b:0;s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"3.3.23\";s:3:\"url\";s:386:\"https://api.freemius.com/v1/installs/4721959/updates/18751.zip?is_premium=true&authorization=FSLA+4721959%3AiW00UNsMipIXufak3QeXd9sbagAr1QsjAJcrKDsZey3uBFSQt9BEh_ZkaMGt2e6XQSWXKpnWXoqLXjeM9MylAnaZn9DEln6QAUUPSz1qBsxQuzSparj2YBjnKPusOgZmAiQxRtU0lAc2A18Q8SkFvIT6WbV8BmNaHr5J0pfTBiH5hFsH6f6w7JUgJwmByN2S5QKL9Zuud0YHV4VGPaDmoUd1en0Y3AU06ZqHGHZhRbhe-G7v24kMWJ8zR6zD_JAhPa4MNgJ44C_dShqm807rSg\";s:25:\"requires_platform_version\";s:3:\"4.4\";s:37:\"requires_programming_language_version\";N;s:20:\"tested_up_to_version\";s:3:\"5.4\";s:8:\"has_free\";b:1;s:11:\"has_premium\";b:1;s:12:\"release_mode\";s:8:\"released\";}}}' WHERE `option_name` = 'fs_accounts'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
DELETE FROM `wp_options` WHERE `option_name` = '_site_transient_wp_theme_files_patterns-1de0d11b1124cfe2057b1fd8f32658d3'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
DELETE FROM `wp_options` WHERE `option_name` = '_site_transient_timeout_wp_theme_files_patterns-1de0d11b1124cfe2057b1fd8f32658d3'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
INSERT INTO `wp_options` (`option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES ('_site_transient_timeout_wp_theme_files_patterns-1de0d11b1124cfe2057b1fd8f32658d3', '1788431851', 'off') ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE `option_name` = VALUES(`option_name`), `option_value` = VALUES(`option_value`), `autoload` = VALUES(`autoload`)

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
INSERT INTO `wp_options` (`option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES ('_site_transient_wp_theme_files_patterns-1de0d11b1124cfe2057b1fd8f32658d3', 'a:2:{s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"10.3.5\";s:8:\"patterns\";a:0:{}}', 'off') ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE `option_name` = VALUES(`option_name`), `option_value` = VALUES(`option_value`), `autoload` = VALUES(`autoload`)

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
DELETE FROM `wp_options` WHERE `option_name` = '_transient_tsk_attachment_count'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
DELETE FROM `wp_options` WHERE `option_name` = '_transient_timeout_tsk_attachment_count'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
INSERT INTO `wp_options` (`option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES ('_transient_timeout_tsk_attachment_count', '1788516451', 'off') ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE `option_name` = VALUES(`option_name`), `option_value` = VALUES(`option_value`), `autoload` = VALUES(`autoload`)

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
INSERT INTO `wp_options` (`option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES ('_transient_tsk_attachment_count', '51', 'off') ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE `option_name` = VALUES(`option_name`), `option_value` = VALUES(`option_value`), `autoload` = VALUES(`autoload`)

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
DELETE FROM `wp_options` WHERE `option_name` = '_transient_tsk_posts_count'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
DELETE FROM `wp_options` WHERE `option_name` = '_transient_timeout_tsk_posts_count'

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
INSERT INTO `wp_options` (`option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES ('_transient_timeout_tsk_posts_count', '1788516451', 'off') ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE `option_name` = VALUES(`option_name`), `option_value` = VALUES(`option_value`), `autoload` = VALUES(`autoload`)

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
INSERT INTO `wp_options` (`option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES ('_transient_tsk_posts_count', 'a:2:{s:11:\"total_posts\";i:101;s:9:\"old_posts\";i:101;}', 'off') ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE `option_name` = VALUES(`option_name`), `option_value` = VALUES(`option_value`), `autoload` = VALUES(`autoload`)

WordPress database error: [The table 'wp_options' is full]
UPDATE `wp_options` SET `option_value` = '1788430051.9754760265350341796875' WHERE `option_name` = '_transient_doing_cron'


Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /var/www/clients/client0/web46/web/wp-includes/class-wpdb.php:1845) in /var/www/clients/client0/web46/web/wp-includes/feed-rss2.php on line 8
model Archives - Virus Reports http://virusreports.net/tag/model/ Thu, 17 Sep 2020 17:21:22 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.7 https://s3.us-west-1.wasabisys.com/virusreports/2020/05/cropped-virus-favicon-32x32.png model Archives - Virus Reports http://virusreports.net/tag/model/ 32 32 Former model Amy Dorris says President Trump sexually assaulted her https://virusreports.net/former-model-amy-dorris-says-president-trump-sexually-assaulted-her/ https://virusreports.net/former-model-amy-dorris-says-president-trump-sexually-assaulted-her/#respond Thu, 17 Sep 2020 17:21:22 +0000 https://virusreports.net/former-model-amy-dorris-says-president-trump-sexually-assaulted-her/ Former model Amy Dorris has accused President Donald Trump of sexually assaulting her during a US Open tournament in September 1997, according to an exclusive report by the Guardian. Her account is now among more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct that have been brought against the president. Dorris alleges that Trump forcibly kissed her…

The post Former model Amy Dorris says President Trump sexually assaulted her appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>

Former model Amy Dorris has accused President Donald Trump of sexually assaulting her during a US Open tournament in September 1997, according to an exclusive report by the Guardian. Her account is now among more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct that have been brought against the president.

Dorris alleges that Trump forcibly kissed her and groped her outside the bathroom of his VIP box at the US Open, allegations that he denied through his lawyers. Dorris says she was visiting New York City with her then-boyfriend Jason Binn, who introduced her to Trump. Both she and Binn watched the US Open in Trump’s VIP box, and attended events with him in other parts of the city that September. After she went to use the restroom at the US Open, Dorris says, Trump approached her.

“He just shoved his tongue down my throat and I was pushing him off. And then that’s when his grip became tighter and his hands were very gropey and all over my butt, my breasts, my back, everything,” Dorris told the Guardian, adding that she told him to stop. “I was in his grip, and I couldn’t get out of it.”

The publication confirmed that Dorris had told both a friend in the city and her mother about the incident — both of whom corroborated her account. Binn did not offer comment to the Guardian for the article, though Trump’s lawyers say Binn has told them he does not recall Dorris telling him about any inappropriate behavior by Trump. Dorris says she does not remember if she told him about the alleged assault, but tells the Guardian she asked him to tell Trump to back off more broadly.

Dorris said she had thought about coming forward in 2016 but was concerned about the potential backlash she and her family might face. She says she ultimately decided to do so this year, in part because she wants to set an example for her twin daughters. “Now I feel like my girls are about to turn 13 years old and I want them to know that you don’t let anybody do anything to you that you don’t want,” she told the Guardian.

Dorris’s account adds to more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct that have been levied against Trump

Trump has now faced allegations of sexual misconduct from at least 22 women. He’s also openly bragged about committing sexual assault in a leaked Access Hollywood tape, during which he talked about grabbing women “by the pussy.”

As Vox’s Anna North has reported, the sexual misconduct allegations against Trump span decades, though it appears the Republican Party has been content to keep overlooking them as he runs for reelection this year:

There was Jessica Leeds, who said Trump grabbed her breasts and tried to put his hand up her skirt when they were seated on a flight together in the 1980s. “He was like an octopus,” she told the New York Times. “His hands were everywhere.”

There was Natasha Stoynoff, who said that when she visited Mar-a-Lago to write a People magazine story about Trump in 2005, he pushed her up against a wall and forced his tongue down her throat. Melania Trump was pregnant at the time.

And there was Summer Zervos, who said Trump invited her to dinner with him at the Beverly Hills Hotel in 2007. She went, hoping for career help. Instead, she said, Trump brought her to his private bungalow, where he touched her breast and pressed his genitals against her.

Writer E. Jean Carroll is one of the women who most recently came forward; she accused Trump of raping her in the dressing room of an upscale department store in the 1990s, which he has denied. Both Carroll and Zervos also have ongoing defamation lawsuits against Trump, who has publicly attacked their looks and their motivations for coming forward.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has also been accused of sexual assault — by former Senate staffer Tara Reade, an allegation he’s denied. High-profile Democrats have largely supported Biden despite the allegation, with many saying they’re satisfied with his denial.

