{"id":27753,"date":"2020-05-08T13:25:40","date_gmt":"2020-05-08T13:25:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/"},"modified":"2020-05-08T13:25:40","modified_gmt":"2020-05-08T13:25:40","slug":"this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/","title":{"rendered":"This Is the Future of the Pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"<article id=\"story\">\n<div>\n<header>\n<p id=\"article-summary\">Covid-19 isn\u2019t going away soon. Two recent studies mapped out the possible shapes of its trajectory.<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure aria-label=\"media\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/08\/science\/08VIRUS-WAVES1\/08VIRUS-WAVES1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&#038;auto=webp\" itemprop=\"associatedMedia\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" role=\"group\">\n<div><picture><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" ><\/source><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" ><\/source><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" ><\/source><img alt=\"Markings at Gare du Nord train station in Paris marking safe social distances on Wednesday.\" decoding=\"async\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/08\/science\/08VIRUS-WAVES1\/08VIRUS-WAVES1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&#038;auto=webp&#038;disable=upscale\" itemprop=\"url\"  src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/08\/science\/08VIRUS-WAVES1\/08VIRUS-WAVES1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&#038;auto=webp&#038;disable=upscale\" ><\/img><\/picture><\/div><figcaption itemprop=\"caption description\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">Markings at Gare du Nord train station in Paris marking safe social distances on Wednesday.<\/span><span itemprop=\"copyrightHolder\"><span>Credit&#8230;<\/span><span><span>Ian Langsdon\/EPA, via Shutterstock<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li><time datetime=\"2020-05-08T05:00:20-04:00\">May 8, 2020, <span>5:00 a.m. ET<\/span><\/time><\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<section itemprop=\"articleBody\" name=\"articleBody\">\n<div>\n<p>By now we know \u2014 contrary to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/06\/business\/coronavirus-white-house-economists.html\" title=\"\">false predictions <\/a>\u2014 that the novel coronavirus will be with us for a rather long time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cExactly how long remains to be seen,\u201d said Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard\u2019s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be a matter of managing it over months to a couple of years. It\u2019s not a matter of getting past the peak, as some people seem to believe.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>A single round of social distancing \u2014 closing schools and workplaces, limiting the sizes of gatherings, lockdowns of varying intensities and durations \u2014 will not be sufficient in the long term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>In the interest of managing our expectations and governing ourselves accordingly, it might be helpful, for our pandemic state of mind, to envision this predicament \u2014 existentially, at least \u2014 as a soliton wave: a wave that just keeps rolling and rolling, carrying on under its own power for a great distance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The Scottish engineer and naval architect John Scott Russell first spotted a soliton in 1834 as it traveled along the Union Canal. He followed on horseback and, as he wrote in his \u201cReport on Waves,\u201d overtook it rolling along at about eight miles an hour, at thirty feet long and a foot or so in height. \u201cIts height gradually diminished, and after a chase of one or two miles I lost it in the windings of the channel.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section data-id=\"100000007127127\" id=\"virus-soliton\"><\/section>\n<div>\n<p>The pandemic wave, similarly, will be with us for the foreseeable future before it diminishes. But, depending on one\u2019s geographic location and the policies in place, it will exhibit variegated dimensions and dynamics traveling through time and space.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cThere is an analogy between weather forecasting and disease modeling,\u201d Dr. Lipsitch said. Both, he noted, are simple mathematical descriptions of how a system works: drawing upon physics and chemistry in the case of meteorology; and on behavior, virology and epidemiology in the case of infectious-disease modeling. Of course, he said, \u201cwe can\u2019t change the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=NZ3Ck43m_ZY\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">weather<\/a>.\u201d But we can change the course of the pandemic \u2014 with our behavior, by balancing and coordinating psychological, sociological, economic and political factors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Dr. Lipsitch is a co-author of two recent analyses \u2014 one from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cidrap.umn.