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]]>The post Covid-19 “will end up as a Top 10 leading cause of death” in 2020, CDC statisticians tell CNN appeared first on Virus Reports.
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]]>The post Biden, leading Trump by eight points, also has a big advantage with undecided voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>NEW YORK (Reuters) – Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in support among registered voters, and the former vice president appears to have a significant advantage among voters who are undecided, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
The July 15-21 poll found that 46% of registered voters said they would back Biden in the Nov. 3 election, while 38% would vote for Republican Trump. The remaining 16% are either undecided, plan to support a third-party candidate or may not vote.
Both Biden and Trump campaigns have focused much of their time on reaching out to this third group of potentially persuadable voters, which could swing a close election in either direction.
Reuters/Ipsos polling in 2016 found that support was evenly split that summer between Trump and then Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton among registered voters who had not backed a major party candidate. On Election Day, Trump won a majority of voters who said they decided in the final week.
This year, the poll found that 61% of undecided or third-party registered voters said they would support Biden if they had to choose, while 39% would vote for Trump.
Seventy percent of undecided or third-party registered voters say they disapprove of Trump’s performance in office and the same number said they think the country is headed on the wrong track. And 62% said they thought the U.S. economy was headed in the wrong direction.
This group also appears to be deeply concerned about the novel coronavirus, which has killed more than 141,000 Americans and forced millions out of work as businesses closed in an effort to slow the spread of the virus.
About 8 in 10 said they were personally concerned about the spread of the virus. When asked about the most important factor driving their decision to vote, 34% – a plurality – said they were looking for a candidate who has “a robust plan to help the nation recover.”
Another 24% said they were looking for someone who can “restore trust in American government” and 12% said they wanted a candidate who is “strong on healthcare.”
Registered voters have consistently ranked Biden as the better candidate when it comes to all three.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed that only 38% of the public supports Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, including 20% of undecided or third-party registered voters.
Trump, who played down the crisis and did not appear publicly in a mask here until July 12, pushed to reopen businesses well before health experts said it was safe.
Trump appeared to shift his tone here this week and restarted regular briefings on the pandemic on Tuesday, encouraging Americans to wear a face covering if they could not keep socially distant. [nL2N2ES27K]
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 4,430 American adults, including 3,744 registered voters, and 595 registered voters who had not supported a major-party candidate.
It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 2 percentage points for the entire group and 5 points for the undecided or third-party voters.
Reporting by Chris Kahn, Editing by Soyoung Kim and Grant McCool
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]]>The post How Joe Biden’s leading VP contenders stack up in the wake of protests over George Floyd’s death appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden wears a protective face mask as he arrives to visit the Bethel AME Church in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S. June 1, 2020. REUTERS/Jim Bourg
Jim Bourg | Reuters
Joe Biden’s options for his running mate may have narrowed even further in the wake of mass protests across the country in reaction to the killing of George Floyd, who died as a white Minneapolis police officer kneeled on the neck of the unarmed black man for nearly nine minutes.
As the Floyd protests continue five months ahead of Election Day and President Donald Trump’s response to the crisis comes under fire, political observers are now paying more attention to Biden’s potential running mate. The protests have sparked a new wave of public lobbying for Biden to pick a black woman to be vice president.
Biden has said he will make his choice by Aug. 1. He is ahead of Trump in a Real Clear Politics national polling average by close to 6 points.
Three of the women on Biden’s shortlist, Sens. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn. and Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., all have track records of working in or with law enforcement. Political strategists say their past legal work could push them out the running to be Biden’s vice president.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., on the other hand, has openly said she would agree to be Biden’s VP choice if he asked. A Morning Consult poll shows voters believe she would give the apparent Democratic nominee the biggest boost with voters under 45, and blacks and Hispanics.
Here is a look at these four top contenders to be Biden’s vice presidential pick:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar
Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks into the microphone as his former rival for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, Senator Amy Klobuchar, endorses him during a campaign event in Dallas, Texas, U.S., March 2, 2020.
Eric Thayer | Reuters
Klobuchar’s recent campaign for president in the 2020 Democratic primary was largely based on the platform that her moderate approach to governance would help her party overtake Trump in key Midwest swing states that he won four years ago, such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Still, her ability to appeal to Democrats and independents who backed Trump in those states may be overshadowed by her record as a Minnesota prosecutor before she made her way to the U.S. Senate in 2007. Klobuchar was the Hennepin County attorney, where she declined to bring cases against multiple police officers and instead pushed them to a grand jury.