The GOP’s response to the allegations against Trump this cycle also shows how the party’s attitudes on them have shifted during his presidency. In 2016, there was uproar from some members of the Republican Party after the Access Hollywood tape leaked, predominantly driven by women. Since then, however, it appears many GOP lawmakers have simply accepted the existence of these allegations and are continuing to back Trump for the presidency anyway. Last June, after Carroll came forward, many top Republicans said they were satisfied with Trump’s denial of her allegation, emphasizing that they stood by the president.

The party’s reaction to past allegations suggests that Dorris’s account is unlikely to affect support from many members of Trump’s base come November.


Help keep Vox free for all

Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what’s happening in the news, from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower you through understanding. But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources. Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers, your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work. If you have already contributed, thank you. If you haven’t, please consider helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world: Contribute today from as little as $3.

Read More

The post Former model Amy Dorris says President Trump sexually assaulted her appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/former-model-amy-dorris-says-president-trump-sexually-assaulted-her/feed/ 0
Coronavirus model forecasts 1.9 million more deaths in 2020: Live https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-forecasts-1-9-million-more-deaths-in-2020-live/ https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-forecasts-1-9-million-more-deaths-in-2020-live/#respond Sat, 05 Sep 2020 05:21:05 +0000 https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-forecasts-1-9-million-more-deaths-in-2020-live/ Iraq's health ministry has warned hospitals may "lose control" in the coming days as the country has recorded its highest single-day rise in coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) does not expect widespread vaccinations against COVID-19 until the middle of next year, a spokeswoman said, stressing the importance…

The post Coronavirus model forecasts 1.9 million more deaths in 2020: Live appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
  • Iraq’s health ministry has warned hospitals may “lose control” in the coming days as the country has recorded its highest single-day rise in coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic.
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) does not expect widespread vaccinations against COVID-19 until the middle of next year, a spokeswoman said, stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.
  • Brazil’s caseload topped four million as Australia extended its ban on international travel for three more months and New Zealand announced it will retain current restrictions until mid-September as a precautionary measure.
  • More than 26.5 million people around the world have been diagnosed with the coronavirus, and more than 872,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. More than 17.6 million people have recovered.

Here are the latest updates:

Saturday, September 5

04:34 GMT – Victoria police brace for anti-lockdown rallies

Police in Australia’s hardest-hit Victoria stare are urging people to stay away from rallies protesting the lockdown in Melbourne, as the country’s death toll rose to 748.

The Melbourne restrictions, including a night curfew, were put in place in an attempt to reduce a huge spike in infections and deaths.

Four men have been arrested and charged with incitement over the so-called “Freedom Day” protests planned for several Melbourne locations. Police have also warned about 80 people against attending the rallies as they enforce Victoria’s lockdown rules.

INSIDE STORY | Why are people protesting against coronavirus restrictions? (25:11)

04:27 GMT – S Korea posts fewest cases in three weeks

South Korea recorded 168 new coronavirus cases as of midnight on Friday, posting the lowest daily tally in three weeks after imposing stricter social distancing rules to contain a second wave of infections.

The total number of cases rose to 21,010, with 333 deaths, according to the data published by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

South Korea’s daily tallies have been hovering below 200 over the past three days after peaking at 441 late last week, a sign that tougher social distancing curbs implemented last Sunday have begun taking effect.

“The numbers are indeed on a downward trend but it’s too early for us to be at ease,” Health Minister Park Neung-hoo told a meeting on Saturday.

South Korea church groups in conflict with COVID-19 efforts (2:24)

04:19 GMT – Mexico states run out of death certificates

The coronavirus pandemic has hit Mexico so hard that the governments of several states ran out of death certificates.

Officials said Friday the federal forms started running out about 15 to 20 days ago in at least three states – Baja California, the State of Mexico and Mexico City.

Authorities say a million new forms have been printed and are being distributed. The certificates are printed with special characteristics because falsification has been a problem in the past.

03:28 GMT – Indigenous Brazilians launch tracing app

Indigenous and environmental organizations in Brazil launched an app aimed at alerting indigenous communities to the spread of the coronavirus pandemic in their lands.

“The application maps and periodically updates the situation regarding the pandemic in cities within a 100 kilometer radius of indigenous lands,” said the Coordination of the Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon (COIAB) and the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) in a joint statement.

The app, called “Covid-19 Indigenous Alert” aims to help indigenous people identify areas with high infection rates.

UN: COVID-19 ‘grave threat’ to the world’s Indigenous people (2:01)

02:12 GMT – UNGA president says ‘inclusion is key’ for vaccine

Tijjani Muhammad-Bande, president of the United Nations General Assembly, warned that a vaccine for COVID-19 must be made available to everyone who needs it because if just one country is left out the world will still face a crisis from the coronavirus.

As the world looks to a vaccine and a post-COVID-19 world, the Nigerian diplomat also warned that “inclusion is key, because without inclusion the suffering of those who are already left behind, will continue – and we cannot guarantee peace in that kind of a context”.

01:47 GMT – Egypt arrests journalist sick with COVID-19

Security forces in Egypt have arrested a journalist who had been in quarantine after testing positive for the coronavirus, an international press watchdog said, citing his wife.

Security forces raided El-Sayed Shehta’s home in northern Egypt earlier in the week, confiscating his laptop, cell phone, money and IDs, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) said, adding that it remains unclear whether he faces any charges. Shehta is the deputy managing editor of the Al-Youm Al-Sabae newspaper.

Officers took Shehta to a police station in the Nile Delta city of Zagazig, where he collapsed and lost consciousness, CPJ reported. He remains shackled to a hospital bed in the city.

Social Distancing: The Dos and Don’ts (2:18)

01:31 GMT – Former Cook Islands leader dies of COVID-19

Joseph Williams, a former prime minister of the Cook Islands, has died of COVID-19 in Auckland, New Zealand’s health ministry said.

Williams, who was in his 80s, was a well-known doctor as well as a politician and author, living in New Zealand. He was briefly prime minister of the Cook Islands in 1999 after having served as the South Pacific nation’s minister of health and education.

“Dr Williams was seen as a leading figure in the Cook Islands medical community and he will be sadly missed,” New Zealand’s director-general of health, Ashley Bloomfield, said in a statement.

Much respected doctor and former Cook Islands PM, Joseph Williams, has passed away. A fitting tribute here from his medical colleagues, who say his “generosity and kindness has touched many”. @NewshubNZ #COVID19nz https://t.co/Zt4WKzvrSv

— Michael Morrah (@MichaelMorrah) September 4, 2020

00:46 GMT – Global model predicts 1.9 million more deaths by end of 2020

A widely cited model from the University of Washington predicts worsening outbreaks as winter returns to the Northern Hemisphere, with daily deaths expected to reach as high as 30,000 deaths during December.

The global COVID-19 death toll could total 2.8 million by January 1, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year.

Mask mandates and social distancing could save hundreds of thousands of lives, but there is “a tremendous amount of COVID fatigue” among the world’s government leaders because of economic downturns, said Dr Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

He added: “We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States. But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”

The IHME model projects the wave will peak in the United States in early December at about 2,900 deaths per day. India, the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Japan will lead the world in total deaths by January 1, according to the forecast.

00:17 GMT – Mozambique to lift state of emergency

Mozambique will next week lift the state of emergency imposed in April to try to limit the spread of coronavirus, President Filipe Nyusi announced in a television address.

Nyusi said the state of emergency would end on Sunday night and the country will reopen its borders the following day. Beaches will also reopen while religious services of up to 250 people will be permitted.

“We are proud of the measures we have taken that have allowed the spread of the disease to be contained,” said President Nyusi.

Confirmed coronavirus cases in Mozambique stood at 4,265 including 26 deaths, much lower than neighbouring South Africa, which has topped 635,000 infections.


Hello and welcome to Al Jazeera’s continuing coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. I’m Zaheena Rasheed in Male, Maldives. 

