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The post Congressional Budget Office: Federal debt nears ‘unsustainable’ levels appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>Federal debt is nearing “unsustainable” levels, but low interest rates have created a window of opportunity for policy-makers to rein it in, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday, delivering a mixed outlook for the government’s long-term outlook.
Federal spending, currently 21% of gross domestic product, will rise to 31% by 2050, with most of that increase coming from interest payments on the rising debt, said Phillip J. Swagel, CBO’s director. Federal revenue, meanwhile, stood at just 16% of GDP last year, and will only reach 19% by 2050.
The gap between those spending and revenue numbers illustrates the problem.
“The fiscal path over the coming decades is unsustainable,” Mr. Swagel said in a stark statement describing CBO’s findings.
Federal debt held by the public will reach 98% of gross domestic product this year and will cross the 100% threshold next year.
It will reach a record 107% in 2023, and by 2050 — the end of CBO’s budget window — it will be a staggering 195% of GDP.
The coronavirus pandemic is a major cause of that, piling up debt this year and next, CBO said. But the problems run much deeper than virus spending.
Four of the government’s trust funds will be exhausted by 2031, including both Social Security funds, Medicare’s hospital insurance fund and the Highway Trust Fund.
Even treading water, much less making headway on the debt, will require significant sacrifices.
Mr. Swagel said it will mean sustained tax increases, spending cuts or a combination of the two, of nearly 3% of GDP a year.
If that began in 2025, it would add $2,200 that year to the average American’s tax bill or cost that much in lower federal spending.
Waiting longer to begin means even deeper spending cuts or tax hikes would be needed.
It’s not likely the economy can grow quickly enough to erase the need for spending cuts or tax increases, Mr. Swagel said.
Some economists have argued that the 100% debt mark is a clear danger sign for major world economies. CBO didn’t subscribe to that, but said there is some line out there.
“There is no set tipping point at which a fiscal crisis becomes likely or imminent, nor is there an identifiable point at which interest costs as a percentage of GDP become unsustainable. But as the debt grows, the risks become greater,” Mr. Swagel said.
Among the dangers are the more the government owes to foreign creditors, the less income the U.S. has. And the worse the budget picture, the less room the government has to maneuver in future fiscal crises, CBO said.
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]]>The post Federal budget deficit slows as IRS sees record tax receipts appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>Uncle Sam collected $563 billion in July, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday, setting a new monthly record for federal income and helping slow the growth of the record-shattering deficit that’s built up during the coronavirus pandemic.
CBO said about half of that money comes from the IRS’s delayed tax deadlines. The agency moved its largest annual payment deadline from April to July this year, to give taxpayers a chance to get their affairs in order amid the pandemic.
That pushed receipts up 124% compared to July 2019, CBO said, and it helped to soften what’s been a sharply climbing deficit.
Uncle Sam was just $61 billion in the red for the month, compared to more than $864 billion in June, nearly $399 billion in May and more than $738 billion in April.
All told, the deficit through the first 10 months of the fiscal year is now $2.8 trillion — double the previous record set under President Obama — with two more months of pandemic spending still to go.
CBO said the year can be divided into before the pandemic — the period from October through February — and during the pandemic from March on.
Before, Uncle Sam’s receipts were coming in 6% ahead. Over the last four months, though, they’ve been about 10% behind 2019, suggesting the extent of the economic headwinds.
The biggest fiscal damage from the virus has come on the spending side, where spending during the pandemic months has totaled $3.3 trillion. That’s nearly $1.8 trillion more than the same period in 2019.
With two months still to go in the fiscal year, the deficit already stands at a staggering $2.8 trillion. That’s double the previous record set under President Obama during the Great Recession.
In July alone, CBO said, unemployment benefits rose from $3 billion last year to $110 billion this year. The Small Business Administration, which administers the Paycheck Protection Program loan guarantees, saw its spending rise from $103 million in July 2019 to $26 billion last month — a 250-fold increase.
Other welfare-style programs like Medicaid and food assistance also rose as people in hard times rushed to sign up.
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]]>The post U.S. budget deficit shattered one-month record in June as spending outpaced revenue by $864 billion appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>The U.S. budget deficit widened to a record-high $864 billion last month because of the federal government’s extraordinary response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Treasury Department said on Monday.
In June 2019, the budget deficit was just $8 billion.
Federal spending rose to more than $1.1 trillion in June, more than twice what the U.S. government spends in a typical month. The amount of tax revenue collected by the federal government remained largely flat, at about $240 billion, in part because the Treasury Department delayed the tax filing deadline until July.
The huge surge in June pushed the budget deficit for the first nine months of the fiscal year to $2.7 trillion.
June’s deficit figures highlight just how much havoc the coronavirus pandemic has wreaked on U.S. budgeting. In prior years, the federal deficit was considered large when it approached or eclipsed $1 trillion for an entire year. The United States spent about $2 trillion more than it took in via tax revenue from April to June alone.
Congress in March approved $2 trillion in spending that took several months to take effect as the economy contracted because of the pandemic. Those efforts included larger benefits for unemployed Americans, $1,200 stimulus payments and small-business relief. Economists say that the funding was badly needed to prevent tens of millions of Americans from being hurt by the pandemic and that more remains necessary.
