{"id":29201,"date":"2020-05-11T19:21:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T19:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/as-states-rush-to-reopen-scientists-fear-a-coronavirus-comeback\/"},"modified":"2020-05-11T19:21:06","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T19:21:06","slug":"as-states-rush-to-reopen-scientists-fear-a-coronavirus-comeback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/as-states-rush-to-reopen-scientists-fear-a-coronavirus-comeback\/","title":{"rendered":"As States Rush to Reopen, Scientists Fear a Coronavirus Comeback"},"content":{"rendered":"<article id=\"story\">\n<div>\n<header>\n<p id=\"article-summary\">Officials are under pressure to restart the economy, but many states are moving too quickly, researchers say. The costs may be measured in lost lives.<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure aria-label=\"media\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/00VIRUS-NEXTWAVE1\/merlin_172237452_112f113f-f1d2-462f-8f6a-a0d3a0c2fca1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&#038;auto=webp\" itemprop=\"associatedMedia\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" role=\"group\">\n<div><picture><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" ><\/source><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" ><\/source><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" ><\/source><img alt=\"A field hospital in Central Park last month. Though hospitalizations and deaths due to the coronavirus are declining, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has refused to set a date for easing restrictions in all parts of the state.\" decoding=\"async\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/00VIRUS-NEXTWAVE1\/merlin_172237452_112f113f-f1d2-462f-8f6a-a0d3a0c2fca1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&#038;auto=webp&#038;disable=upscale\" itemprop=\"url\"  src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/00VIRUS-NEXTWAVE1\/merlin_172237452_112f113f-f1d2-462f-8f6a-a0d3a0c2fca1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&#038;auto=webp&#038;disable=upscale\" ><\/img><\/picture><\/div><figcaption itemprop=\"caption description\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">A field hospital in Central Park last month. Though hospitalizations and deaths due to the coronavirus are declining, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has refused to set a date for easing restrictions in all parts of the state.<\/span><span itemprop=\"copyrightHolder\"><span>Credit&#8230;<\/span><span><span>Misha Friedman for The New York Times<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/donald-g-mcneil-jr\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Donald G. McNeil Jr.\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/13\/multimedia\/author-donald-g-mcneil-jr\/author-donald-g-mcneil-jr-thumbLarge-v4.png\" title=\"Donald G. McNeil Jr.\"><\/img><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><time datetime=\"2020-05-11T13:15:29-04:00\">May 11, 2020<\/time><time datetime=\"2020-05-11T13:47:03-04:00\">Updated <span>1:47 p.m. ET<\/span><\/time><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<section itemprop=\"articleBody\" name=\"articleBody\">\n<div>\n<p>Millions of working people and small-business owners who cannot earn money while sheltering at home are facing economic ruin. So dozens of states, seeking to ease the pain, are coming out of lockdown.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Most have not met even minimal criteria for doing so safely, and some are reopening even as coronavirus cases rise, inviting disaster. The much-feared \u201csecond wave\u201d of infection may not wait until fall, many scientists say, and instead may become a storm of wavelets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/08\/health\/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html\" title=\"\">breaking unpredictably across the country<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The reopenings will proceed nonetheless. The question now, scientists say, is whether the nation can minimize the damage by intelligently adopting new tactics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.preprints.org\/manuscript\/202004.0203\/v1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">Evidence is mounting<\/a> that masks \u2014 if worn in public places, by everyone \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/masks4all.co\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">are far more effective<\/a> at stopping transmission <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@tomaspueyo\/coronavirus-the-basic-dance-steps-everybody-can-follow-b3d216daa343\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">than was previously realized<\/a>. Across the nation, testing remains wholly inadequate, but home-use nasal swabs and saliva tests are on the way that may provide a clearer picture of where the virus is.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Americans are lining up for antibody tests that may reveal who has some immunity, perhaps opening paths back to normal life for them. Early (but still controversial) surveys suggest that more Americans may carry antibodies than initially thought.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>But while it may still be possible to blunt the impact of the reopenings, the nation is finding even this goal difficult.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>As the weather warms, Americans are already struggling to stay at home or remain six feet apart on crowded beaches, hiking trails and park playgrounds. Every crowd <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/31\/health\/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html\" title=\"\">may have some silent carriers<\/a> of the virus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Outside New York, California and a few other states, many Americans refuse to wear masks, and governors and mayors have waffled over whether to order them to. The dispute has even led to threats and <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/coronavirus-live-updates-tsa-require-employees-wear-facial\/story?id=70569418\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">a killing<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Fifty brands of antibody tests are available, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/24\/health\/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html\" title=\"\">many are inaccurate<\/a>. Many states are moving too quickly for employers and retailers to make environments safe. And the lockdowns have become entwined in partisan politics, with some libertarian extremists, gun-rights advocates and anti-vaccine activists painting them as an infringement of personal freedoms.