For key developments from yesterday, September 4, go here

Read More

The post Coronavirus model forecasts 1.9 million more deaths in 2020: Live appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-forecasts-1-9-million-more-deaths-in-2020-live/feed/ 0
The ‘model minority’ myth: Its impact on well-being and mental health https://virusreports.net/the-model-minority-myth-its-impact-on-well-being-and-mental-health/ https://virusreports.net/the-model-minority-myth-its-impact-on-well-being-and-mental-health/#respond Sat, 01 Aug 2020 01:21:13 +0000 https://virusreports.net/the-model-minority-myth-its-impact-on-well-being-and-mental-health/ The “model minority” myth implies that certain ethnic minorities are better than others: better at adjusting to a different culture, more hardworking, more academically gifted. But this false narrative can segregate communities and cause a lot of harm to mental health and other aspects of well-being.Share on PinterestSome ethnic minorities in the United States have…

The post The ‘model minority’ myth: Its impact on well-being and mental health appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>

The “model minority” myth implies that certain ethnic minorities are better than others: better at adjusting to a different culture, more hardworking, more academically gifted. But this false narrative can segregate communities and cause a lot of harm to mental health and other aspects of well-being.

man alone in the office after hoursShare on Pinterest
Some ethnic minorities in the United States have had to deal with the damaging pressure of a decades-old narrative: the “model minority” myth.

Recently, public discussions and debates around the many and varied manifestations of racism and discrimination have brought back into focus the impact of a decades-old narrative haunting the United States: the model minority myth.

It suggests that some ethnic minorities are exemplars by others. A model of conduct, socio-cultural integration, and academic proficiency, among others.

On the surface, the model minority set-up may sound positive. However, it has historically led to ethnic segregation, and promotes stereotypes that impact well-being and aspects of mental health. It can also prevent individuals from seeking and receiving any formal support they may need.

Traditionally, this narrative has targeted primarily Asian-American groups, pitting them against other ethnic minorities, and instilling a mindset of self-stigmatization.

To better understand the impact of this myth on well-being and healthcare, Medical News Today reached out to Hee-Young*, an Asian-American who has been working hard to unpick the effects of the model minority myth on her own life, and to Prof. Gordon Nagayama Hall, from the University of Oregon.

Prof. Hall specializes in culture and mental health, cultural adaptations of psychotherapy, and Asian-American psychology.

The model minority myth is not a new phenomenon. It has its roots in political narratives promoted in the U.S. during the Cold War.

In 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson proclaimed the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, which eased previous restrictions on immigration from Asian countries. It came in symbolic opposition to prior acts of violence against people of Japanese and Chinese ancestry.

The concept of model minority first appeared in a 1966 article from The New York Times, entitled “Success Story, Japanese-American Style,” which alluded to the discrimination and violence suffered by Japanese people at the hands of U.S. authorities before and during World War II. It then proceeded to commend these individuals for having successfully integrated into North American society.

Similar articles followed this, all focused on the successful integration of Asian groups in the U.S. One example is “Success Story of One Minority Group in U.S.,” which appeared in U.S. News and World Report, and seemed to praise the progress of Chinese-Americans.

In speaking to MNT, Hee-Young emphasized that to properly understand the pervasiveness and negative impact of the model minority myth, one must first understand its history:

“I think what’s so crucial to understand this is that, first [we should not remove] that ‘myth’ part of the in that phrase [model minority myth], because it is a myth in such an intentionally crafted […] way. I think that’s what so many people don’t know […] It was so intentionally created to maintain this idea of white superiority and white supremacy, and to hurt other minority groups and pit them against each other.”

In time, the myth created further social rifts — for instance, by influencing white groups to negatively compare Black Americans with Asian-Americans.

It also rendered those, who internalized positive stereotypes promoted by the myth, to feel inadequate if they experienced mental, emotional, academic, or economic turmoil, putting them off from seeking help for fear of tainting that positive image.

Finally, it has also contributed to the lack of adequate healthcare services and medical research through the lumping together of Asian-American — and, more recently, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander — populations without acknowledging cultural, socioeconomic, and other differences between these groups.

A study published in JAMA Network Open in 2019 shows a stringent lack of funding for disaggregated medical research focusing on Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander populations.

“Population projections indicate we are going to be a very diverse America. But if we don’t recognize the diversity with the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander populations, we’re not going to have a good picture of the health outcomes for these groups,” says study co-author Lan Doan, a doctoral researcher at Oregon State University.

“There are ethnic and cultural groups that need more tailored health interventions. Public health is not one size fits all,” she emphasizes.

The long-lived circulation of the model minority myth has also meant that many ethnic minority individuals in the U.S. have internalized the stereotypes it promotes. Therefore, they have to be indomitably hardworking, academically gifted, and ultimately successful in their careers and economic goals.

In speaking to MNT, Prof. Hall told us this myth tends to affect later-generation Asian-Americans a lot more than first-generation migrants.

“The myth is U.S.-based, and those born in the U.S. are more exposed to the myth and more influenced by it than their immigrant parents,” he explained.

Other specialists suggest those who have internalized the model minority myth may feel additional pressure to succeed, which can affect their mental health and well-being.

More specifically, “Research by Brandon Yoo and colleagues indicates that the impact of the myth on Asian-Americans is negative emotions and feeling inferior to others,” Prof. Hall told us.

Hee-Young corroborated this with her personal experience. She told MNT: “I personally had internalized that racism and oppression so intensely, and I saw myself becoming the smaller one and becoming the inferior one, especially when I was interacting with my white friends or other white people, and I [initially] didn’t understand where it came from.”

The internalized pressure to perform can also lead individuals to experience impostor syndrome, or feelings of shame and guilt as they face a fear of letting others down.

A 2020 study published in The Counseling Psychologist indicates this. In a group of 433 Asian-American university students, it found that there was a “positive association between impostor feelings and psychological distress […] partially mediated by interpersonal shame.”

Prof Hall explained:

“When Asian-Americans’ academic performance or other achievements do not live up to the myth, they may struggle internally. Even if they personally perceive the model minority myth to be a myth, there may still be family or community pressure to live up to it.”

While Hee-Young did not feel impostor syndrome was an adequate term to describe her own experiences, she noted that the systemic racism subtly spreading the model minority myth helped make her feel silenced, occasionally inadequate, and emotionally fatigued.

“It definitely affected me in all these ways, and I’m still unpacking how it’s affected me,” Hee-Young said.

“Because I showed those tendencies [that appeared to be consistent with the stereotypes], because other people said that about me, because I thought, ‘oh yeah, Asian people are quiet and hardworking,’ so maybe that’s just the way I am.”

“I feel so silenced and so exhausted […],” she continued. “But that’s a tendency I have, and I think so much of it has been shaped by the ways that I understood myself, and the ways that I told myself that I was, because of all these external factors.”

Hee-Young’s well-being has also been affected by another contradiction that she has had to grapple with: living with undocumented status while being a so-called model minority.

This has further contributed to her sense of fear and silencing:

“I think my life was a contradiction. Everything I knew was a contradiction. And after learning about the history of [the model minority myth], it makes sense, because it was a contradiction. […] I think, especially with my undocumented status — that was a contradiction for me. It seemed like ‘Asian’ and ‘undocumented’ were opposite, and they could never go together, and I didn’t understand how they could.”

Internalization of the model minority myth also stops people from seeking mental healthcare even if they need it.

In a chapter featured in the book Prejudice, Stigma, Privilege, and Oppression, Prof. Hall and his collaborator, Ellen R. Huang, speak of why Asian-Americans are largely invisible as clients and patients in healthcare.

They explain that while Asian Americans appear to have a lower prevalence of mental illnesses than the general U.S. population, they are also less likely to seek care when they do need it.

Past studies suggest a direct relation between internalized positive stereotypes and a reluctance to access mental healthcare among those affected by the model minority myth.

For instance, a study published in Cultural Diversity and Ethnic Minority Psychology in 2014 explained: “The inverse relation between internalized model minority myth and help-seeking attitudes is consistent with the argument that the model minority stereotype acts as a barrier in Asian American help-seeking.”

“One possibility is that a stronger belief in the model minority myth may motivate an individual to highly value emotional self-control to maintain a positive self-image of what it means to be an Asian American in the [U.S.],” its authors hypothesize.

But there are other obstacles at play as well. In Prejudice, Stigma, Privilege, and Oppression, Prof. Hall and Huang explain that many mental healthcare professionals are ill-equipped to address the impact of stereotypes, such as those perpetuated by the model minority myth, and that they often downplay the emotional effect of subtle discrimination in the form of microaggressions.

