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]]>A panel of three federal judges in New York on Thursday prohibited the Trump administration from moving forward with plans to exclude undocumented immigrants from the count used to determine the number of seats states receive in the House of Representatives. The decision temporarily halts an unprecedented proposal with potentially seismic political ramifications.
At the center of Thursday’s ruling is a proclamation issued by Mr. Trump in July telling Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who oversees the U.S. Census Bureau, to facilitate the collection of data that would allow him to remove immigrants without legal status from the count used for congressional apportionment. The constitutionally-mandated process to determine the number of House seats each state has occurs every 10 years after the census is taken.
The three-judge panel, which convened specifically to hear the case, said the proposal violates federal laws that govern the redrawing of congressional seats and the census count. The judges did not address whether Mr. Trump’s directive is constitutional.
“By directing the Secretary to provide two sets of numbers, one derived from the decennial census and one not, and announcing that it is the policy of the United States to use the latter in connection with apportionment, the Presidential Memorandum deviates from, and thus violates, the statutory scheme,” the judges wrote. “Second, the Presidential Memorandum violates the statute governing apportionment because, so long as they reside in the United States, illegal aliens qualify as “persons in” a “State” as Congress used those words.”
Thursday’s order stems from a lawsuit mounted by a coalition of states led by New York. The legal challenge is one of several filed against Mr. Trump’s directive in federal courts across the country.
“The courts have ruled in our favor on every census matter in the last two years and continually rejected President Trump’s unlawful efforts to manipulate the census for political purposes,” New York Attorney General Leticia James said in a statement.
According to an estimate by the Pew Research Center, California, Texas and Florida would get fewer seats than expected in the House of Representatives if Mr. Trump’s changes are instituted. Alabama, Minnesota and Ohio, on the other hand, would keep seats they would otherwise have lost.
The Census Bureau’s efforts to count people for the 2020 census — which have been hindered by the coronavirus pandemic — are currently underway. Earlier in the month, a federal judge in California blocked the administration from shortening the final deadline to collect census responses, a move advocates say would lead to an undercount, particularly among communities of color.
Since the first census was taken in 1790, the U.S. has always counted both citizens and non-citizens, regardless of their immigration status, for the purposes of congressional apportionment. The Constitution stipulates that each state must have at least one representative, and that the apportionment of other seats should be based on an enumeration of the population.
Until the 14th Amendment was ratified in the 1860s, enslaved African Americans were counted as three-fifths of a person for congressional apportionment. American Indians who were classified as “not taxed” were excluded until 1940.
The 14th Amendment also requires Representatives to be apportioned based on “the whole number of persons in each State.” In his order in July, Mr. Trump said that because “persons” is not defined, he has the “authority to exclude from the apportionment base aliens who are not in a lawful immigration status.” Doing so, he added, would uphold the principles of a representative democracy.
Officials at the Census Bureau and the Departments of Justice and Commerce did not respond to requests for comment on Thursday’s order, which could be appealed to the U.S Supreme Court.
Mr. Trump’s order in July is part of a broader effort by his administration to change how people in the U.S. are counted in the census and how that data should be used.
The Trump administration first proposed including a question on U.S. citizenship during the 2020 census in March 2018. But its efforts do so, which it said were aimed at enforcing the Voting Rights Act of 1965, elicited a flurry of legal challenges that ended up in the Supreme Court, which blocked the administration from adding the question in time for the questionnaires to be printed.
During the litigation over the question, it was revealed that Thomas Hofeller, a now deceased conservative political operative, played a role in helping the administration craft the justification for the citizenship question addition, which he said in a 2015 study would allow officials to draw electoral maps advantageous to “Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites.”
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]]>In order to meet that deadline, Dillingham said, “field data collection” will conclude by Sept. 30. Professional staff at the bureau has said that finishing the count by the end of next month is not possible after a pandemic-prompted delay in operations earlier this year.
Dillingham also said the bureau “continues its work on meeting the requirements” of two Trump orders: a July 2019 executive order that asked administrative agencies to collect data on undocumented immigrants in order to provide counts that states could use to draw state legislative maps that did not include those people; and a presidential memorandum from last month instructing the Census Bureau to calculate apportionment counts — the number of congressional seats each state will have in the next decade — without undocumented immigrants included.
“A team of experts are examining methodologies and options to be employed for this purpose,” Dillingham said.
Excluding these immigrants would likely benefit Republicans in future elections for Congress and the presidency. According to the University of Virginia Center for Politics, a count that did not include undocumented immigrants would mean California would lose two House seats, not the one seat the state is projected to lose in the next decade. Fast-growing Texas, increasingly a competitive state, would gain two seats instead of three. New Jersey would lose a seat.
Alabama and Ohio, meanwhile, would each gain a seat under a count that excluded undocumented immigrants — though they are not currently projected to gain seats under a conventional count.