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the task force\u2019s chief medical adviser, has said he expects cases to spike in closed environments like nursing homes, prisons and factories.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not reopening based on science,\u201d said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the C.D.C. in the Obama administration. \u201cWe\u2019re reopening based on politics, ideology and public pressure. And I think it\u2019s going to end badly.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2 id=\"link-b138cd7\">All Quiet, at First<\/h2>\n<p>The effects of the reopenings will not be immediately apparent, and in the absence of widespread testing, it will be hard to know where the country stands in the fight against the virus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>It takes two or three weeks for the newly infected who become severely ill to need hospitalization. An initial calm may encourage more Americans to drop their guard or more governors to ease restrictions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cI do worry that people will stay home enough in the states that open earliest so that we don\u2019t immediately see the second wave, and then other states will draw the wrong lessons,\u201d said Dr. Leana Wen, a former health commissioner of Baltimore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Social distancing has proved effective at interrupting viral transmission in places where it was embraced. But now even formerly terrified New Yorkers, living at the center of the nation\u2019s outbreak, are clearly wearying of it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Central Park, which was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/04\/01\/photos-of-new-york-city-quieted-by-coronavirus.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">so quiet in late March<\/a> that the birdsong was startlingly loud, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/central-park-still-crowded-people-192352516.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">is often crowded<\/a> with joggers, strollers and cyclists. Avenues that were ghostly canyons now have far more cars, Mayor Bill de Blasio<strong><em> <\/em><\/strong>has complained,<strong><em> <\/em><\/strong>and steady traffic has returned to some local highways.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Nationwide, there are still about 25,000 new confirmed cases a day of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Most are probably within families, experts said, or among health workers and emergency personnel exposed on the job.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>To keep the toll from rising, some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/ford-rawsonville-plant-michigan-ventilator-factory\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">factories making essential goods<\/a>, like ventilators, have placed workstations six feet apart and made temperature checks and masks mandatory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.union-bulletin.com\/news\/health_fitness\/coronavirus\/health-officials-require-more-of-tyson-fresh-meats\/article_4b424025-2108-5157-ace2-e770dd172cf7.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">Food plants<\/a> are installing plastic barriers between workers and on cafeteria tables, requiring masks, checking symptoms at entrances and doing more cleaning. Most nursing homes no longer accept visitors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>As well intentioned as these stopgap measures may be, they are part of a headlong rush back to \u201cnormal life\u201d that few experts condone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Most reopening criteria, including the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/openingamerica\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">White House\u2019s relatively vague guidelines<\/a>, say that at a minimum a state should have 14 days of declining cases before it even considers reopening. Almost no state reopening now has met that low standard.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Virtually all guidelines emphasize comprehensive testing and systematic contact tracing.<\/p>\n<p>Testing is a sore point. Virtually everyone but Mr. Trump says there are too few tests, but everyone disagrees about how many are needed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>At a minimum, a state must do enough random testing \u2014 including among people with no symptoms \u2014 to detect a surge of cases anywhere within its borders. Otherwise, the first unmistakable sign that something is wrong will be the wail of sirens as oxygen-starved patients are taken to a local emergency room.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>By then, it may be too late to stop a flood of patients over the next week that will overwhelm that hospital.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>In rural America \u2014 even in relatively wealthy states like Texas \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/texas-reopening-rural-covid-19-spread-60-minutes-2020-05-03\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">financially struggling hospitals<\/a> often have few ventilators, and ambulances must drive long distances.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure aria-label=\"media\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/05VIRUS-NEXTWAVE2\/merlin_172136592_ce5265d7-8e68-4212-ae8a-182ac4603348-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&#038;auto=webp\" itemprop=\"associatedMedia\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" role=\"group\">\n<div>\n<p><span>Image<\/span><\/p>\n<picture><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" ><\/source><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" ><\/source><source media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" ><\/source><img alt=\"Protesters in Salem, Ore., gathered at the Capitol this month to demand that Gov. Kate Brown reopen the state.