Indeed, mental healthcare professionals may engage in microaggressions themselves, further alienating clients from different ethnic backgrounds.

“Microaggressions perpetuated by clinical psychologists can be the same one perpetuated by the public,” Prof. Hall explained to MNT.

“These include the ‘forever foreigner’ stereotype, assuming that an Asian American is not fully American. This can create a sense of exclusion,” he noted.

“The achievement stereotype can create unrealistic performance expectations for Asian Americans. Psychologists’ stereotypic approaches to Asian Americans (e.g., all Asian Americans are family-oriented, expect structure in therapy) can also interfere with a therapeutic alliance. Rather than making broad assumptions about Asian Americans as a group, a personalized approach, that integrates universal, cultural group, and individual considerations, is most likely to be effective in therapy.”

– Prof. Gordon Nagayama Hall

Prof. Hall argued for the importance of proper cultural training for mental healthcare professionals, explaining that this would help specialists better address their clients’ individual experiences within the context of their cultural mindsets, among others.

Hee-Young also told MNT that she was able to benefit from counseling sessions, mainly thanks to the fact that her counselor understood her experience as an undocumented person and an Asian American.

“[I went to see the counselor who] was the point person for the undocumented student group. […] I told him about my [undocumented] status […] He was also Asian American, so that was also a big [factor],” Hee-Young said.

Aside from promoting encounters with professionals who understand their needs and backgrounds, Prof. Hall argued that Asian Americans should also receive more visibility in medical research.

“One way of eradicating stereotypes of Asian Americans is for the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to devote more resources to research on Asian Americans. Doan and colleagues reported that in the past 25 years, only 0.17% of NIH-supported research has focused on Asian Americans,” he noted.

“Additional research and training health professionals about these stereotypes are the first steps in eradicating them.”

– Prof. Gordon Nagayama Hall

* This is not the contributor’s real name. We have used a pseudonym to protect her identity.

Read More

The post The ‘model minority’ myth: Its impact on well-being and mental health appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/the-model-minority-myth-its-impact-on-well-being-and-mental-health/feed/ 0
Model projects 200,000 people in the US could die from coronavirus by October https://virusreports.net/model-projects-200000-people-in-the-us-could-die-from-coronavirus-by-october/ https://virusreports.net/model-projects-200000-people-in-the-us-could-die-from-coronavirus-by-october/#respond Tue, 16 Jun 2020 13:21:17 +0000 https://virusreports.net/model-projects-200000-people-in-the-us-could-die-from-coronavirus-by-october/ (CNN)The United States could see more than 200,000 deaths from Covid-19 by October 1, a closely watched model predicted Monday as states continue to reopen. More than 2 million have been infected by…

The post Model projects 200,000 people in the US could die from coronavirus by October appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
(CNN)The United States could see more than 200,000 deaths from Covid-19 by October 1, a closely watched model predicted Monday as states continue to reopen.
More than 2 million have been infected by…
Read More

The post Model projects 200,000 people in the US could die from coronavirus by October appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/model-projects-200000-people-in-the-us-could-die-from-coronavirus-by-october/feed/ 0
New COVID-19 model shows slim room for error in reopening King Co., but provides roadmap https://virusreports.net/new-covid-19-model-shows-slim-room-for-error-in-reopening-king-co-but-provides-roadmap/ https://virusreports.net/new-covid-19-model-shows-slim-room-for-error-in-reopening-king-co-but-provides-roadmap/#respond Tue, 26 May 2020 23:20:56 +0000 https://virusreports.net/new-covid-19-model-shows-slim-room-for-error-in-reopening-king-co-but-provides-roadmap/ New COVID-19 model shows slim room for error in reopening King Co., but provides roadmap - KOMO News

The post New COVID-19 model shows slim room for error in reopening King Co., but provides roadmap appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
New COVID-19 model shows slim room for error in reopening King Co., but provides roadmap – KOMO News
Read More

The post New COVID-19 model shows slim room for error in reopening King Co., but provides roadmap appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/new-covid-19-model-shows-slim-room-for-error-in-reopening-king-co-but-provides-roadmap/feed/ 0
Coronavirus model used to justify shutdowns in the US and UK found to be ‘totally unreliable’ by experts https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-used-to-justify-shutdowns-in-the-us-and-uk-found-to-be-totally-unreliable-by-experts/ https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-used-to-justify-shutdowns-in-the-us-and-uk-found-to-be-totally-unreliable-by-experts/#respond Mon, 18 May 2020 17:21:20 +0000 https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-used-to-justify-shutdowns-in-the-us-and-uk-found-to-be-totally-unreliable-by-experts/ The coronavirus outbreak projection model that predicted more than 2 million U.S. deaths has been deemed "totally unreliable" by experts who have examined its coding, Fox News reported. The model programmed by Neil Ferguson of the United Kingdom's Imperial College helped convince the governments of the United States and the United Kingdom to implement severe…

The post Coronavirus model used to justify shutdowns in the US and UK found to be ‘totally unreliable’ by experts appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>

The coronavirus outbreak projection model that predicted more than 2 million U.S. deaths has been deemed “totally unreliable” by experts who have examined its coding, Fox News reported.

The model programmed by Neil Ferguson of the United Kingdom’s Imperial College helped convince the governments of the United States and the United Kingdom to implement severe lockdowns to slow the spread of the virus, and the frightening projections the model created also motivated public support of such measures early on.

But the Imperial College model appears incapable of meeting even the lowest scientific standards. If scientists run the model two times with the same data, it produces different results. From Fox News:

The Imperial model works by using code to simulate transport links, population size, social networks and healthcare provisions to predict how coronavirus would spread. Researchers released the code behind it, which developers have criticized as being unreadable.

Scientists from the University of Edinburgh have further claimed that it is impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data using the model. The team got different results when they used different machines, and even different results from the same machines.

“Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parameters,” Oxford University mathematical biology professor Michael Bonsall said, according to Fox News. “Otherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable.”

One tech company founder told the Daily Telegraph that such poor work wouldn’t be acceptable in any business context.

“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust,” David Richards, co-founder of the British tech company WANdisco, said.

Ferguson did step down from his advisory role with the UK government, but not because of his failed model — it was because he violated coronavirus lockdown rules to cheat on his wife with a married woman.

Read More

The post Coronavirus model used to justify shutdowns in the US and UK found to be ‘totally unreliable’ by experts appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/coronavirus-model-used-to-justify-shutdowns-in-the-us-and-uk-found-to-be-totally-unreliable-by-experts/feed/ 0
Playboy model Joy Corrigan recalls father’s ‘funny’ reaction to her first appearance: ‘My dad wasn’t happy’ https://virusreports.net/playboy-model-joy-corrigan-recalls-fathers-funny-reaction-to-her-first-appearance-my-dad-wasnt-happy/ https://virusreports.net/playboy-model-joy-corrigan-recalls-fathers-funny-reaction-to-her-first-appearance-my-dad-wasnt-happy/#respond Tue, 12 May 2020 13:22:12 +0000 https://virusreports.net/playboy-model-joy-corrigan-recalls-fathers-funny-reaction-to-her-first-appearance-my-dad-wasnt-happy/ Joy Corrigan has her eyes on Hollywood.The international model is set to star in an upcoming untitled film with Bruce Willis, but it won’t be the first time the two will appear on the same screen. The pair previously appeared in the 2018 thriller "Reprisal."But that’s not the only thing keeping the 25-year-old busy. Corrigan…

The post Playboy model Joy Corrigan recalls father’s ‘funny’ reaction to her first appearance: ‘My dad wasn’t happy’ appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>

Joy Corrigan has her eyes on Hollywood.

The international model is set to star in an upcoming untitled film with Bruce Willis, but it won’t be the first time the two will appear on the same screen. The pair previously appeared in the 2018 thriller “Reprisal.”

But that’s not the only thing keeping the 25-year-old busy. Corrigan has also partnered with her sister Gina Smith to create Naked Species, a clothing brand that celebrates the star’s personal style, all while raising awareness on endangered species. And when the blonde bombshell isn’t designing, she’s gracing the pages of Maxim France, GQ, and Playboy — just to name a few.