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/public\/downloads\/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy<\/a> at the University of Minnesota, the other from the Chan School published in <a href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/04\/24\/science.abb5793\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">Science<\/a> \u2014 that describe a variety of shapes the pandemic wave might take in the coming months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The Minnesota study describes three possibilities:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section data-id=\"100000007127130\" id=\"virus-three-waves\">\n<div data-sourceid=\"100000007127130\">\n<div id=\"g-waves-box\">\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"5.357\" data-min-width=\"900\" id=\"g-waves-900\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-three-waves\/f5a7a8cc513d7985ace88a3f14885829c71c4c60\/waves-900.png\" id=\"g-waves-900-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai0-1\">\n<p>POSSIBLE SCENARIO 1<\/p>\n<p>Peaks and Valleys<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"3.659\" data-max-width=\"899\" data-min-width=\"600\" id=\"g-waves-600\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-three-waves\/f5a7a8cc513d7985ace88a3f14885829c71c4c60\/waves-600.png\" id=\"g-waves-600-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-1\">\n<p>POSSIBLE SCENARIO 1<\/p>\n<p>Peaks and Valleys<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"0.695\" data-max-width=\"599\" data-min-width=\"335\" id=\"g-waves-335\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-three-waves\/f5a7a8cc513d7985ace88a3f14885829c71c4c60\/waves-335.png\" id=\"g-waves-335-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai2-1\">\n<p>POSSIBLE SCENARIO 1<\/p>\n<p>Peaks and Valleys<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"0.645\" data-max-width=\"334\" data-min-width=\"0\" id=\"g-waves-300\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-three-waves\/f5a7a8cc513d7985ace88a3f14885829c71c4c60\/waves-300.png\" id=\"g-waves-300-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai3-1\">\n<p>POSSIBLE SCENARIO 1<\/p>\n<p>Peaks and Valleys<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div>\n<p>Scenario No. 1 depicts an initial wave of cases \u2014 the current one \u2014 followed by a consistently bumpy ride of \u201cpeaks and valleys\u201d that will gradually diminish over a year or two.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Scenario No. 2 supposes that the current wave will be followed by a larger \u201cfall peak,\u201d or perhaps a winter peak, with subsequent smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Scenario No. 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a \u201cslow burn\u201d with less-pronounced ups and downs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/04\/30\/opinion\/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html\" title=\"\">vaccine<\/a>), \u201cwe must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>In the Science paper, the Harvard team \u2014 infectious-disease epidemiologist Yonatan Grad, his postdoctoral fellow Stephen Kissler, Dr. Lipsitch, his doctoral student Christine Tedijanto and their colleague Edward Goldstein \u2014 took a closer look at various scenarios by simulating the transmission dynamics using the latest Covid-19 data and data from related viruses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The authors conveyed the results in a series of graphs \u2014 composed by Dr. Kissler and Ms. Tedijanto \u2014 that project a similarly wavy future characterized by peaks and valleys.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>One figure from the paper, reinterpreted below, depicts possible scenarios (the details would differ geographically) and shows the red trajectory of Covid-19 infections in response to \u201cintermittent social distancing\u201d regimes represented by the blue bands.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section data-id=\"100000007127132\" id=\"virus-wave-6a\">\n<div data-sourceid=\"100000007127132\">\n<div id=\"g-6A-box\">\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"1.585\" data-min-width=\"600\" id=\"g-6A-900\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-wave-6a\/5d421c0a55448c3f034d6761ec69adf3827f1a9f\/6A-900.png\" id=\"g-6A-900-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<p>Coronavirus infections<span> pe<\/span><span>r<\/span><span>10,000 population<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Threshold to begin social distancing<\/p>\n<p>50<\/p>\n<p>25<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai0-11\">\n<p>PERIODS <\/p>\n<p>OF SOCIAL<\/p>\n<p>DISTANCING<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span>Cumulative progress<\/span> toward herd immunity<\/p>\n<p>55% threshold for herd immunity<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"0.797\" data-max-width=\"599\" data-min-width=\"0\" id=\"g-6A-335\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-wave-6a\/5d421c0a55448c3f034d6761ec69adf3827f1a9f\/6A-335.png\" id=\"g-6A-335-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-1\">\n<p>Coronavirus infections<\/p>\n<p>pe<span>r<\/span>10,000 population<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-2\">\n<p>Threshold to begin<\/p>\n<p>social distancing<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>50<\/p>\n<p>25<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-12\">\n<p>Cumulative progress<\/p>\n<p>toward herd immunity<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-13\">\n<p>55% threshold for<\/p>\n<p>herd immunity<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div>\n<p>Social distancing is turned \u201con\u201d when the number of Covid-19 cases reaches a certain prevalence in the population \u2014 for instance, 35 cases per 10,000, although the thresholds would be set locally). It is turned \u201coff\u201d when cases drop to a lower threshold, perhaps 5 cases per 10,000. Because critical cases that require hospitalization lag behind the general prevalence, this strategy aims to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>The green graph represents the corresponding, if very gradual, increase in population immunity.