“Big government deficits are the only thing keeping the U.S. economy on life support, and anti-deficit rhetoric threatens to pull the plug,” said Nathan Tankus, research director at the Modern Money Network. “The alternative is mass defaults, evictions and bankruptcies, which will devastate the United States.”
The big increase in the deficit from May to June is largely due to an accounting change related to the more than $500 billion in small-business aid approved by Congress through the Paycheck Protection Program. Previously, the Treasury Department did not count the PPP’s forgivable loans as spending, but that changed from April to June. Most of the PPP loans to companies are expected to be forgiven and paid off by the government.
Some budget experts predict U.S. spending will have to be cut after the economy improves. The current deficit is more than triple what was lodged over the same period last year. Before the pandemic, the previous biggest one-month deficit in the United States was $234 billion.
“Today’s record deficits are mainly a product of our response to the current pandemic,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “Once the economy recovers, we need to get our deficit under control.”
Numerous White House officials and conservative Republican lawmakers have expressed frustration with the amount of spending approved by Congress and stressed caution over further efforts. As a result, the GOP opted for a wait-and-see approach while House Democrats approved more than $3 trillion in new spending in May. Concerns about the deficit have affected the current round of negotiations, with some White House and GOP officials pushing for the next stimulus package to cost only $1 trillion.
Discussions are expected to pick up in the coming days as officials must decide what to do with expiring emergency unemployment benefits.
Except for a brief period at the end of the Clinton administration, the federal government has traditionally spent more money than it brings in through taxes and other revenue. To cover the difference, the government issues debt.
Interest rates are very low, which makes this debt cheap to finance, but the debt continues to accumulate at a very rapid pace. The government ran a deficit that exceeded $1 trillion in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 because of the impact of the financial crisis, but the one-year deficit contracted and was $442 billion in 2015.
The Trump administration, through a combination of tax cuts and spending increases, pushed to expand the deficit again, and it reached $984 billion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, several months before the pandemic reached the United States.
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]]>The post AOC says NYPD budget cuts not enough: ‘Defunding police means defunding police’ appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declared Tuesday that “defunding police means defunding police” and that proposed budget cuts to the New York City Police Department aren’t enough to combat inequality.
“Defunding police means defunding police,” the Democrat said in a statement Tuesday to the Gotham Gazette, Fox News reported. “It does not mean budget tricks or funny math. It does not mean moving school police officers from the NYPD budget to the Department of Education’s budget so the exact same police remain in schools.
“It does not mean counting overtime cuts as cuts, even as NYPD ignores every attempt by City Council to curb overtime spending and overspends on overtime anyways,” she continued. “It does not mean hiring more police officers while cutting more than $800 million from NYC schools.
“If these reports are accurate, then these proposed ‘cuts’ to the NYPD budget are a disingenuous illusion,” she added. “This is not a victory. The fight to defund policing continues.”
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez was responding to reports that the New York City Council and Mayor Bill de Blasio reached a deal Tuesday to cut $1 billion from the NYPD’s $6 billion budget.
The 50 members of the City Council will vote Tuesday evening on the proposal, which will redirect the $1 billion to things like summer youth programs and social services.
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]]>The post New York budget crisis takes de Blasio back to the ’70s appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>After years of free-flowing spending that’s driven his liberal agenda through a record bull market, the Democratic mayor is scrambling as the locked down, virus-ravaged city’s shortfall surged $1.6 billion over the past month alone.
De Blasio said he wants the option to borrow his way out of the hole — barring a multi-billion-dollar coronavirus relief package from the Trump administration — a power so unusual, it was blocked after the 1970s crisis. But the mayor needs state approval and so far Albany isn’t playing ball.
Fiscal watchdogs are calling for more austerity first.
Scott Stringer, the Democratic city comptroller running to succeed de Blasio, estimated that borrowing to cover $7 billion in expenses now would cost the city nearly $11 billion over the next two decades. He seconded the push for federal funding, but sounded the alarm over City Hall’s extraordinary request.
“While it’s too soon to rule out any specific budget action, New Yorkers should know that under the mayor’s proposal our children could be paying over $500 million a year for the next 20 years,” Stringer said. “I urge extreme caution.”
Others were even more dire.
“The city has not come close to what it needs to do to control spending to get its fiscal house in order,” Andrew Rein, head of the Citizens Budget Commission, said in an interview. “Borrowing should be near or at the bottom of any list and we are not close to there yet.”
The state Legislature didn’t take up the borrowing bill last week — and it is unclear if it will before the city’s spending plan must be adopted by the July 1 fiscal year. In Washington, partisan divisions have made any federal aid uncertain.
But other resolutions are anathema to de Blasio, who entered the 2013 mayor’s race with a call to tax the wealthiest New Yorkers to pay for universal pre-kindergarten. (He won the policy, not the tax, after taking office.)
Instead, the mayor is hoping to get through this crisis without substantive budget cuts. He’s bristled at calls to reduce city services or delay raises workers are guaranteed through labor contracts. Layoffs and furloughs are a last resort, he’s said. He’s even skipped his routine demand that Albany raise taxes on top earners and high-end home sales — targets he has eyed virtually every year of his mayoralty.