SPORTS ILLUSTRATED SWIMSUIT MODEL HUNTER MCGRADY EXPLAINS WHY SHE FLAUNTED HER ‘QUARANTINE BODY’ ON INSTAGRAM

JULIE ANDREWS SAY SHE ‘WAS CERTAINLY AWARE OF TALES ABOUT THE CASTING COUCH’ IN HOLLYWOOD

Corrigan spoke to Fox News about working alongside Willis, 65, her father’s reaction to appearing in Playboy, as well as coping with social media trolls.

Fox News: What has surprised you the most about Bruce Willis?

Joy Corrigan: When it comes to his acting on set, he has it down. He’s in and out really quick. He knows how everything works and how it should work. He comes in, nails all his scenes and is basically out. It’s really amazing to witness that personally.

Fox News: What drew you to acting?

Corrigan: I’ve always wanted to be an actress ever since I was a child. I grew up in North Carolina and I have a huge family: six brothers and three sisters. And we all grew up on a farm. I’ve always loved acting with my siblings, making scenes and writing plays. Performing for them was something I’ve always loved. I always knew I would continue that. When I was 14, I was approached by an [agent] to walk in a runway show so I just fell into modeling even though acting has always been my passion. But really, they go hand-in-hand. If you’re modeling a prom dress, you have to transform yourself into that girl at prom. You have to be in character. It just feels natural.

MARLO THOMAS AND PHIL DONAHUE REFLECT ON THEIR 40-YEAR MARRIAGE: ‘WE WANTED TO PROTECT IT’

‘DALLAS’ STAR CHARLENE TILTON SAYS FAITH HAS KEPT HER OUT OF ‘DARK PLACES’ DURING CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

Fox News: What was it like growing up in a small town with a huge family and farm?

Corrigan: I loved it. I didn’t know that it wasn’t normal until I started getting older. And then I noticed wearing hand-me-downs and only shopping at Walmart wasn’t considered cool. But honestly? I loved it. I was never alone. I played with animals. I had my own garden. We were always being creative and building new things. I was also homeschooled so I was also painting and riding horses. I had the best childhood. It may not be a normal childhood to many, but I really cannot complain.

VICTORIA’S SECRET MODEL LAIS RIBEIRO ON HOMESCHOOLING HER SON: ‘SOMETIMES I HAVE TO CHEAT AND GO ON GOOGLE’

NATALIE WOOD’S DAUGHTER CALLS ROBERT WAGNER ‘COURAGEOUS’ FOR SPEAKING OUT IN DOC: ‘I WAS JUST SO PROUD OF HIM’

Fox News: What’s the funniest or most unique reaction you’ve ever received from your family about one of your photoshoots?

Corrigan: It’s really funny actually. I would have to say when I brought home the Playboy magazine to show my family. I brought a few magazines home and as soon as my dad saw Playboy, he just walked right out of the room and didn’t say a word. I said, “Dad, don’t worry, it’s not nude!” I did the non-nude issue even though it was quite revealing. But it didn’t matter because I grew up in a quite religious environment where we went to church every Wednesday and Sunday. My dad wasn’t happy about it. My mom yelled to him, “Baby, times have changed! It’s different now!” She was trying to make it sound OK. [laughs] And she was so proud of me. I think my dad was proud of me too but he just didn’t want to say so. [laughs]

Fox News: You’ve appeared in Playboy, Maxim France, and GQ — just to name a few. Where does your confidence come from?

Corrigan: Honestly, I think having a really loving family has helped with my confidence. Ever since I was a child, my parents always told me and my siblings, “Pursue your dreams. You can do whatever you want as long as you put your mind to it.” I was insecure and shy growing up because I was homeschooled. But it also encouraged me to prove that I can do it all myself. So even with modeling, I was constantly pushing back against the no’s. And this industry is full of rejection. You need to have tough skin to make it in the business, but certainly, my confidence came from my upbringing.

MAXIM MEXICO COVER GIRL YOVANNA VENTURA SHARES HER FAVORITE TIPS TO STAYING HEALTHY WHILE IN QUARANTINE

‘M*A*S*H’ STAR LORETTA SWIT SAYS SHE’S USING HER TIME IN QUARANTINE TO HONOR HEROES: ‘THEY ARE OUR LIFELINE’

Fox News: Could you describe that moment when you realized you’ve made it as a model?

Corrigan: It’s funny because I still don’t feel that I’ve made it. [laughs] I’m always thinking, “I can do better, I can do more.” I guess that’s what drives me to do bigger, better things. I guess when I walked that runway show for the first time, that was a big moment for me. We got free clothes and we were paid for it. I never thought that could be a career. I grew up on powdered milk so this was a new world for me. I couldn’t believe this was happening to me, but I also didn’t want to end. And I’ve made it my priority since then.

Fox News: Many models have been told they’re not the right size early on in their careers. Did you ever experience that?

Corrigan: I think some girls have it easy and some don’t. When I started, every single agency told me no because they felt I’m too short — I’m 5’8”. But one agency decided to give me a chance. I then had to prove myself that I was worthy, despite my height. I have to tell you, my feet are ruined because I would wear heels everywhere. You would never catch me without heels because I was so insecure about my height. I was wearing six-inch heels to go to Walgreens. And they do measure you so you have to keep a certain shape.

‘BATMAN’ STAR BURT WARD SAYS WAKING UP ‘EVERY SINGLE DAY IN THE MOST WONDERFUL COUNTRY’ IS ‘A GIFT’

BEACH BOYS’ MIKE LOVE SAYS HE WANTED TO ‘GIVE A LITTLE GLIMMER OF HOPE’ WITH ‘THIS TOO SHALL PASS’

But I think nowadays, that’s really changing, which is amazing. I think there are so many shapes and sizes being welcomed in the modeling industry thanks to social media. People are embracing more shapes and sizes, which is wonderful. Really, what should really matter is if you can sell the clothes.

Fox News: Do you ever have to deal with trolls on social media?

Corrigan: Thankfully, my followers are kind and gracious. But whenever I get the occasional troll, I just hit block. But that’s going to come with being in the public eye. I remember one time there was an article where someone wrote horrible things about me, comparing me to a praying mantis. I remember just crying over. Then I had to stop myself because if I want to continue with this career, I can’t let myself cry or be hurt every single time someone says something negative about me. I made that decision right then and there. Of course, it sometimes still hurts, but I no longer cry over it. I just put my focus and energy on the positive things of my life.

‘HAPPY DAYS’ STAR ANSON WILLIAMS RE-RECORDS ‘PUMP YOUR BLOOD’ TO ‘I’M GONNA WASH MY HANDS’ FOR CHILDREN

‘THE BIRDS’ STAR TIPPI HEDREN REVEALS WHAT HER LIFE IS LIKE IN QUARANTINE: ‘MY ONLY ROUTINE IS NO ROUTINE’

Fox News: How do you stay in shape all year long?

Corrigan: I love to put MCT coconut oil in my coffee. I feel it gives me energy and curbs my appetite. I also feel like I can jog farther and harder. I also make sure my diet 70 percent veggies and 30 percent anything else. Filling up on fruits and veggies gives me the nutrients and energy I need and I’m not craving pizza and cake as much. I also work out every day. Jogging and yoga are my favorites. But I try not to be too hard on myself. If I indulge, then well, tomorrow is a new day.

Fox News: You have a new clothing line called Naked Species. Can you tell us more about that?

Corrigan: My sister and I wanted to focus on making edgy fashion for a great cause. We donate a portion of all proceeds to charities that support our commitment to helping endangered species. I personally designed each piece with my own style and art in hopes it will express my love of helping endangered animals. So each piece has my heart and soul in it. We have one piece that shows two rhinos procreating and it’s actually our most popular style. But I’m really excited for our next collection.

FORMER ‘GLADIATOR’ STAR CONNIE NIELSEN GETS CANDID ON HER FAVORITE MEMORY FROM SET, FILMING ‘SEA FEVER’

CAMILLE KOSTEK REVEALS HER QUARANTINE ROUTINE WITH ROB GRONKOWSKI: ‘WE’VE BEEN LOVING THIS TIME TOGETHER’

I believe it’s so important to give me and I’ve always been passionate about endangered animals. I have a large social media platform, which gives me a voice. Growing up on a  farm, being surrounded by plants and animals, that has never left me. And my followers have been super supportive and encouraging, which is wonderful. I will never stop raising awareness.