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe \u2018herd immunity threshold\u2019 in the model is 55 percent of the population, or the level of immunity that would be needed for the disease to stop spreading in the population without other measures,\u201d Dr. Kissler said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Another iteration shows the effects of seasonality \u2014 a slower spread of the virus during warmer months. Theoretically, seasonal effects allow for larger intervals between periods of social distancing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section data-id=\"100000007127148\" id=\"virus-wave-6b\">\n<div data-sourceid=\"100000007127148\">\n<div id=\"g-6B-box\">\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"1.594\" data-min-width=\"600\" id=\"g-6B-900\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-wave-6b\/089f4239ec72da3a08f78a4ab7b3371815f50490\/6B-900.png\" id=\"g-6B-900-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai0-1\">\n<p>Coronavirus infections<\/p>\n<p>pe<span>r<\/span>10,000 population, with seasonality<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>50<\/p>\n<p>25<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p><span>Cumulative progress<\/span> toward herd immunity<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"0.89\" data-max-width=\"599\" data-min-width=\"0\" id=\"g-6B-335\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-wave-6b\/089f4239ec72da3a08f78a4ab7b3371815f50490\/6B-335.png\" id=\"g-6B-335-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-1\">\n<p>Coronavirus infections<\/p>\n<p>pe<span>r<\/span>10,000 population, with seasonality<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>50<\/p>\n<p>25<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-11\">\n<p>Cumulative progress<\/p>\n<p>toward herd immunity<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div>\n<p>This year, however, the seasonal effects will likely be minimal, since a large proportion of the population will still be susceptible to the virus come summer. And there are other unknowns, since the underlying mechanisms of seasonality \u2014 such as temperature, humidity and school schedules \u2014 have been studied for some respiratory infections, like influenza, but not for coronaviruses. So, alas, we cannot depend on seasonality alone to stave off another outbreak over the coming summer months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Yet another scenario takes into account not only seasonality but also a doubling of the critical-care capacity in hospitals. This, in turn, allows for social distancing to kick in at a higher threshold \u2014 say, at a prevalence of 70 cases per 10,000 \u2014 and for even longer breaks between social distancing periods:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section data-id=\"100000007127150\" id=\"virus-wave-6d\">\n<div data-sourceid=\"100000007127150\">\n<div id=\"g-6D-box\">\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"1.356\" data-min-width=\"600\" id=\"g-6D-900\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-wave-6d\/8580001177b432193684246a3e00602408bd05b0\/6D-900.png\" id=\"g-6D-900-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai0-1\">\n<p>Coronavirus infections<span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>pe<span>r<\/span>10,000 people, with seasonality and a doubling of critical care capacity<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>75<\/p>\n<p>50<\/p>\n<p>25<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p><span>Cumulative progress <\/span>toward herd immunity<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-aspect-ratio=\"0.721\" data-max-width=\"599\" data-min-width=\"0\" id=\"g-6D-335\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/newsgraphics\/2020\/05\/07\/virus-wave-6d\/8580001177b432193684246a3e00602408bd05b0\/6D-335.png\" id=\"g-6D-335-img\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhCgAKAIAAAB8fHwAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAKAAoAAAIIhI+py+0PYysAOw==\"><\/img><\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-1\">\n<p>Coronavirus infections<\/p>\n<p>pe<span>r<\/span>10,000 people, with seasonality<\/p>\n<p>and a doubling of critical care capacity<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>75<\/p>\n<p>50<\/p>\n<p>25<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<div id=\"g-ai1-12\">\n<p>Cumulative progress<\/p>\n<p>toward herd immunity<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<p>July<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div>\n<p>What is clear overall is that a one-time social distancing effort will not be sufficient to control the epidemic in the long term, and that it will take a long time to reach herd immunity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cThis is because when we are successful in doing social distancing \u2014 so that we don\u2019t overwhelm the health care system \u2014 fewer people get the infection, which is exactly the goal,\u201d said Ms. Tedijanto. \u201cBut if infection leads to immunity, successful social distancing also means that more people remain susceptible to the disease. As a result, once we lift the social distancing measures, the virus will quite possibly spread again as easily as it did before the lockdowns.