{"id":54041,"date":"2020-07-08T14:23:12","date_gmt":"2020-07-08T14:23:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/trump-drops-out-biden-gets-sick-pence-is-fired-what-if-2020-gets-really-crazy\/"},"modified":"2020-07-08T14:23:12","modified_gmt":"2020-07-08T14:23:12","slug":"trump-drops-out-biden-gets-sick-pence-is-fired-what-if-2020-gets-really-crazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/trump-drops-out-biden-gets-sick-pence-is-fired-what-if-2020-gets-really-crazy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump drops out. Biden gets sick. Pence is fired. What if 2020 gets really crazy?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nPresident Donald Trump. | Tasos Katopodis\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Sure, could happen, can\u2019t rule it out: Perhaps the most astounding year in American life in generations, presided over by the most norm-shattering leader in American history, might culminate with a surge of normality. <\/p>\n

What would normal even look like? Maybe a series of sharp but nonetheless civil and substantive debates. Or a close election that nonetheless ends with an unambiguous and uncontested result. <\/p>\n

Even to contemplate these bland scenarios is to highlight their improbability. Based on the record so far of the Trump years \u2014 and especially of the crisis-infused year we are in now \u2014 it borders on crazy to imagine that the balance of 2020 will unfold without becoming even more crazy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Multiple interviews in recent days with influential people in Washington\u2019s political class, including strategists and government veterans in both major parties and figures who have served at high levels in the Trump White House, found most people expecting some sort of dramatic shift of plot in this election year.<\/p>\n

Three factors, in the calculations of these insiders, increase the likelihood of an event that in a conventional era would be highly unlikely:<\/p>\n

\u2022President Donald Trump\u2019s psychology, predisposed to dramatic and unorthodox actions, as he contemplates public polling and news coverage that increasingly describe him as an underdog for reelection.<\/p>\n

\u2022The age of Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 74 and 77, respectively, during a coronavirus pandemic that has disproportionately affected elderly people.<\/p>\n

\u2022The general tumult in which the 2020 election is taking place, because of the pandemic and the vast decline in the domestic and world economies as a result of related shutdowns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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But if there is consensus on the high odds of more disruption, there is hardly uniformity on its precise manifestation. Here are seven scenarios that are something less than predictions but \u2014 by virtue of the experience of the people interviewed \u2014 something more than pure parlor-game speculation.<\/p>\n

Trump finds an exit<\/h3>\n

One veteran Republican operative, close to many in the GOP\u2019s donor class, said in the past couple weeks it’s been stunning the extent to which people who have some association with Trump are speculating he might drop out of the race. \u201cHe doesn\u2019t want to be a loser, and that\u2019s all in jeopardy now,\u201d this strategist said. \u201cIt\u2019s less than 50-50 [Trump would pull himself off ticket] but I\u2019m amazed at the amount of New Yorkers that are talking about this \u2014 his former friends. … They think he\u2019s looking for an excuse to get out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Worth emphasizing: This speculation is not coming from people claiming firsthand knowledge of Trump\u2019s thinking in recent weeks, amid reports that he realizes<\/a> that, on the current trajectory in national and swing-state polls, he is losing.<\/p>\n

By these lights, Trump\u2019s complaints about the alleged \u2014 though factually unsupported \u2014 vulnerability of postal voting to fraud could be a predicate for him saying the election is unfair and so he\u2019s getting out. Or he could come up with a host of other reasons \u2014 he\u2019s achieved his important objectives, he wants time with family, and so on \u2014 for bailing on a showdown. <\/p>\n

In different manifestations of the scenario, the logic is the same: Trump has shown in his business career that he is willing to declare bankruptcy and shed liabilities in order to fight again another day. If remaining in the public eye, and perhaps fashioning a path for his children or some other designated political heir to keep the Trump brand alive in coming years, he might calculate that is better to get out early rather than risk a massive repudiation in November.<\/p>\n

Trump shakes things up<\/h3>\n

The most dramatic version of a shakeup scenario is something that at least in some moods Trump has previously pondered: Dumping Mike Pence.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe would throw Mike Pence in a wood chipper if he needed to,\u201d said one former White House official who frequently interacted with Trump. \u201cI\u2019m still very surprised that he\u2019s on the ticket. If someone walks in there and tells him, \u2018The only way you\u2019re going to pull this out is to put an African American on the ticket or to put a woman on the ticket\u2019 \u2014 if it\u2019s good for Trump, he\u2019ll do it in a second.\u201d<\/p>\n

The problem with this scenario is that it is likely too late to do any good, even if Trump were willing to betray the loyal Pence. It would smack of desperation and endanger the support of religious conservatives who have a marriage of convenience with Trump but genuine devotion to Pence.<\/p>\n

A more conventional shakeup scenario is one that campaigns in trouble often have turned to \u2014 firing the campaign manager or reinforcing that person with some wizened party pooh-bah \u2014 almost never to good effect.<\/p>\n

Trump circles in recent days have been abuzz with speculation that Trump\u2019s confidence in campaign manager Brad Parscale is shaken or even that he is second-guessing son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner. Illustrative of the chatter is gossip that veteran George W. Bush strategist Karl Rove might be taking on an enhanced role. Rove has said he consults episodically with Parscale, but people familiar with his thinking regard it as far-fetched that he would take on a more expansive role.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Mitch McConnell cuts his losses<\/h3>\n