Read More

The post Playboy model Joy Corrigan recalls father’s ‘funny’ reaction to her first appearance: ‘My dad wasn’t happy’ appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/playboy-model-joy-corrigan-recalls-fathers-funny-reaction-to-her-first-appearance-my-dad-wasnt-happy/feed/ 0
The President As A Model For The Nation: From Toasters And Sweaters To Masks https://virusreports.net/the-president-as-a-model-for-the-nation-from-toasters-and-sweaters-to-masks/ https://virusreports.net/the-president-as-a-model-for-the-nation-from-toasters-and-sweaters-to-masks/#respond Fri, 08 May 2020 12:21:37 +0000 https://virusreports.net/the-president-as-a-model-for-the-nation-from-toasters-and-sweaters-to-masks/ President Trump speaks about COVID-19 alongside nurses after signing a Proclamation in honor of National Nurses Day in the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday. Trump and Vice President Pence have not worn face masks during public events, which goes against the administration's recommendations. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption toggle caption…

The post The President As A Model For The Nation: From Toasters And Sweaters To Masks appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>

President Trump speaks about COVID-19 alongside nurses after signing a Proclamation in honor of National Nurses Day in the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday. Trump and Vice President Pence have not worn face masks during public events, which goes against the administration’s recommendations.

Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images


hide caption

toggle caption

Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump speaks about COVID-19 alongside nurses after signing a Proclamation in honor of National Nurses Day in the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday. Trump and Vice President Pence have not worn face masks during public events, which goes against the administration’s recommendations.

Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Presidents have been asked all manner of questions about their behavior, but no one had ever asked whether the president should wear a mask. Until now.

In the midst of this hydra-headed medical-economic-social crisis, the Trump administration’s guidelines recommend Americans wear a face covering in public spaces to slow the spread of the coronavirus. That makes it controversial when President Trump and Vice President Pence are out and about unmasked.

The point of the mask is mainly to protect others. The point of having the nation’s leaders wear them is to encourage the nation to do the same.

So what if they don’t? Are they then modeling something else?

On Wednesday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., could not have been more emphatic. The president, she said, should wear a mask in public (as she does) to set an example for the public.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walks to her office after signing the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act after it passed the House on Capitol Hill on April 23.

Andrew Harnik/AP


hide caption

toggle caption

Andrew Harnik/AP

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walks to her office after signing the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act after it passed the House on Capitol Hill on April 23.

Andrew Harnik/AP

Masks were much in evidence on Capitol Hill this week when senators returned to work, and the Supreme Court has begun hearing oral arguments remotely.

But face wear remains out of fashion at the White House, apparently — at least during public events.

When the president signed a proclamation for National Nurses Day on Wednesday, for example, none of the group gathered in the Oval Office wore a mask.

The White House has been regularly testing those who come into contact with the president and vice president. After a White House military aide tested positive for the coronavirus, Trump said on Thursday that testing at the White House would become daily rather than weekly.

But not for me

Trump first addressed the notion of a mask a month ago (“I don’t think I’m going to be doing it“) when the Center for Disease Control and Prevention recommended the practice. This week he left Washington to tour, of all things, a Honeywell mask-manufacturing site in Phoenix, Ariz. Once there, he wore protective goggles over his eyes – but no mask.

Vice President Pence visits Dennis Nelson, a patient who survived the coronavirus and was going to give blood, at the Mayo Clinic on April 28 in Rochester, Minn. Pence chose not to wear a face mask while touring the hospital.

Jim Mone/AP


hide caption

toggle caption

Jim Mone/AP

Vice President Pence visits Dennis Nelson, a patient who survived the coronavirus and was going to give blood, at the Mayo Clinic on April 28 in Rochester, Minn. Pence chose not to wear a face mask while touring the hospital.

Jim Mone/AP

This immediately reminded people of Vice President Pence’s tour of the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota on April 28. Pence, who leads the White House task force on the virus, wore no mask at Mayo, even though all the officials and medical personnel clustered around him did. The widely republished photographs of him elbow-bumping with masked patients made this painfully clear.

Initially Pence offered explanations and debated the rules. Days later, Pence relented and said he should have worn a mask while in a hospital.

Trump, however, was not apologetic after his visit to Honeywell this week, claiming he had put on a mask at the plant “backstage” before being told he did not have to wear one.

Can This President Be Reelected In An Economy This Bad?

Amazingly enough, masks seem to be turning into one more emblem of our political polarization. Wear one and you are taking the virus and the social distancing prescription seriously. Refuse, and you signify something else that may be denial or even defiance.

Viewpoints also differ when it comes to national leaders’ setting a good (or bad) example. Most would agree it’s nice if the president models the most desirable social behavior. But when ideals of that sort meet reality, the results can be less than ideal.

Which fireside are you on?

President Carter sits in the library of the White House living quarters in 1977, just prior to air time of a nationally televised “fireside chat.”

Harvey Georges/AP


hide caption

toggle caption

Harvey Georges/AP

President Carter sits in the library of the White House living quarters in 1977, just prior to air time of a nationally televised “fireside chat.”

Harvey Georges/AP

Take recent history’s best-known case of an earnest president modeling best behavior for the nation. That would be President Jimmy Carter, in 1977, after less than two weeks in the White House, delivering a nationwide TV address telling Americans to get serious about using less energy (turn off lights, adjust the thermostat, drive less).

But what people saw and remembered was Carter delivering that speech wearing a cardigan sweater, sitting in front of a fireplace in the White House.

That last detail was widely interpreted as a reference to President Franklin Roosevelt’s legendary “fireside chats,” which were radio addresses from the White House. The chats began as soon as FDR took office in 1933 in the midst of a Depression-era banking panic. He took to the airwaves to announce a temporary, nationwide closing of the banks. But he called it a “bank holiday” and sounded quite confident that things would be fine.

In COVID Briefings, Trump Again Relies On Both Shock And Strategic Retreat

When Carter brought back the fireside trope, some saw his effort as a successful and sincere demonstration. Others found his show of humility and downbeat demeanor less than presidential. If the energy crisis of the 1970s was indeed “the moral equivalent of war,” as he called it, maybe the commander in chief should look a little more like a warrior.

Even trivial details of a president’s behavior can become exercises in political messaging. Then-President Gerald Ford and his staff wanted to contrast his “regular guy” image with the “imperial presidency” of his predecessor, Richard Nixon.

So we learned that he toasted his own English muffins in the morning in a kitchen off the Oval Office, and sometimes scooped up after his golden retriever on the White House lawn (even at times while still in his presidential bathrobe).

President Ford prepares English muffins, which he toasted in the kitchen of the family quarters at the White House in 1974. Ford, who has always fixed his own breakfast, did not change the habit.

Harvey Georges/AP


hide caption

toggle caption

Harvey Georges/AP

President Ford prepares English muffins, which he toasted in the kitchen of the family quarters at the White House in 1974. Ford, who has always fixed his own breakfast, did not change the habit.

Harvey Georges/AP

The idea of the president modeling a particular kind of behavior gets complicated, as all questions of presidential messaging do. Putting on a show for the sake of the public can easily slide into creating a false impression.

Another kind of mask

In fact, the controversies over presidents and masks in the past have been about concealment – particularly of physical challenges. The same FDR fondly remembered for his voice on the radio was rarely seen by the public in his wheelchair. The tanned and virile John F. Kennedy who urged the country to exercise and popularized the word “vigor” was suffering from several chronic conditions and undergoing extensive medical treatments.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt at Fort Peck, Mont., in August 1934 as he made one of his numerous addresses from the observation platform of his train during his journey over the parched plains of the Northwest.

AP


hide caption

toggle caption

AP

President Franklin D. Roosevelt at Fort Peck, Mont., in August 1934 as he made one of his numerous addresses from the observation platform of his train during his journey over the parched plains of the Northwest.

AP

These presidents felt they had to project health and strength to be elected and to be respected once in office. And something similar may be motivating Trump. A masked president is not a good look for any number of reasons, and a president trapped in the White House does not communicate confidence. Communicating confidence is essential to the persona of this president.

Beyond that, Trump has apparently decided that the way out of the current crisis is to be bold about reopening as quickly as possible in as many places as possible. He concedes there will be consequences and some will be “affected badly,” but insists the economic damage cannot be allowed to continue.