That piece of her past, according to people close to her, may have all but ended her chances of becoming vice president.
“It’s very bad and not good,” an ally of Klobuchar’s who was recently pushing her to Biden’s team as the ideal choice, told CNBC. “The pickings are slim and this could push Val Demings up,” this person noted, who declined to be named because these efforts have been made in private.
In a recent interview with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Klobuchar admitted that, in hindsight, she made a wrong choice not to take on those cases herself as a prosecutor.
“I think that was wrong now. I think it would’ve been much better, if I took the responsibility and looked at the cases and made the decision myself,” she said, while later brushing off the idea that she is going to drop out of consideration for the VP slot, noting that it’s Biden’s decision to make.
That hasn’t stopped progressives from publicly calling on her to pull out of the running to be on the ticket with Biden, including the liberal organization MoveOn.
Rep. James Clyburn, a black congressman from South Carolina and one of Biden’s most loyal supporters, appeared to pour cold water on Klobuchar getting picked in recent comments he made to reporters. “This is very tough timing for Amy Klobuchar,” he said.
Sen. Kamala Harris
Democratic presidential candidate , U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) speaks during the Nevada Democrats’ “First in the West” event at Bellagio Resort & Casino on November 17, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
David Becker/Getty Images
Harris was California’s attorney general before she was elected to the Senate in 2016.
Her record came under fire as the state’s top law enforcer when she went against Biden and a plethora of other Democrats in the primary. And political strategists believe that her record as a prosecutor may come under siege again in the wake of Floyd’s death.
“She already had the scraping of her own record as attorney general during the presidential campaign. What does it look like in the wake of this?” Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said. “She’s got some challenges with her own record as AG, too.”
During a CNN primary debate last year, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, took on Harris’ record as district attorney of San Francisco and later the leader of the state attorney general’s office, including cases that went after people who were charged with marijuana possession.
Harris’ supporters, though, argue that she would be the best pick to appeal to the black community and women across the country, especially in the wake of Floyd’s death.
“In my view, Biden will satisfy more of the Democratic base by choosing a black woman — energized women of all races and energized black men and women – than he does from a Midwest white woman,” said Julie Zebrak, a political fundraiser and Harris supporter.
Harris has also apparently been angling for the job in public.
She recently tweeted out a photo of Biden’s deceased son, Beau, in honoring the five year anniversary of his death. She also went to a protest in front of the White House this weekend and has called Floyd’s death a “public execution.”
Rep. Val Demings
In this screenshot taken from a Senate Television webcast, Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) answers a question from a senator during impeachment proceedings in the Senate chamber at the U.S. Capitol on January 30, 2020 in Washington, DC.
Senate Television via Getty Images
Following Floyd’s death, Demings, who was chief of the Orlando Police Department before she made it to Congress in 2017, came out with an op-ed in The Washington Post calling for changes to hiring and recruiting police officers.
“As a nation, we must conduct a serious review of hiring standards and practices, diversity, training, use-of-force policies, pay and benefits (remember, you get what you pay for), early warning programs, and recruit training programs,” she wrote last week.
Demings has publicly confirmed that she is on Biden’s VP short list.
Yet she has no experience running for president, and some strategists argue that even if she is chosen to be Biden’s running mate, Democrats still aren’t likely to win Florida, a critical swing state that Trump and Biden are vying for.
“Can she bring in Florida? Nobody can bring in Florida,” Marsh said.
Demings will have her work cut out for her if she wants the electorate to get to know her. A Morning Consult poll shows that voters believing she would be a net negative for Biden’s chances against Trump. Three in 5 participants of that survey say they’ve never heard of or have no opinion of Demings.
She did serve as an impeachment manager for Trump’s Senate trial that ended in acquittal.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks at a campaign Get Out the Vote Event in Charleston, South Carolina, February 26, 2020.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
Warren has publicly reiterated that she would jump on the ticket with Biden if he asked her to be his vice president.
Since the protests erupted she has positioned herself as someone who is trying to unify, not just the Democratic Party, but the nation as a whole.
Warren was recently interviewed by the Color of Change, a nonprofit civil rights advocacy organization that was formed in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
“We are past just protesting. We have to make real change in this country. And some of that is going to be on the legal side and some of it is going to be standing up and saying who we are as a people,” she told the group’s president, Rashad Robinson.
Before the Floyd death, strategists observed that she had notably appeared to pivot on her “Medicare for All” platform, something she vehemently ran on when she was trying to overtake Biden in the Democratic primaries.
“I think right now people want to see improvements in our health-care system, and that means strengthening the Affordable Care Act,” Warren recently told students at the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics, according to Politico.
