As California closed in on an ignominious milestone — preparing to pass New York as the state with the most coronavirus cases in the nation — one of the state’s leading coronavirus experts said it could be more than a month before cases begin to significantly decrease.
During a news conference Tuesday, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said that it might be four to five weeks after Gov. Gavin Newsom’s tightening of rules last Monday before cases, hospitalizations and deaths start to steadily decline.
“We’ve learned that a two-to-three week period may not be long enough,” he said. “It may take up to three, four, even five weeks to feel the full impact of some of those changes.”
The warning came on a day California topped 400,000 COVID-19 cases, closing in on New York, which has reported just over 408,000 cases but has largely flattened its curve of infections after suffering the worst of the pandemic in late March and April.
In recent weeks, the pandemic has worsened in California. Over the past 14 days, the number of deaths is up 20% from the prior two weeks, and the number of positive cases statewide is up 44%. The total number of people who were hospitalized with COVID-19 on Monday was 7,091 — a 25% increase from two weeks earlier.
Last Monday, in response to the surge, Newsom ordered the statewide closure of all bars, indoor restaurants, movie theaters and other previously reopened businesses across California, and further tightened restrictions in 34 counties on the state’s watch list. In those counties, gyms, indoor hair salons, shopping malls and places of worship are also closed.
Nearly 60 years ago, on Dec. 31, 1962, former California Gov. Pat Brown declared a statewide holiday when California passed New York as America’s most populous state, characterizing the event as a shift westward of power and influence.
Tuesday, however, the comparison between the Golden State and the Empire State was less a cause for celebration.
“I think there was a misjudgment by the state in terms of opening things up too quickly,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of public health at UC Berkeley. “It’s easy to say in retrospect, but I think Newsom turned the dial up too fast, too quickly. Many of us also expected Californians to behave more responsibly than they have. Those two factors have led us to where we are today. We have to look at ourselves.”
Swartzberg noted that California was the first state to impose a shelter-in-place law, largely credited with slowing the spread of the virus here in March and April. But reopening bars and other indoor facilities — which are now closed again — allowed the pandemic to rally back.
Also, in part because of mixed messages from the Trump administration on wearing masks, he noted, it’s still difficult to convince many people around the state of the severity of the crisis, even as countries in Europe have seen huge drops in deaths following well-coordinated national campaigns. In some California communities, by contrast, including Orange County, protesters have driven public health officials from their jobs with death threats.
“The fact we let ourselves lose ground makes me sad,” he said.
Newsom’s new orders should help bend the curve again, Swartzberg noted, but in the end progress will be measured by how vigilant the public is.
“My wife and I take a walk every day,” he said. “On a good day we may see 40% of the people wearing masks.”
Despite the number of cases, New York has experienced a more severe pandemic than California has, at least so far.
Four times as many people have died in New York from COVID-19 than in California: 32,218 compared with 7,755.
Further, New York state’s population of 19.5 million is half of California’s population. As a result, New York has a COVID-19 death rate of 166 people per 100,000, while California’s death rate is a much smaller 20 per 100,000.
But cases and deaths are rising faster now in California than in New York. Over the past week, only Florida and Texas have seen more total deaths and cases than California, with New York ranking 11th.
Fully 77% of California’s deaths have occurred in five of the state’s 58 counties, all in Southern California: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange. By contrast the combined death total for all nine Bay Area counties, 697 people, is 9% of the statewide total.
Ghaly said it was not unexpected that California would pass New York in total cases.
“We’re the largest state in the nation, we have a north-south geography that goes well beyond Vermont to Virginia,” he said.
“I look at every day as an opportunity to do more and do better with our response to COVID-19. At the end, I really expect and hope that California is going to be the state that adapted the most, learned the most, prepared the best, and that we are going to really reduce its impact.”
Because of good preparation early, California avoided the large spikes seen in other places and maintained hospital capacity and ICU levels, he noted.
However, if cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise — especially in counties that have become regulars on the watch list — the state will further tighten restrictions and delay reopening plans, he and Newsom have said.
“Unfortunately, our reopening has been treated as a green light by many to resume normal life,” Ghaly said, adding “If the data trends turn to such a place where we aren’t confident we will get there, there will be potential for further dimming in parts of the state.”