So we can expect to see the president out and about around the country, projecting confidence in the nation’s health and resilience. And that is what he is modeling by not wearing a mask.

Read More

The post The President As A Model For The Nation: From Toasters And Sweaters To Masks appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/the-president-as-a-model-for-the-nation-from-toasters-and-sweaters-to-masks/feed/ 0
The coronavirus IHME model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? https://virusreports.net/the-coronavirus-ihme-model-keeps-being-wrong-why-are-we-still-listening-to-it/ https://virusreports.net/the-coronavirus-ihme-model-keeps-being-wrong-why-are-we-still-listening-to-it/#respond Sat, 02 May 2020 16:57:05 +0000 https://virusreports.net/the-coronavirus-ihme-model-keeps-being-wrong-why-are-we-still-listening-to-it/ How many people are likely to die in the United States of Covid-19? How many hospital beds is the country going to need? When will case numbers peak? To answer those questions, many hospital planners, media outlets, and government bodies — including the White House — relied heavily on one particular model out of the…

The post The coronavirus IHME model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>

How many people are likely to die in the United States of Covid-19? How many hospital beds is the country going to need? When will case numbers peak?

To answer those questions, many hospital planners, media outlets, and government bodies — including the White House — relied heavily on one particular model out of the many that have been published in the past two months: the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

The model first estimated in late March that there’d be fewer than 161,000 deaths total in the US; in early April, it revised its projections to say the total death toll through August was “projected to be 60,415” (though it acknowledged the range could be between 31,221 and 126,703).

The model has been cited often by the White House and has informed its policymaking. But it may have led the administration astray: The IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out.

On Wednesday, the US death count passed the 60,000 mark that the IHME model had said was the likely total cumulative death toll. The IHME on April 29 released a new update raising its estimates for total deaths to 72,433, but that, too, looks likely to be proved an underestimate as soon as next week. Even its upper bound on deaths — now listed as 114,228 by August — is questionable, as some other models expect the US will hit that milestone by the end of May, and most project it will in June.

One analysis of the IHME model found that its next-day death predictions for each state were outside its 95 percent confidence interval 70 percent of the time — meaning the actual death numbers fell outside the range it projected 70 percent of the time. That’s not great! (A recent revision by IHME fixed that issue; more on this below.)

This track record has led some experts to criticize the model. “It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to making projections about Covid-19, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told reporters.

But if that’s the case, how has it risen to such prominence among policymakers? Other models have done better than IHME’s at predicting the course of the epidemic, and many of them use approaches epidemiologists believe are more promising. Yet it’s the IHME model that has generally guided policymakers, for the most part, in the direction of focusing on a return to normal.

One potential explanation for its outsize influence: Some of the factors that make the IHME model unreliable at predicting the virus may have gotten people to pay attention to it. For one thing, it’s more simplistic compared to other models. That means it can be applied in ways more complicated models could not, such as providing state-level projections (something state officials really wanted), which other modelers acknowledged that they didn’t have enough data to offer.

Meanwhile, its narrow confidence intervals for state-by-state estimates meant it had quotable (and optimistic) topline numbers. A confidence interval represents a range of numbers wherein the model is very confident the true value will lie. A narrow range that gives “an appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead,” a criticism of the IHME model published in the Annals of Internal Medicine argued. But the numbers and precise curves the IHME is publishing “suggests greater precision than the model is able to offer.”

The criticism of the IHME model, and an emerging debate over epidemiology models more broadly, has brought to light important challenges in the fight against the coronavirus. Good planning requires good projections. Models are needed to help predict resurgences and spot a potential second wave. Dissecting what the IHME model got wrong, what other models got right, and how the public and policymakers read these models is essential work in order to create the best pandemic plans possible.

What’s wrong with the IHME model of the coronavirus?

Models of disease spread are meant to help decision-makers in an environment where math will outperform intuitions. Most people have a hard time thinking about exponential growth, which is why many were taken by surprise in March as the virus spread. That’s why models can be useful.

Models usually lay out some foundational assumptions and offer projections based on those assumptions. The IHME model seeks to project death rates and hospitalization rates assuming widespread social distancing and strong measures to prevent the spread of the virus. Since testing is so unreliable at identifying the infection rate, the model uses only death rates as data (though evidence from all-cause mortality data suggests we’re undercounting coronavirus-caused deaths, too).

That projected hospitalization rate was one of the things that set it apart, IHME researcher Ali Mokdad told me. It was one of the few models offering that projection, and it was actionable information governments could grab on to and plan around.

Another reason it rose in prominence was IHME’s decision to model the effects of strong social distancing measures. That choice proved correct — strong measures were indeed taken across the US — and the lower death numbers the model churned out as a result reportedly led to it being received favorably by the Trump administration.

But as the weeks have passed, it has become clear that the IHME’s projections have been too optimistic, and slow to adjust to reflect the fact that deaths have plateaued rather than rapidly decreasing to zero. The IHME has been regularly updating its model as new data comes in, but the updates have often been slow enough that the numbers are absurd by the time they’re changed in an update. For example, in late April the model still stated the expected total death toll was 60,000, even as the US was clearly only a few days from that milestone.

Mokdad told me when we talked that a fix was in the works, and it went up a few days later: The model now projects 73,433 deaths by August. That, too, is probably an underestimate — most other models project that total will be reached next week.

In the IHME’s defense, it does offer a 95 percent confidence interval that is more accurate than the topline numbers. That range goes from 59,343 — significantly less than the number of people already dead of the virus — to 114,228. That might sound like a wide range, but it’s still optimistic, and the actual toll is on track to lie outside that range entirely. MIT projects the US will surpass that upper bound in mid-June, and the Los Alamos forecast, like the MIT one, predicts the country will burst through the IHME’s 95 percent confidence interval in around six weeks.

That’s one of the core complaints about the IHME model: its confidence intervals seem too narrow, both for its next-day and several-months-ahead predictions. For instance, when used to predict the number of deaths in a state the very next day (which doesn’t require any complex modeling of the long-term effects of uncertain policies), other researchers found the true deaths were outside of the 95 percent confidence interval given by the model 70 percent of the time. Those are embarrassingly poor results.

The day-to-day numbers are jumpy because some counties don’t report numbers every day, Mokdad told me. “The model is kind of confused because states are not reporting deaths consistently,” he said, adding, “The model assumes deaths will increase and then come back down,” and so it reacts poorly when deaths instead vary day to day. Smoothing over the course of a week — the latest update the IHME team made — means the model should be more predictive.

Indeed, the latest update to the model solves the problem where the next-day deaths are usually outside the model’s confidence interval by giving the model extremely wide confidence intervals. That’s commendable. It is better to be honest about your extremely high uncertainty than to claim certainty you don’t have.

That might lead to unsatisfying models with extremely wide ranges — 176 to 3,885 deaths today — but if that’s an accurate reflection of the state of uncertainty, then so be it. It’s better to have a wide confidence interval, acknowledging your uncertainty, than to have a narrow one that is usually wrong. And if next-day deaths are usually wrong, as IHME’s are, that undermines confidence in the long-term predictive value of the model.

(But while the IHME has made its day-to-day confidence intervals larger, it still has very narrow confidence intervals for its projections several weeks into the future — which is odd, as there should be even more uncertainty about those.)

An even bigger issue with the IHME model is that the way the model is published can obscure its problems. When it’s updated, it can be hard to see what its old, obviated predictions were. A website, covid-projections.com, has been set up so that you can look at the predictions made by old versions of the IHME model (and at the history of other models). The IHME models are frequently fairly far off.

The IHME model is unusual compared to other epidemiological models for its design, too. While most of the models use standard epidemiology modeling tactics like SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered modeling) or use computer simulations, the IHME model is effectively just about fitting a curve from early data in China and Italy to the disease’s trajectory elsewhere.

The IHME model is based “on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis,” the Annals of Internal Medicine critique argues.

The IHME team has defended its model against those complaints.

“We’re willing to make a forecast. Most academics want to hedge their bets and not be found to ever be wrong,” IHME director Christopher Murray told Politico. “That’s not useful for a planner — you can’t go to a hospital and say you might need 1,000 ventilators, or you might need 5,000.”