City officials said the mayor is concerned about the potential exodus of millionaires who keep the economic engines humming, and realizes some New Yorkers may not be able to afford current property tax bills, let alone higher ones.
In similarly dire financial straits, de Blasio’s predecessor, Mike Bloomberg, relied on politically unpopular tax increases: He raised property taxes 18 percent following the Sept. 11 terror attacks and pushed for a 7 percent increase after the financial collapse years later. He repeatedly cut social services and tried to close fire houses and elderly centers. He even wanted to get rid of the office of public advocate, which later served as a mayoral launching pad for de Blasio. And during his final term in office, Bloomberg balked at the demands of municipal unions, leaving the entire workforce without contracts.
De Blasio has an entirely different attitude toward governing. He fought Bloomberg’s cuts when he was in the City Council, barely slashed anything after taking over City Hall in 2014 and has in fact increased the budget some $20 billion during his six years in office.
So instead, he is pinning his hopes on Washington replenishing the city’s coffers while seeking borrowing authority from Albany — in each case leaving the city’s fate in the hands of a political adversary. (Gov. Andrew Cuomo threw cold water on the idea last week.)
“We are now $9 billion in the hole between the current fiscal year and the one that begins July 1,” de Blasio said Wednesday. “We project unfortunately beyond next fiscal year additional lost revenue that will hold us back further. There is literally no way that we can solve this problem without federal help or without having to make very, very painful choices that will affect the quality of life in this city.”
De Blasio projected a $7.4 billion revenue shortfall when he released his revised $89.3 billion budget in April, largely due to a loss of personal income taxes as the job market faltered.
City officials attributed the additional $1.6 billion the mayor announced last week to the grim state New York finds itself in after two months under assault by Covid-19: Even lower sales and real estate taxes than budget officials initially forecast.
The city routinely takes on debt to pay for long-term construction and infrastructure projects, but it is not allowed to borrow for its annual operating budget — a prohibition dating back to the financial crisis of the 1970s. New York City had been borrowing money to stay afloat then borrowing more to pay off prior loans. In the spring of 1975 the banks cut off the city’s cash supply.
“The city’s leading bankers who had been its principal lenders came to see the mayor and the governor and told them both that nobody would lend the city a nickel under any terms,” Eugene Keilin, who was general counsel for the budget office at the time, said in a recent panel discussion. “The amount of the borrowing had gotten so high, and the explanations for it so vague that the city was not trusted.”
The administration is still paying off some of those loans today.
Dean Fuleihan, first deputy mayor, acknowledged the rarity of de Blasio’s latest request.
“You would only want to do this kind of borrowing in extraordinary times, and that’s exactly what this is,” he said in an interview Wednesday.
De Blasio, during a recent briefing, pointed out that Bloomberg was able to secure a similar ability from Albany after Sept. 11, and Cuomo has gone in the same direction to cope with the state’s finances amid the coronavirus crisis.
“It’s not something we want to use or intend to use in the first instance, but it’s something we need as a last resort if our federal government isn’t there for us,” he said. “If we’re going to maintain basic services here in this city, we need some capacity to borrow.”
Nearly 1 million city residents have already filed for unemployment, Broadway hasn’t put on a show in months and stores and restaurants across the five boroughs remain mostly shuttered.
And while officials in Washington, D.C. fight over an aid package for local governments, the de Blasio administration has about one month to devise a balanced spending plan for the start of the new fiscal year on July 1.
“Their basic strategy is to just borrow and beg their way to next January and hope for a new [federal] administration,” said Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow at the fiscally conservative Manhattan Institute. “But in the long-term, and with the change of the city’s economic well-being, that is not going to get you very far.”
Meanwhile, City Hall is set to pay $1.5 billion in retroactive raises to part of its workforce come October, Gelinas said. She has long criticized the mayor’s practice of allocating future funds for past work, something he did in settling the contracts Bloomberg had allowed to lapse.
Instead of asking for blanket revenue replacement from a divided federal government, Gelinas and the Citizens Budget Commission suggested that the city further cut its expenses.
But the mayor has never embraced budget cuts.
Year after year, he’s asked agencies to voluntarily come up with savings plans, arguing that forced reductions in their spending were a hallmark of the austere Bloomberg years he sought to reverse.
Only a small portion of de Blasio’s recent $2.7 billion savings plan comes from recurring cuts. The largest programmatic loss, an annual summer jobs program for teens, will be back in next year’s budget provided the coronavirus is contained.
And while the city clocked a savings of $50 million on snow removal — since it barely snowed this winter — there is no guarantee that next year’s weather will be as mild.
Only once has the administration tasked its agencies with a mandatory belt-tightening exercise called a “program to eliminate the gap.”
“It involves going through carefully and squeezing out the cellulite that builds up in every department,” Alair Townsend, the budget director for former mayor Ed Koch, said in an interview. “If you don’t force it out, it just grows and grows. The mayor never wanted a PEG program. He thought it sounded like cutting services, and cutting services was not progressive.”
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