Democrats and other groups have already moved to challenge Trump’s recent order, arguing that the Constitution does not allow the census to count some people in the country for the purposes of House apportionment and not others based on immigration status. The 14th Amendment says the House seats should be divided among the states “according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state, excluding Indians not taxed.”
In his memorandum last month, Trump wrote that the Constitution “has never been understood to include in the apportionment base every individual physically present within a State’s boundaries at the time of the census. Instead, the term ‘persons in each State’ has been interpreted to mean that only the ‘inhabitants’ of each State should be included. Determining which persons should be considered ‘inhabitants‘ for the purpose of apportionment requires the exercise of judgment.“
Eric Holder, a former attorney general under President Barack Obama who leads the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and its affiliated nonprofit, said last month that Trump’s order “clearly” violated the Constitution.
“This latest scheme is nothing more than a partisan attempt at manipulating the census to benefit the president’s allies, but it plainly violates the U.S. Constitution and federal laws, and cannot stand,” said Holder, whose nonprofit group is supporting a lawsuit seeking to halt the administration’s move.
Trump has made numerous efforts to exclude undocumented immigrants from the count for the purposes of political representation. After the Supreme Court smacked down a move to add a citizenship question to the census last year, Trump‘s 2019 order asked other government agencies to provide data on citizenship that could be used to create a count of noncitizens.
At the time, administration officials said citizenship data could be used by the states to draw state legislative districts of equal population of citizens instead of all people — which would likely shift power from more densely populated cities to rural areas.
Like many aspects of public- and private-sector organizations, the coronavirus outbreak has roiled the Census Bureau‘s operations. In April, the bureau asked Congress to delay the requirement to submit apportionment data until the end of April 2021. But since then — as Trump’s poll numbers have faltered — the administration has pushed to meet its original deadlines.
At a hearing last week before the Democratic-controlled House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Dillingham repeatedly declined to say whether the bureau stood by its original request for an extension.
The House has already approved a provision extending the deadline. But the Republican coronavirus relief proposal in the Senate, on which the chamber has not acted, did not include an extension.
According to Dillingham’s statement, “nearly 63 percent of all households” have completed the census thus far.
“We will improve the speed of our count without sacrificing completeness,“ Dillingham said, adding that the bureau would “provide awards“ to employees “in recognition of those who maximize hours worked.“
Zach Montellaro contributed to this report.
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]]>The man who designed the method Homeland Security uses to estimate the number of illegal immigrants says there’s just too much margin for error to use it to carry out President Trump’s new executive order to strip illegal immigrants out of the census count used to apportion congressional seats.
Most of the public debate over Mr. Trump’s order centers on whether it’s legal.
But Robert Warren, a demographer who used to work for the government and is now at the Center for Migration Studies in New York, told The Washington Times whatever the legality — which he very much doubts — it’s also unworkable.
Given the tools the government has right now, he can’t see how they could come up with a number accurate enough to rely on for something as important as doling out seats in the U.S. House for the next decade.
“It’s not possible to do it accurately,” Mr. Warren says. “The problem is that the estimates are not precise enough.”
Mr. Trump’s order does not affect who’s counted by the census. Illegal immigrants will be tallied like everyone else.
But when the administration produces the count to be used to assign the 435 seats in the House of Representatives to the various states, Mr. Trump wants to delete the number of illegal immigrants as much as practicable, arguing they distort political power by unfairly boosting the populations of some states.
Census Bureau Director Steven Dillingham told Congress last week his agency is just at the beginning of trying to figure out how to carry out the president’s order.
“We are going to analyze the data that we have and look at the methodologies that might be employed for that purpose,” he said.
The key to Mr. Trump’s order is getting good state counts of the population without illegal immigrants.
Mr. Warren says the system used by the government begins by trying to estimate the foreign-born population based on the American Community Survey.
That’s what used to be the census’s long form, a lengthy set of questions sent to a much smaller subset of people than the full 2020 census will reach. The ACS asks about place of birth — and, ironically, also asks about current citizenship, a question that was deeply controversial when Mr. Trump suggested including it in the full census.
Once the foreign born estimate is known, analysts subtract the known number of people admitted legally by year, and subtract that from the foreign born. They also factor in mortality and emigration, and what’s left over is an estimate of the unauthorized population.
That can also be done by state.
But one problem, Mr. Warren said, is the emigration calculation is based on calculations from 40 years ago.
More troubling for apportionment purposes, there’s no way to account for internal migration. So someone who applied for a green card from California in 1990 is assumed to still be living there, even though he may have moved many times since.
So even if the government could give a decent estimate of the unauthorized population nationally, accurately placing them state-by-state is not possible given the method the feds use.