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>So, lacking a vaccine, our pandemic state of mind may persist well into 2021 or 2022 \u2014 which surprised even the experts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cWe anticipated a prolonged period of social distancing would be necessary, but didn\u2019t initially realize that it could be this long,\u201d Dr. Kissler said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"\" id=\"NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION\">\n<section id=\"styln-faq-coronavirus\">\n<div>\n<div id=\"g-inlineguide-id\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<div id=\"truncate-content\">\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Updated April 11, 2020<\/p>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What should I do if I feel sick?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/well\/what-if-i-have-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">If you\u2019ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have,<\/a> and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>When will this end?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>This is a difficult question, because a lot depends on<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/03\/20\/us\/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\"> how well the virus is contained<\/a>. A better question might be: \u201cHow will we know when to reopen the country?\u201d In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf\">an American Enterprise Institute report<\/a>, Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/06\/upshot\/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">staked out four goal posts for recovery<\/a>: Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care; the state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms; the state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts; and there must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>How can I help?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The Times Neediest Cases Fund has started a special campaign to help those who have been affected, which accepts <a href=\"https:\/\/charity.gofundme.com\/o\/en\/campaign\/neediest-cases-fund-covid-relief\">donations here<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.charitynavigator.org\/index.cfm?bay=content.view&#038;cpid=7779\">Charity Navigator<\/a>, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redcrossblood.org\/donate-blood\/dlp\/coronavirus--covid-19--and-blood-donation.html\">American Red Cross<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/wck.org\/\">World Central Kitchen<\/a> has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities. More than 30,000 coronavirus-related <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gofundme.com\/c\/act\/covid19\">GoFundMe fund-raisers<\/a> have started in the past few weeks. (The sheer number of fund-raisers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/26\/style\/gofundme-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">means more of them are likely to fail <\/a>to meet their goal, though.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Should I wear a mask?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The C.D.C. has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/03\/world\/coronavirus-news-updates.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">recommended<\/a> that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/31\/health\/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\"> new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms<\/a>. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don\u2019t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don\u2019t replace hand washing and social distancing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>How do I get tested?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>If you\u2019re sick and you think you\u2019ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/well\/what-if-i-have-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. <\/a>They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there\u2019s a chance \u2014 because of a lack of testing kits or because you\u2019re asymptomatic, for instance \u2014 you won\u2019t be able to get tested.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>How does coronavirus spread?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>It seems to spread <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/03\/22\/world\/coronavirus-spread.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">very easily from person to person,<\/a> especially in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can be carried on tiny respiratory droplets that fall as they are coughed or sneezed out. It may also be transmitted when we touch a contaminated surface and then touch our face.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Is there a vaccine yet?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>No. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/19\/us\/politics\/coronavirus-vaccine-competition.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">Clinical trials are underway<\/a> in the United States, China and Europe. But American officials and pharmaceutical executives have said that a vaccine remains at least 12 to 18 months away.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What makes this outbreak so different?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Unlike the flu, there is no known treatment or vaccine, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/what-is-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">little is known about this particular virus so far.<\/a> It seems to be more lethal than the flu, but the numbers are still uncertain. And it hits the elderly and those with underlying conditions \u2014 not just those with respiratory diseases \u2014 particularly hard.