\" decoding=\"async\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/05VIRUS-NEXTWAVE2\/merlin_172136592_ce5265d7-8e68-4212-ae8a-182ac4603348-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&#038;auto=webp&#038;disable=upscale\" itemprop=\"url\"  src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/05VIRUS-NEXTWAVE2\/merlin_172136592_ce5265d7-8e68-4212-ae8a-182ac4603348-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&#038;auto=webp&#038;disable=upscale\" ><\/img><\/picture><\/div><figcaption itemprop=\"caption description\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">Protesters in Salem, Ore., gathered at the Capitol this month to demand that Gov. Kate Brown reopen the state.<\/span><span itemprop=\"copyrightHolder\"><span>Credit&#8230;<\/span><span>Terray Sylvester\/Getty Images<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>When hospitals run short on supplies or ambulances fail to promptly reach victims of pneumonia, heart attacks, strokes or car accidents, many lives may be lost, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/04\/28\/us\/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html\" title=\"\">happened in New York<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>New York now tests far more citizens than any other state does \u2014 twice as many per capita as California, and five times as many as Texas. To spot outbreaks early, the Harvard model advocates scaling up, to 20 million tests a day nationwide.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Adm. Brett P. Giroir, the coronavirus task force\u2019s chief of testing strategy, recently <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/5828843\/trump-coronavirus-testing-giroir\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">said there was \u201cabsolutely no way on earth\u201d<\/a> that goal could be reached, and that eight million tests a month, or about 270,000 a day, might be possible by June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>At $10 a test, he has conceded, such an undertaking would cost at least $ 1.5 billion a week, but even that is far cheaper, he argued, than the damage now being done by keeping the country locked down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>For now, the lofty goal of tracing and testing the contacts of every infected person remains unthinkable. Epidemiological models in the United States and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">data from China<\/a> suggest that each case generates about 50 contacts, so the 25,000 new daily cases in the United States generate another 1.3 million contacts to find each day.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Even under ideal circumstances, a team of five tracers takes about three days to find 50 contacts. So, if the number of trained contact tracers were increased to 100,000 \u2014 from 3,000, the most recent tally \u2014 the daily case count would still have to drop below 5,000 just to stay even, assuming the tracers worked five-day weeks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>But the daily load is barely dropping below 25,000.<\/p>\n<p>Digitally automating the job has been proposed. But for Bluetooth and GPS apps like those used in South Korea to work in the United States and find a useful percentage of a victim\u2019s contacts \u2014 about 80 percent, calculated Tomas Pueyo, author of an article titled \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@tomaspueyo\/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">Coronavirus: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing<\/a>\u201d \u2014 Apple and Google would have to update their smartphone operating systems with built-in tracking apps that all cellphone owners would by law have to use. Also, neither location data nor Bluetooth could be turned off.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Americans are unlikely to accept that, Mr. Pueyo conceded.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe fear \u20181984,\u2019\u201d he wrote. \u201cWe want to avoid an A.I.-driven world where the government knows our every movement, rates us according to our behavior, and soon tells us what to think.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Making masks obligatory has strong potential to cut down transmission, according to new evidence not just from Asia, where masks have long been common, but also from the Czech Republic, Germany, Israel and other countries, <a href=\"https:\/\/masks4all.co\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">according to Masks4All<\/a>, an advocacy group.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The single biggest mistake made in the United States and some European countries that have failed to control their epidemics \u201cis that people aren\u2019t wearing masks,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2020\/03\/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">argued Dr. George F. Gao<\/a>, the Harvard- and Oxford-trained director of China\u2019s Center for Disease Control.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Outside New York, California and a few other states, many Americans resist wearing them.<\/p>\n<p>Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio rescinded an order to wear masks after state residents \u201cfelt affronted,\u201d he said. Officials in Stillwater, Okla., dropped a municipal order after store clerks who asked barefaced customers to stay outside were threatened.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2 id=\"link-458646b6\">Neglected Criteria<\/h2>\n<p>In the absence of detailed national reopening standards, governors are setting their own, and some allow far closer human contact than others do.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>It is or will soon be possible in 19 states to get your hair cut or roots dyed, for example. Many states are letting restaurants reopen with restrictions that require six feet between diners, outdoor seating only or disposable menus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>By contrast, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has refused to even set a date for easing restrictions everywhere in the state, although three regions will be allowed to partially reopen on May 15. Although hospitalizations and deaths are steadily declining, he said, they are still dropping too slowly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cAll of this inconvenience, all of this turmoil, for what?