“I do not think it can be done. On any data system that I’ve heard proposed, it cannot be done,” Mr. Warren says.
He says the methodology he now uses at CMS is more accurate. He starts with the universe of people who say they entered after 1982 — the effective date of the last major amnesty — then subtracts those who have a high probability of being legal, based on things like their use of government programs only open to legal residents.
He makes other adjustments, such as for undercounting in the census itself, and ends up with a universe of people in the country illegally — which he can then identify by the state they listed in the ACS.
The Times asked whether, if the government came calling, he would share his data. He said he hasn’t been asked, and seemed skeptical CMS would be willing to participate in Mr. Trump’s project anyway.
Mr. Trump’s executive order was vague on how the government should go about trying to delete illegal immigrants from the count.
The most obvious option would be to use statistical methods like the ones Mr. Warren created.
But the administration could also try to knock out individual people it figures are illegally present, by matching names, addresses and ages in the census data with information Homeland Security has in its own files.
That would involve taking lists of people known to be here illegally, such as people in deportation proceedings or who have pending asylum claims. The government probably knows specific identities of a few million illegal immigrants or other unauthorized residents based on their current efforts to adjust status or claim protections under humanitarian programs, said Steven A. Camarota, a demographer at the Center for Immigration Studies.
But that’s a fraction of the total population, which experts say is at least 10 million.
It also leaves tricky questions about whether people with DACA or Temporary Protected Status would be counted as legal or illegal residents.
Amy O’Hara, the former chief of administrative records at the Census Bureau and now a professor at Georgetown University, told Science magazine that the systems just don’t exist to sort out all immigrants by legal status.
“I don’t know what set of data sources the bureau could identify for that purpose,” she said. “And for the ones they have, it’s not clear how they would operationalize them.”
Whatever method Mr. Trump’s team does try, it’s going to be snared in the courts for years, with the questions raised by Mr. Warren likely to poke holes in whatever answers the government comes up with.
“As a practical matter, it’s very difficult to actually do,” Mr. Camarota said.
But he said it is an important conversation for the country to have, because it underscores some of the consequences of illegal immigration.
“If they’re included, American citizens lose political representation in some areas of the country to give to other areas of the country where a large fraction of the people are illegal immigrants,” he said.
In estimates he published last year, Mr. Camarota said the difference between counting or excluding illegal immigrants shifts three seats. With illegal immigrants included, California, Texas and New York each have an additional seat. Without them, those seats would go to Ohio, Alabama and Minnesota.
Republicans point out that some of the official census count is already a guess.
If a household doesn’t reply, statisticians “impute” data for that home by extrapolating from nearby households that did provide answers.
“There are times when we have reason to believe, evidence, that someone is living in that household but we are unable to communicate with them, that in fact we do have an imputation accepted method that has been accepted by the courts,” Mr. Dillingham told Congress.
Rep. Chip Roy, Texas Republican, was more blunt: “It means that we make stuff up,” he said.
Mr. Roy also pointed out that the American Community Survey, which is an estimate and not an actual count, is already used for enforcing the Voting Rights Act. He said it’s not a big leap from that to using ACS calculations to come up with reapportionment data.
Multiple lawsuits have been filed to block Mr. Trump’s order. All of them argue he’s violating the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, approved in the wake of the Civil War.
That amendment reads: “Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed.”
In a congressional hearing last week, four past directors of the Census Bureau were asked if that covers illegal immigrants. All four said it does.
But Attorney General William P. Barr, at a different hearing on Capitol Hill, said the “whole number of persons” section is usually read to mean inhabitants. Congress, he said, has the right to define who qualifies as an inhabitant, and it has delegated that to the Commerce Department within the executive branch — meaning the president can decide.
“So as the law stands now we think the Commerce secretary as the delegate of congressional power can define that term,” he said. “That’s a reasonable argument to make.”
Immigration — legal and illegal — plays a massive role in determining how much a single citizen’s vote counts.
In California’s 21st Congressional District, for example, nearly 30% of the adult population is not a citizen. By contrast, in the state’s 1st District just 3.4% are not citizens, according to Mr. Camarota’s data.
In 2018 a Democrat won a tight election in the 21st District with just 57,239 votes out of about 114,000 cast. California’s 1st District saw a Republican win more comfortably, with 160,046 votes out of more than 291,000 cast. That means each voter in the 1st District counted less than half what a voter in the 21st District counted when it came to selecting a representative.
In Texas, meanwhile, more than 300,000 votes were cast in the 25th Congressional District in 2018, and a Republican won with about 163,000. Up the state in the 33rd District, fewer than 120,000 votes were cast and a Democrat won with about 91,000.
Mr. Camarota says on average about half of non-citizens are in the country illegal, with variability among the states — the rate is a little lower in California, and a little higher in Texas.
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