The move suggests that she’s willing to ditch her original stance and instead broaden her appeal to moderate voters.
“It’s clear she would love to be picked and she’s running for vice president as she did for president,” Marsh said. “Her clarification on ‘Medicare for All’ shows she can be a team player.”
Representatives for Biden and all the potential VP nominees named in this story did not return requests for comment.
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]]>The post Exec leading Trump vaccine push has $10m holding in firm doing trial appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>- Dr Moncef Slaoui, a former pharma executive, was announced last week as a lead figure in President Donald Trump’s push for a coronavirus vaccine.
- Slaoui resigned as a director of the company Moderna — which is trialing one vaccine — to take the position.
- However, he continues to hold stock options worth more than $10 million in Moderna, which has seen its stock price skyrocket in recent months.
- Moderna’s stock climb was helped by an investment from the federal government, of which Slaoui is now a part.
- The holding has been called a potential conflict of interest, as Moderna’s vaccine could be a beneficiary of the program Saloui is leading.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
The former pharma executive tapped by President Donald Trump to lead the federal government’s hunt for a COVID-19 vaccine has more than $10 million in stock options in one of the companies receiving federal funding.
Dr Moncef Slaoui, a Belgian-American, was this week named Chief Scientist for Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed,” which aims to develop a working vaccine as fast as possible.
Slaoui addressed the media in a press conference on Friday in the White House Rose Garden, where Trump described him as one of the world’s pre-eminent experts on vaccines. He worked for years at GlaxoSmithKline, rising to the position of Head of Research and Development before leaving in 2017.
—ABC News (@ABC) May 15, 2020
In order to take up the position, Slaoui resigned his role on the board of directors for Moderna Inc., a biotech company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. According to the Associated Press, Slaoui’s White House role is unpaid.
However, filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission show that Slaoui continues to hold valuable stock options in Moderna.
Described across four separate filings, Slaoui has 155,438 options in Moderna. The stake is worth $10,366,000 at Moderna’s current share price, $66.69 at the time of publication.
Moderna shares have almost tripled in value during 2020. The $66.69 figure represents an increase of 184% from the $23.46 it was trading for on January 1.
Part of this sharp increase was fueled by an injection of more than $400 million from the federal government to assist trials of a coronavirus vaccine.
According to CNBC, Moderna, on April 17, announced $483 million of funding from a branch of the Department of Health and Human Services.
The healthcare website Stat News described Slaoui’s holding as “a potential conflict of interest” if it works and receives the massive acceleration promised by Trump’s “Warp Speed” plan.
In his Rose Garden appearance, Slaoui mentioned data from a particular clinical trial, which he said suggested a vaccine could be successful.
Addressing Trump, he said: “Mr. President, I have very recently seen early data from a clinical trial with a coronavirus vaccine. And this data made me feel even more confident that we will be able to deliver a few hundred million doses of vaccine by the end of 2020.”
While Slaoui did not name the trial in question, Stat News said he was “likely referencing” the Moderna trial, which is in a position to provide that data.
After news of Slaoui’s holding was published, former presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren said that Slaoui “must divest immediately.”
—Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) May 15, 2020
Business Insider has contacted Moderna and the White House for comment.
The Daily Beast said it attempted to contact Slaoui, but was unable to reach him.
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]]>The post COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in L.A. County, public health director says -TELEVISION appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>As the number of coronavirus-related deaths nears 800 in Los Angeles County, the public health director states the respiratory illness is now the leading cause of death in the county.
” More individuals are dying every day from COVID-19 than from other diseases that we track and get info on,” Dr. Barbara Ferrer stated, who added that an average of 44 individuals in the county pass away each day from the infection.
Back on April 12, the department reported 31 deaths from COVID-19 which was the area’s “highest daily count” at that point.
To put those figures in context, Ferrer said that usually, five individuals pass away from the flu daily during the influenza season, while 31 people pass away every day of coronary heart disease.
Los Angeles County authorities on Thursday verified an extra 68 coronavirus-related deaths and 1,081 brand-new COVID-19 cases throughout the region. The county’s death toll now stands at 797 with a total of 17,508 favorable cases.
Eighty-nine percent people who have actually passed away as a result of the infection had underlying health conditions. Among the 761 deaths where race and ethnic background have actually been recognized, 37 percent were Hispanic/Latino, 29 percent were white, 18 percent were Asian and 15 percent were African American. The remaining 2 percent were recognized as coming from another race and/or ethnic culture.