\u201d he asked this month. \u201cTo keep 100,000 people out of our hospitals, that\u2019s for what.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>When restrictions are lifted, he said, the state\u2019s least-affected central counties will go first and each economic sector will be phased in slowly: construction and factory jobs first, and retail establishments that can deliver goods curbside. Next: banks, insurance, law firms and other professions. Then restaurants and hotels, and finally entertainment, sports and schools.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>One of the most difficult decisions is when to open primary schools. Doing so is crucial to getting young parents back to work, but scientists are still unsure about how much children spread the disease to their families. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/coronavirus-live-updates\/2020\/05\/08\/852808030\/french-education-minister-says-school-reopenings-will-be-done-very-progressively\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">France is reopening<\/a> its schools this week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2020-05-04\/australian-schools-reopening-after-coronavirus-closures\/12211526\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">as are some regions of Australia<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/10\/world\/europe\/reopen-schools-germany.html\" title=\"\">much of Europe<\/a>, so there may be some data soon on the question.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Unlike New York State, Florida, Tennessee and Texas are reopening <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/changing-america\/well-being\/prevention-cures\/495679-coronavirus-cases-deaths-are-spiking-in-some-of\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">as their cases and deaths are spiking<\/a> to new highs, which means, experts said, that it is impossible to know when or how high they will peak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>If that happened, a wave of unexpected deaths could deliver some sharp political shocks, researchers predicted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cExcess fatalities may mean some serious consequences for the governors,\u201d said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the disaster preparedness center at Columbia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Frustrated Americans, eager to break out of lockdowns, often do not realize how lax this country\u2019s strictures are compared with those imposed elsewhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>In Chinese cities, only a tiny corps of essential workers was allowed to leave home for months. There was virtually no travel between cities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>People lucky enough to live in apartment complexes with internal gardens could walk there; others had to stay indoors, unable to shop even for food or medicine. Building committees pooled grocery orders and distributed them internally.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>No city in China was allowed to reopen until it had reached 14 days of zero new cases \u2014 a standard that no American city is expected to meet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>In Italy, many residents were not allowed to go more than 200 yards from their homes without written government authorization. Police roadblocks enforcing that rule were everywhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>If deaths in the United States surged, harsh measures like those could, in theory, be imposed.<\/p>\n<p>The 1918 Spanish flu provides some lessons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w27049.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">new analysis<\/a> of that epidemic from the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass., concluded that various lockdown measures had \u201cclear success\u201d in lowering death rates. But they ultimately failed to curb overall mortality in most cities because they were lifted prematurely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>School closings and bans on public gatherings typically lasted only 36 days, the report said, and Americans usually tolerated quarantine for only 18 days.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Denver, for example, closed its schools and banned public gatherings for only one month after deaths peaked. Then reopening caused <a href=\"https:\/\/marginalrevolution.com\/marginalrevolution\/2020\/03\/what-worked-in-1918-1919.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">a second, much higher peak of deaths<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cThe lesson for the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in 2020 is that, to curtail overall deaths,\u201d wrote the chief author, Robert J. Barro, such interventions \u201chave to be maintained for substantially longer than a few weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cMost likely,\u201d he added, \u201c12 weeks work much better than four to six weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure aria-label=\"media\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/05VIRUS-NEXTWAVE6\/merlin_172134264_deb1decd-11c1-4f66-bf35-6fde98579e9f-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&#038;auto=webp\" itemprop=\"associatedMedia\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" role=\"group\">\n<div>\n<p><span>Image<\/span><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption itemprop=\"caption description\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">Central Park on a recent Saturday.\u00a0<\/span><span itemprop=\"copyrightHolder\"><span>Credit&#8230;<\/span><span>Eduardo Munoz\/Reuters<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2 id=\"link-978b3e6\">Uncontrolled Experiments<\/h2>\n<p>Dr. Frieden, the former C.D.C. director, now runs Resolve to Save Lives, the public health advocacy group that has issued detailed reopening guidelines.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cEvery day, I look at the two models for approaching this,\u201d he said. \u201cThe China model, which is to use the world\u2019s most authoritarian regime and best digital tracking system to hunt down and stop every case and then wait for a vaccine. So far, it\u2019s working.