{"id":43129,"date":"2020-06-15T10:21:06","date_gmt":"2020-06-15T10:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/were-thinking-landslide-beyond-d-c-gop-officials-see-trump-on-glide-path-to-reelection\/"},"modified":"2020-06-15T10:21:06","modified_gmt":"2020-06-15T10:21:06","slug":"were-thinking-landslide-beyond-d-c-gop-officials-see-trump-on-glide-path-to-reelection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/were-thinking-landslide-beyond-d-c-gop-officials-see-trump-on-glide-path-to-reelection\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018We\u2019re thinking landslide\u2019: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nPresident Donald Trump. | Alex Brandon\/AP Photo<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated.<\/p>\n

But throughout the Republican Party\u2019s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump\u2019s re-election campaign is hardening around a fundamentally different view.<\/p>\n

Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago \u2014 and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn\u2019t get it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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\u201cThe more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,\u201d said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. \u201cWe\u2019re calling him \u2018Teflon Trump.\u2019 Nothing\u2019s going to stick, because if anything, it\u2019s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n

This year, Stephens said, \u201cWe\u2019re thinking landslide.\u201d<\/p>\n

Five months before the election, many state and county Republican Party chairs predict a close election. Yet from the Eastern seaboard to the West Coast and the battlegrounds in between, there is an overriding belief that, just as Trump defied political gravity four years ago, there\u2019s no reason he won\u2019t do it again.<\/p>\n

Andrew Hitt, the state party chairman in Wisconsin, said that during the height of public attention on the coronavirus, in late March and early April, internal polling suggested \u201csome sagging off where we wanted to be.\u201d<\/p>\n

But now, he said, \u201cThings are coming right back where we want them \u2026 That focus on the economy and on re-opening and bringing America back is resonating with people.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Ohio, Jane Timken, the state party chair, said she sees no evidence of support for Trump slipping. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the Minnesota Republican Party, said the same. And Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, went so far as to predict that Trump would not only carry his state, but beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes \u2014 more than twice the margin he mustered in 2016.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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\u201cContrary to what may be portrayed in the media, there\u2019s still a high level of support out there,\u201d said Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party. He described himself as \u201cway more\u201d optimistic than he was at this point in 2016.<\/p>\n

The Republican Party apparatus that Trump heads in 2020 is considerably different than the one that looked at him warily in 2016. At the state level, many chairs who were considered insufficiently committed to the president were ousted and replaced with loyalists. But their assessments would be easier to dismiss as spin if the perception of Trump\u2019s durability did not reach so far beyond GOP officialdom. <\/p>\n

When pollsters ask Americans who they think will<\/i> win the election \u2014 not who they are voting for themselves \u2014 Trump performs relatively well<\/u><\/a>. <\/b>And if anything, Trump\u2019s field officers appear more bullish than Trump and some of his advisers<\/u><\/a>. Even the president, while lamenting what he views as unfair treatment by his adversaries, has privately expressed concerns<\/u><\/a> about his poll numbers and publicly seemed to acknowledge he is down. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf I wasn\u2019t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I\u2019d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,\u201d he said on Twitter last week. \u201cVery unfair, but it is what it is!!!\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet in the states, the Republican Party’s rank-and-file are largely unconvinced that the president is precariously positioned in his reelection bid.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe narrative from the Beltway is not accurate,\u201d said Joe Bush, chairman of the Republican Party in Muskegon County, Mich., which Trump lost narrowly in 2016. \u201cHere in the heartland, everybody is still very confident, more than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists\u2019 assessment of the state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters are this far from the election. <\/b>And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level of support.<\/p>\n

Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota\u2019s 8th Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters \u201cjust exactly the opposite of what they feel.\u201d<\/p>\n

When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, \u201cI don\u2019t like some of their questions. It\u2019s none of their business what I do.\u201d<\/p>\n

Recalling that polls four years ago failed to predict the outcome, Jack Brill, acting chairman of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said, \u201cI used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016 \u2026 Guess what? I\u2019m not watching polls.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, as they prepare for a post-lockdown summer of party picnics and parades, Republican Party organizers sense the beginnings of an economic recovery that, if sustained, is likely to power Trump to a second term. They also see a more immediate opening in the civil unrest surrounding the death of George Floyd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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\u201cThe further and further the Democrats tack left, and the further you get to where it\u2019s the defunding the police,\u201d said Scott Frostman, GOP chairman in Wisconsin\u2019s Sauk County, which Obama won easily in 2012 but flipped to Trump four years later. \u201cI think we have the opportunity as Republicans to talk to people a little bit more about some common sense things.\u201d<\/p>\n