The announcement comes as Gov. Gavin Newsom likewise said that Wednesday was the deadliest day for the unique coronavirus in the state of California, with 115 deaths confirmed – a figure he used to underscore the significance of waiting until the right minute to begin state’s reopening.
Copyright © 2020 KABC-TV. All Rights Reserved.
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]]>The post Leading model projects some states might resume by May 4. Not so quickly, say other modelers. appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>A leading coronavirus forecasting model– utilized by the White House– forecasted Friday that some states may be able to relieve social distancing limitations and reopen as early as Might 4.
But on the exact same day those projections were issued by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington– providing suggested dates for reopening all 50 states– a consortium of specialists in Texas launched a contending model that explains what they call defects in the IHME model and analysis revealing circumstances in which IHME’s forecasts have actually fallen short of reality.
The clashing data and forecasts highlight the uncertainty U.S. leaders will deal with in coming months as they come to grips with how to resume the nation and its economy without risking a resurgence of viral infections, overwhelmed health centers and deaths.
The developer of IHME’s design, Christopher Murray, stated his group retooled its model to be able to recommend particular dates due to the fact that of extreme arguments in current weeks over when and how to resume states.
President Trump has consistently declared he desires states resumed as soon as possible, declaring in back-to-back tweets Friday: “LIBERATE MINNESOTA,” “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA.” Also Friday, the governors of Texas and Vermont revealed dates for reducing particular limitations.
The IHME design jobs that a minimum of 4 states could ease limitations as early as May 4: Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia. Other states require to wait as late as June or early July: Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah.
The brand-new dates recommended by the IHME represent when states can shift from dependence on drastic restrictions to other methods such as screening, contact tracing and targeted quarantines to keep the infection in check.
The essential measurement IHME modelers used in identifying the date is when they think infections in a state will drop listed below 1 infection per 1 million people. That measurement is imperfect because numerous other elements that go into deciding to lift constraints– including whether a state has enough testing or adequate public health employees to do the labor-intensive work of contact tracing. Checking capability remains woefully lacking across the country, and regional health departments do not have the needed staff, cash and training to do get in touch with tracing called for in most professionals’ plans to reopen.
Murray stated his IHME modelers attempted to include such consider their models however could not find data that might be utilized empirically. Rather, they chose to utilize the 1 infection per 1 million cutoff with the assumption that, at that low level, states would be more readily able to do the necessary testing and contact tracing.
Lots of epidemiologists and modelers have expressed growing concern over the IHME design. While it is among the only designs that offers forecasts state-by-state on specific dates for projected peaks and nationwide projections on deaths, its forecasts have frequently encountered other designs. Its forecasts for equipment lacks and deaths are often below other models. The White House has at times utilized the design’s more-optimistic estimates to reject devices demands.
On Friday, a few hours prior to the IHME statement, a consortium at the University of Texas at Austin launched a design that takes the IHME forecast as a beginning point but tries to fix what the Texas researchers view as flaws.
Among the greatest flaws the Texas experts point out is that the IHME design declares more certainty as it moves even more into the future, with a shrinking margin of error. That runs counter to how most designs work, due to the fact that the future generally ends up being significantly uncertain in long-range forecasts. In weather forecasts, for example, forecasting rain tomorrow is much easier than forecasting rain a month out.
” The motivation for producing our model was a concern about the certainty individuals may be crediting to the IHME model,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, who led the Texas group of researchers.
Other important distinctions: The IHME design anticipates the United States currently passed its peak of deaths this week. The Texas model takes a various method, connecting probabilities to dates. There is just a 17 percent possibility that the peak has already passed, it found, and an 80 percent opportunity the peak will happen by May 7.
The Texas researchers’ paper also included analysis of IHME’s past forecasts compared with real deaths per day and discovered, for instance, that the model undervalued deaths in Italy and Spain. The number of deaths in recent days, in fact, did not fall within IHME’s projected margin of error.
Meyers said the IHME design has much worth and pointed out her design would not exist if Murray did not create the IHME design.
” This is not a competitors. We’re standing on their shoulders,” she said. “But like lots of modelers, we are continually attempting to enhance our methods and make our projections as trusted as possible. With cities and states making life and death decisions based on these designs, the stakes are high.”
Murray likewise warned, “If I were a guv of a state, I would not decide to reopen based upon simply our model. We are trying to provide guvs and others a sense of when the threat of revival is going to get lower. I would suggest looking at these kinds of designs, but also a series of signs like the capability of your public health workers and whether your cases and deaths have been up to a low enough level.”
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