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>By contrast, he said, Sweden is trying to achieve \u201cherd immunity\u201d by letting young, healthy people become infected at what they hope will be slow, steady rates. Primary schools are open, higher ones are closed, everyone is asked to be careful in public and older adults are asked to stay home.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Israel is roughly following Sweden\u2019s model, Dr. Frieden said, just as Asian countries are roughly following China\u2019s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cAnd then,\u201d he added, \u201cthere\u2019s the American approach, which is: \u2018What the hell \u2014 I heard something on Fox News. Let\u2019s try it!\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Sweden\u2019s model does look appealing. Television news programs have shown smiling Swedes drinking in outdoor cafes, shopping for clothes, getting their hair restyled and enjoying other little pleasures that Americans have been denied for many weeks now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>But Sweden is paying a high price, and Dr. Frieden rated its success as \u201cstill to be determined.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As of Sunday, its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\">per capita death rate<\/a> is 319 per million Swedes, which is higher than the figure in the United States, which is 242 deaths per million.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Other Scandinavian countries, with varying degrees of lockdown, have far lower death figures: 91 per million in Denmark, 40 in Norway, 48 in Finland and 29 in Iceland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Having 50 states and more territories do competing and uncoordinated experiments in reopening is \u201cdaring Mother Nature to kill you or someone you love,\u201d Dr. Frieden said. \u201cMother Nature bats last, and she bats a thousand.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure aria-label=\"media\" itemid=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/12\/science\/05VIRUS-NEXTWAVE5\/merlin_172034043_360179d2-ad54-4d4c-b763-30d7e19d08be-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&#038;auto=webp\" itemprop=\"associatedMedia\" itemscope=\"\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" role=\"group\">\n<div>\n<p><span>Image<\/span><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption itemprop=\"caption description\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">Flowers and candles left last month in Stockholm as a memorial to people who died of the coronavirus.<\/span><span itemprop=\"copyrightHolder\"><span>Credit&#8230;<\/span><span>Jonathan Nackstrand\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"\" id=\"NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION\">\n<section id=\"styln-faq-coronavirus\">\n<div>\n<div id=\"g-inlineguide-id\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<div id=\"truncate-content\">\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Updated April 11, 2020<\/p>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What should I do if I feel sick?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/well\/what-if-i-have-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">If you\u2019ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have,<\/a> and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>When will this end?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>This is a difficult question, because a lot depends on<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/03\/20\/us\/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\"> how well the virus is contained<\/a>. A better question might be: \u201cHow will we know when to reopen the country?\u201d In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf\">an American Enterprise Institute report<\/a>, Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/06\/upshot\/coronavirus-four-benchmarks-reopening.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">staked out four goal posts for recovery<\/a>: Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care; the state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms; the state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts; and there must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>How can I help?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The Times Neediest Cases Fund has started a special campaign to help those who have been affected, which accepts <a href=\"https:\/\/charity.gofundme.com\/o\/en\/campaign\/neediest-cases-fund-covid-relief\">donations here<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.charitynavigator.org\/index.cfm?bay=content.view&#038;cpid=7779\">Charity Navigator<\/a>, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redcrossblood.org\/donate-blood\/dlp\/coronavirus--covid-19--and-blood-donation.html\">American Red Cross<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/wck.org\/\">World Central Kitchen<\/a> has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities. More than 30,000 coronavirus-related <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gofundme.com\/c\/act\/covid19\">GoFundMe fund-raisers<\/a> have started in the past few weeks. (The sheer number of fund-raisers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/26\/style\/gofundme-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">means more of them are likely to fail <\/a>to meet their goal, though.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Should I wear a mask?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The C.D.C. has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/03\/world\/coronavirus-news-updates.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">recommended<\/a> that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/31\/health\/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\"> new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms<\/a>. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don\u2019t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don\u2019t replace hand washing and social distancing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>How do I get tested?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>If you\u2019re sick and you think you\u2019ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/well\/what-if-i-have-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. <\/a>They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there\u2019s a chance \u2014 because of a lack of testing kits or because you\u2019re asymptomatic, for instance \u2014 you won\u2019t be able to get tested.