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What if somebody in my family gets sick?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>If the family member doesn\u2019t need hospitalization and can be cared for at home, you should help him or her with basic needs and monitor the symptoms, while also keeping as much distance as possible, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/well\/what-if-i-have-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">according to guidelines issued by the C.D.C.<\/a> If there\u2019s space, the sick family member should stay in a separate room and use a separate bathroom. If masks are available, both the sick person and the caregiver should wear them when the caregiver enters the room. Make sure not to share any dishes or other household items and to regularly clean surfaces like counters, doorknobs, toilets and tables. Don\u2019t forget to wash your hands frequently.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Should I stock up on groceries?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Plan two weeks of meals if possible. But people should not hoard food or supplies. Despite the empty shelves, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/15\/business\/coronavirus-food-shortages.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">the supply chain remains strong.<\/a> And remember to wipe the handle of the grocery cart with a disinfecting wipe and wash your hands as soon as you get home.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Can I go to the park?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don\u2019t live in your home. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/19\/well\/move\/coronavirus-covid-exercise-outdoors-infection-fitness.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Should I pull my money from the markets?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/02\/26\/your-money\/stock-market-changes-virus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">That\u2019s not a good idea.<\/a> Even if you\u2019re retired, having a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds so that your money keeps up with inflation, or even grows, makes sense. But retirees may want to think about having enough cash set aside for a year\u2019s worth of living expenses and big payments needed over the next five years.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What should I do with my 401(k)?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Watching your balance go up and down can be scary. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/07\/your-money\/target-date-funds-stock-market.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storyline_faq\">You may be wondering if you should decrease your contributions \u2014 don\u2019t!<\/a> If your employer matches any part of your contributions, make sure you\u2019re at least saving as much as you can to get that \u201cfree money.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<\/hr><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/08\/health\/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Covid-19 isn\u2019t going away soon. Two recent studies mapped out the possible shapes of its trajectory.Markings at Gare du Nord train station in Paris marking safe social distances on Wednesday.Credit&#8230;Ian Langsdon\/EPA, via ShutterstockMay 8, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ETBy now we know \u2014 contrary to false predictions \u2014 that the novel coronavirus will be with us&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27754,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[1860,171],"class_list":{"0":"post-27753","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-health","8":"tag-future","9":"tag-pandemic"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>This Is the Future of the Pandemic - Virus Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This Is the Future of the Pandemic - Virus Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Covid-19 isn\u2019t going away soon. Two recent studies mapped out the possible shapes of its trajectory.Markings at Gare du Nord train station in Paris marking safe social distances on Wednesday.Credit...Ian Langsdon\/EPA, via ShutterstockMay 8, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ETBy now we know \u2014 contrary to false predictions \u2014 that the novel coronavirus will be with us&hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Virus Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-05-08T13:25:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.us-west-1.wasabisys.com\/virusreports\/2020\/05\/27753\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1050\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"549\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/virusreports.net\/#\/schema\/person\/b4d9935a5c761848b065a92393ecc319\"},\"headline\":\"This Is the Future of the Pandemic\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-08T13:25:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/\"},\"wordCount\":2241,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/virusreports.net\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/s3.us-west-1.wasabisys.com\/virusreports\/2020\/05\/27753\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"future\",\"pandemic\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Health\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/this-is-the-future-of-the-pandemic\/\",\"name\":\"This Is the Future of the Pandemic - 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