For most of the Trump years, most Republicans who once disdained Trump have become so acquiescent to him that it may be easy to forget: The president is far from being the only ruthlessly transactional politician in the capital.<\/p>\n

One indicator to watch if the president remains in parlous political health is whether leading Republicans \u2014 many of whom have long resented Trump \u2014 perceive an incentive in distancing themselves from him as the election nears. <\/p>\n

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, for instance, shares an interest in having Trump stay president in order to install conservative judges. But if he perceives Trump is a loser who endangers the GOP\u2019s Senate majority, their interests could violently collide. \u201cAt the end of the day, the Senate majority leader wants to be the Senate majority leader,\u201d said another former senior White House official. “He cares about the Senate, he cares about maintaining that majority, so if that means walking away from Trump at some point, he absolutely will.\u201d<\/p>\n

A September surprise<\/h3>\n

In days past, journalists and campaign operatives would entertain themselves with fantasies of an \u201cOctober Surprise\u201d \u2014 some news big enough to change perceptions of candidates or the stakes involved in choosing one over the other just before the November election.<\/p>\n

The contemporary variant of that would have to be a September surprise in order to have maximum effect. Many states allow early voting to begin more than six weeks before Nov. 3, Election Day.<\/p>\n

Among the candidates most frequently mentioned for a narrative-jolting event: A Supreme Court vacancy in the fall. \u201cI couldn\u2019t even fathom the chaos a [high court] vacancy could bring to this race,\u201d said one GOP operative close to the Trump campaign. \u201cMcConnell\u2019s going to go forward, the president\u2019s going to go forward and the left is going to go crazy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other scenarios we heard: Trump baits Twitter with tweets so inflammatory that the social media giant kicks him off the platform. Either big advances or big setbacks in the effort to contain Covid-19. Seismic endorsements, such as Anthony Fauci, the government\u2019s top infectious disease expert, resigning from the executive branch and endorsing Biden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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A high temperature and a dry cough<\/h3>\n

No need to get too macabre or dwell on this at length. It\u2019s just a statement of the obvious that if either Trump or Biden were your aging parent in the midst of a pandemic, you would likely urge them to stay home and avoid any unnecessary human contact. You would not urge people creeping close to the average life expectancy for American men (78.5 years) to run for president, even if they were careful about wearing masks (as Biden apparently is and Trump self-evidently is not).<\/p>\n

A rough transition<\/h3>\n

We should note that the none of the Washington veterans we spoke with is seriously contemplating a constitutional crisis in which Trump contests the election and refuses to leave power, even though this scenario is sometimes invoked on social media and elsewhere. <\/p>\n

But multiple sources do find it plausible if Trump loses he might disparage the results as tainted by fraud or other irregularities. A former White House official who worked closely with Trump said, \u201cThat will be his rationale and for the rest of his life, we\u2019ll never hear anything but, \u2018It was stolen.\u2019 … He can\u2019t admit that he lost, so how he\u2019ll comfort himself or justify it is that it was stolen.\u201d<\/p>\n

One scenario to watch closely if Trump decides to leave the race or loses it: his use of pardon power to insulate allies and family members from any post-presidency legal probes. One point of constitutional ambiguity: Can a president pardon himself? <\/p>\n

George Conway, husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway and who often publicly lashes Trump, predicted that if Trump loses he will skip the inaugural ceremonies: \u201cI can\u2019t imagine him attending Joe Biden\u2019s inauguration because it would be to him the ultimate humiliation. He would rather blame other people, claim that the election was stolen from him but he\u2019s [departing voluntarily] because he\u2019s a good guy [but in protest] he will not attend the inauguration.”<\/p>\n

Trump triples down<\/h3>\n

In some sense, this is the wild scenario that is already underway. Under pressure, Trump is relying on rhetorical themes that have worked for him before \u2014 just doing so even more loudly. His July Fourth remarks denouncing a \u201cnew far-left fascism\u201d \u2014 and tweet Monday knocking NASCAR for banning the Confederate flag \u2014 are illustrative.<\/p>\n

In some ways, his reelection struggles are offering us a glimpse of an unfamiliar Trump. A business associate who worked with Trump during his early 1990s bankruptcies said his signature was never letting anyone see him sweat.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would have been looking for the nearest building to jump off of, and he just remained upbeat all of the time,\u201d Steve Bollenbach, a lender-mandated financial fixer who helped Trump avoid personal bankruptcy and lasting business humiliation, told Trump biographer Tim O\u2019Brien. \u201cI never suspected that he lost a moment\u2019s sleep.\u201d<\/p>\n

That recollection is quite different than the image of Trump returning from a disappointing crowd at last month\u2019s rally in Tulsa Okla., when he was photographed tieless, slumped and demoralized, as he departed Marine One. <\/p>\n

And POLITICO\u2019s Michael Kruse has written that Trump usually returns to old patterns, in particular the fighting ethos he learned from lawyer and Joseph McCarthy prot\u00e9g\u00e9 Roy Cohn.<\/a> \u201cDeflect and distract,\u201d Kruse summarized, \u201cnever give in, never admit fault, lie and attack, lie and attack, publicity no matter what, win no matter what, all underpinned by a deep, prove-me-wrong belief in the power of chaos and fear.\u201d<\/p>\n

That could make for an interesting second half of 2020.
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