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>How does coronavirus spread?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>It seems to spread <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/03\/22\/world\/coronavirus-spread.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">very easily from person to person,<\/a> especially in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can be carried on tiny respiratory droplets that fall as they are coughed or sneezed out. It may also be transmitted when we touch a contaminated surface and then touch our face.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Is there a vaccine yet?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>No. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/19\/us\/politics\/coronavirus-vaccine-competition.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">Clinical trials are underway<\/a> in the United States, China and Europe. But American officials and pharmaceutical executives have said that a vaccine remains at least 12 to 18 months away.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What makes this outbreak so different?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Unlike the flu, there is no known treatment or vaccine, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/what-is-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">little is known about this particular virus so far.<\/a> It seems to be more lethal than the flu, but the numbers are still uncertain. And it hits the elderly and those with underlying conditions \u2014 not just those with respiratory diseases \u2014 particularly hard.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What if somebody in my family gets sick?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>If the family member doesn\u2019t need hospitalization and can be cared for at home, you should help him or her with basic needs and monitor the symptoms, while also keeping as much distance as possible, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/22\/well\/what-if-i-have-coronavirus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">according to guidelines issued by the C.D.C.<\/a> If there\u2019s space, the sick family member should stay in a separate room and use a separate bathroom. If masks are available, both the sick person and the caregiver should wear them when the caregiver enters the room. Make sure not to share any dishes or other household items and to regularly clean surfaces like counters, doorknobs, toilets and tables. Don\u2019t forget to wash your hands frequently.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Should I stock up on groceries?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Plan two weeks of meals if possible. But people should not hoard food or supplies. Despite the empty shelves, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/15\/business\/coronavirus-food-shortages.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">the supply chain remains strong.<\/a> And remember to wipe the handle of the grocery cart with a disinfecting wipe and wash your hands as soon as you get home.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Can I go to the park?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don\u2019t live in your home. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/19\/well\/move\/coronavirus-covid-exercise-outdoors-infection-fitness.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>Should I pull my money from the markets?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/02\/26\/your-money\/stock-market-changes-virus.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">That\u2019s not a good idea.<\/a> Even if you\u2019re retired, having a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds so that your money keeps up with inflation, or even grows, makes sense. But retirees may want to think about having enough cash set aside for a year\u2019s worth of living expenses and big payments needed over the next five years.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"g-inlineguide-item-list\">\n<li>\n<h4><strong>What should I do with my 401(k)?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Watching your balance go up and down can be scary. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/07\/your-money\/target-date-funds-stock-market.html?action=click&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;state=default&#038;module=styln-coronavirus-national&#038;region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&#038;context=storylines_faq\">You may be wondering if you should decrease your contributions \u2014 don\u2019t!<\/a> If your employer matches any part of your contributions, make sure you\u2019re at least saving as much as you can to get that \u201cfree money.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<\/hr><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/11\/health\/coronavirus-second-wave-infections.html\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Officials are under pressure to restart the economy, but many states are moving too quickly, researchers say. The costs may be measured in lost lives.A field hospital in Central Park last month. Though hospitalizations and deaths due to the coronavirus are declining, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has refused to set a date&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29202,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[705,365],"class_list":{"0":"post-29201","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-health","8":"tag-reopen","9":"tag-states"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>As States Rush to Reopen, Scientists Fear a Coronavirus Comeback - Virus Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/as-states-rush-to-reopen-scientists-fear-a-coronavirus-comeback\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"As States Rush to Reopen, Scientists Fear a Coronavirus Comeback - Virus Reports\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Officials are under pressure to restart the economy, but many states are moving too quickly, researchers say. The costs may be measured in lost lives.A field hospital in Central Park last month. Though hospitalizations and deaths due to the coronavirus are declining, Gov. Andrew M. 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