Biden has rejected a national movement to defund police departments. But elections are often painted in broad strokes, and local party officials expect Trump \u2014 with his law and order rhetoric \u2014 will be the beneficiary of what they see as Democratic overreach.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding the police and nonsense like that,\u201d said Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona, a Trump stronghold in 2016.\u201d \u201cMost of the American people are looking like that saying, \u2018Really?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

By most objective measures, Trump will need something to drag Biden down. He has fallen behind Biden in most swing state polls, and he lags the former vice president nationally by more than 8 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Gallup poll last week put Trump\u2019s approval rating at just 39 percent, down 10 percentage points from a month ago. Democrats appear competitive not only in expected swing states, but in places such as Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won easily in 2016.<\/p>\n

Little of that data is registering, however. State and local officials point to Trump\u2019s financial and organizational advantages and see Biden as a weak opponent. They\u2019re eager for Trump to eviscerate him in debates. \u201cWhile the Democrats have been spending their time playing Paper Rock Scissors on who their nominee is going to be, we\u2019ve been building an army,\u201d said Terry Lathan, chair of the Alabama Republican Party. <\/p>\n

James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, said it took Biden \u201cdays to figure out how to even successfully operate, or communicate out of a bunker\u201d and that he \u201chas clearly not been able to deal with any real challenging interview.\u201d<\/p>\n

Local officials <\/b>brush off criticism of Trump by Republican fixtures such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said last week<\/u><\/a> that Trump \u201clies all the time.\u201d They dismiss press accounts of the race. Dennis Coxwell, the chairman of Georgia\u2019s Warren County Republican Party, said: \u201cIt\u2019s gotten to a point where I cannot believe anything that the news media says.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many admire Trump\u2019s bluntest instincts \u2014 the same ones that have cost him among women and independent voters, according to polls. \u201cThe left called George Bush all kinds of names and just savaged him all the time \u2026 and Bush never said a word,\u201d said Burke, who worked for Trump in the late 1980s and early 1990s overseeing his fleet of helicopters. \u201cIt was frustrating for those of us on the right. Now a guy comes along, you attack him, you\u2019re getting it back double barrel. And everybody\u2019s sitting around saying, \u2018Yeah, that\u2019s right, give it to \u2018em.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

And most of all, they put their confidence in an expectation that the economy will improve by fall.<\/p>\n

Doyle Webb, chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party and general counsel to the Republican National Committee, said the only concern that he would have about Trump\u2019s reelection prospects is \u201cif the economy had another downturn.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cBut I don\u2019t see that happening,\u201d Webb said.<\/p>\n

Instead, he predicted an improving job outlook and a return to \u201cthe old Clinton mantra: \u2018It\u2019s the economy, stupid.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think that people will be happy,\u201d Webb said, \u201cand [Trump] will be re-elected.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a widely-held view. In Pennsylvania last week, Veral Salmon, the Republican Party chairman of the state\u2019s bellwether Erie County, measured enthusiasm for Trump by the large number of requests he has received for Trump yard signs. In Maine, Melvin Williams, chairman of the Lincoln County Republican Committee, saw it in a population he said is \u201cgetting sick of this bullshit,\u201d blaming coronavirus-related shutdowns on Democrats. And across the country, in heavily Democratic San Francisco, John Dennis, the chairman of the local GOP, was encouraged by the decreasing number of emails from the \u201cNever Trump\u201d crowd.<\/p>\n

Not in his city, but nationally, Dennis said, \u201cI\u2019m pretty confident that [Trump] is going to pull it off.\u201d
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President Donald Trump. | Alex Brandon\/AP Photo By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated. But throughout the Republican Party\u2019s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump\u2019s re-election campaign is hardening around…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[5763,3014],"class_list":{"0":"post-43129","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-landslide","9":"tag-thinking"},"yoast_head":"\n\u2018We\u2019re thinking landslide\u2019: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection - Virus Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/were-thinking-landslide-beyond-d-c-gop-officials-see-trump-on-glide-path-to-reelection\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018We\u2019re thinking landslide\u2019: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection - Virus Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Donald Trump. | Alex Brandon\/AP Photo By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. 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