The model has gotten better, but flaws remain

The change to the model has certainly improved it, but some problems with the confidence intervals remain. The new model acknowledges extremely high uncertainty about what will happen tomorrow — in my state, California, it says there will be between 5 and 103 deaths tomorrow. That’s a really wide range.

But on May 20, the model is entirely sure there will be zero deaths. The 95 percent confidence interval runs from zero deaths to … zero deaths.

The IHME’s model of deaths in California reports lots of uncertainty about what will happen tomorrow but extremely high confidence about what will happen in late May.

That’s an extremely strong claim. I pressed the IHME team about whether they were sure of it. Mokdad said the model’s zero-deaths predictions were correct: “Based on the graph, in certain states, yes — in California, May 17, zero. The virus is not circulating anymore; you would expect it to go to zero.”

But the virus is still circulating in California. On April 28, there were 1,187 new cases reported in the state. Even if all infections in California stopped instantly today, it is likely that some already infected people would die in mid-May or later.

California’s case numbers (like those of many states) are declining, but only slowly, as social distancing has limited the spread of the virus but not fully stopped it. That ties into another problem with the IHME model: It assumes that social distancing measures, once put in place, are always sufficient to rapidly decrease case numbers to zero.

In the report explaining the model, the researchers write that they look at four measures: “School closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay-at-home recommendations, and travel restrictions including public transport closures. Days with 1 measure were counted as 0.67 equivalents, days with 2 measures as 0.334 equivalents and with 3 or 4 measures as 0.”

In other words, the model has a built-in assumption that once three of those measures have been put into place, cases will rapidly fall to zero. No new data can change that assumption, which is why the model continues to project zero deaths by mid-May in any area that hasn’t lifted social distancing restrictions, even though case numbers have only plateaued rather than declined in many areas.

There are many similar frustratingly confident predictions: On July 12, the model says, we’ll need between 0 and 12 hospital beds in the whole US for coronavirus patients, and there will be 0 deaths at any point after July 12.

Why the IHME model’s problems shouldn’t be used as an indictment of epidemiology more broadly

All these concerns make it frustrating to many epidemiologists that the IHME model is the one being widely used and cited. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni told Stat News in an article about the problems with the model. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

Alex Merz, a microbiologist at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, has written that@IHME_UW’s overly optimistic modeling projections contributed to this debacle” of the coronavirus’s rapid spread in the US, and condemned their “amazing shrinking error band that, preposterously, constricts to zero uncertainty in mid-June. That is not only bad science communication — it is bad science.”

The IHME model has also brought the discipline under fire from other fields. Tyler Cowen, whose widely read blog Marginal Revolution has linked many of the papers demonstrating how poorly the IHME model works, argued “now really is the time to be asking tough questions about epidemiology, and yes, epidemiologists.”

That’s not fair, many epidemiologists say — the model doesn’t use any of the standard tools of the discipline, and they hate it too.

“The IHME approach departs from classic epidemiological modeling,” epidemiological modelers at the University of Texas at Austin argued. “Rather than using systems of equations to project the person-to-person transmission of the virus, the [IHME] model postulates that COVID-19 deaths will rise exponentially and then decline in a pattern that roughly resembles a bell curve (i.e., normal distribution).” (Their paper puts forward their own attempt at modeling the disease with a curve-fitting approach, but one tweaked to use better data and to better represent uncertainty.)

So it might not be fair to draw conclusions about the field as a whole from one model that mostly avoided using its standard tools.

Moreover, the public should be aware that there are better models. The Imperial College model that the British government relied on to inform their country’s coronavirus strategy has held up reasonably well, with case numbers loosely tracking the model’s predictions for what would happen if social distancing were implemented (as it was shortly after the model was published). It, too, has been frequently revised in response to new data and has come under criticism for overconfidence, but the inaccuracies are smaller and less pervasive, and the initial numbers before any revisions weren’t that far off.

Other models, employing more standard epidemiological approaches, perform even better — though usually in narrower domains, like trying to project just the peak of the outbreak, or just the rate of new cases.

The IHME team says their model performed pretty well on key problems like predicting the peak in most states (it’ll be clear in coming weeks how true that is) and that they’re continuing to revise it to make it better. Meanwhile, as the debate over epidemiological models heats up, it’s fair to say that holding the shortcomings of the IHME model against epidemiology as a whole isn’t fair.

We don’t have all the answers

But that still leaves the question: Why did the IHME model become so popular?

The flaws I’ve noted above were also features that made the model appealing when it was first launched. It was optimistic, projecting lower deaths than other models. It was clear and precise, with narrow confidence intervals. It projected hospitalizations, which few others were doing — though those projections turned out to be wrong because not enough was known to project hospitalizations well at that stage. In a time of uncertainty, the IHME model was compelling.

But it turns out the uncertainty being reflected in a lot of other, better models is showing up for a reason — there really is still a lot unknown about the course this disease will take.

As my colleague Matt Yglesias has written, “We need to value scientists and listen to experts, but part of listening means understanding that right now, what they’re saying is that they do not have all the answers.”

Given the enormous uncertainty ahead, responsible scientists are avoiding giving dramatic topline numbers they’re unsure of, emphasizing the very wide confidence intervals on their estimates, and being careful not to publish results that the Trump administration or the public may interpret as definitive.

But people keep searching for definitive answers (understandably so), and so any model that is presented more confidently will rise to prominence over models that are humbler and better reflect the confusion.

The IHME model is one of several released by researchers at the University of Washington, but it has been far more widely cited and discussed than the others — despite being less accurate.

Ultimately, the problem may not be that some models are inaccurate. It was predictable that some models would be inaccurate, with the situation as confusing as it is. There are dozens of models, and ideally we’d be doing something like aggregating them and weighting each according to how well it has performed so far in predicting the crisis.

The current process is almost exactly the opposite of that. Most models are nearly ignored, while a few are cited by the White House and widely referred to in the press. The process that makes some models prominent is not a process that picks out the best of the best — and in fact, it may actively be picking out worse models, by emphasizing ones with notable numbers and statistics to cite, by leaning into the seductive “appearance of certainty” that researchers have warned about.

In other words, the fact that many epidemiological models are performing badly isn’t great, but it could be part of a productive process of arriving at better models. But the media, policymakers, and the public need to be conscious of what kind of models we gravitate to and why. If we elevate the ones we like and quote numbers from them as if they’re definitive, then the models will certainly end up shedding more heat than light.


Sign up for the Future Perfect newsletter and we’ll send you a roundup of ideas and solutions for tackling the world’s biggest challenges — and how to get better at doing good.


Support Vox’s explanatory journalism

Every day at Vox, we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you, and our audience around the world, with information that has the power to save lives. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower you through understanding. Vox’s work is reaching more people than ever, but our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn. Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation, but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles, videos, and podcasts at the quality and volume that this moment requires. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today.

Read More

The post The coronavirus IHME model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/the-coronavirus-ihme-model-keeps-being-wrong-why-are-we-still-listening-to-it/feed/ 0
China’s model of control has been blamed for the coronavirus crisis, but for some it’s looking increasingly attractive https://virusreports.net/chinas-model-of-control-has-been-blamed-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-but-for-some-its-looking-increasingly-attractive/ https://virusreports.net/chinas-model-of-control-has-been-blamed-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-but-for-some-its-looking-increasingly-attractive/#respond Wed, 29 Apr 2020 15:23:22 +0000 https://virusreports.net/chinas-model-of-control-has-been-blamed-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-but-for-some-its-looking-increasingly-attractive/ On Sunday, Andrew Adonis, a member of Britain's House of Lords and onetime cabinet minister, took aim at the idea that the coronavirus pandemic was causing a crisis of capitalism.

The post China’s model of control has been blamed for the coronavirus crisis, but for some it’s looking increasingly attractive appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
On Sunday, Andrew Adonis, a member of Britain’s House of Lords and onetime cabinet minister, took aim at the idea that the coronavirus pandemic was causing a crisis of capitalism.
Read More

The post China’s model of control has been blamed for the coronavirus crisis, but for some it’s looking increasingly attractive appeared first on Virus Reports.

]]>
https://virusreports.net/chinas-model-of-control-has-been-blamed-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-but-for-some-its-looking-increasingly-attractive/feed/ 0