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The post Trump’s Favorite Coronavirus Metric, The Case Fatality, Is Unreliable appeared first on Virus Reports.
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President Trump speaks during a briefing Tuesday at the White House, with a chart showing case fatality rate behind him.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
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Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
President Trump speaks during a briefing Tuesday at the White House, with a chart showing case fatality rate behind him.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
As the number of coronavirus cases started spiking again this month, the White House keyed in on a different number – one that paints a more rosy picture of the pandemic: the case fatality rate.
When asked about rising cases at a recent briefing, Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany quickly parried “We’re seeing the fatality rate in this country come down,” Said McEnany. “That is a very good thing.”
The case fatality rate is the result of a simple mathematical calculation: the number of diagnosed cases of coronavirus divided by the number of deaths. But it’s also a moving target. Case numbers are rising fast, deaths are a lagging indicator, running several weeks behind.
“Measuring … mortality rates on any given day is not a reliable way of communicating about this pandemic,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby is director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
It is possible innovations in treatments methods and therapeutic drugs have helped improve the survivability of COVID-19. It is also possible that with more young people being infected in this latest round, they are less likely to die. But medical experts warn it is also just too soon to be sure. And they say, it’s an unreliable and misleading metric.
But that hasn’t stopped President Trump from boasting about the figure.
“Our case fatality rate has continued to decline and is lower than the European Union and almost everywhere else in the world,” Trump said Tuesday at his first White House coronavirus briefing in nearly three months.
In his interview on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace, Trump asked his staff to bring him the “death chart.” He said “the death chart is much more important” as Wallace ticked through 75,000 daily cases and 1,000 daily deaths.
Trump had that chart displayed behind him during the briefing. But this isn’t a metric public health experts have been using.
Inglesby says by a more direct measure, the sheer number of deaths, even adjusted for population size, the U.S. is not doing well compared to other countries around the world.
“What national leaders have the obligation to tell people is just the direct truth,” Inglesby said. “If we give them a false sense that things are getting better when they’re not then they’re going to make decisions that increase the risk of transmission. And they’re also going to stop having confidence in the information they’re being given.”
Focusing on the fatality rate also glosses over other serious problems with coronavirus, says Dr. David Relman, who specializes in immunology and infectious diseases at Stanford. He says about 20% of people get really sick with potential long term health consequences, coronavirus is stressing the medical system and as long as it is uncontained, the virus is holding the economy back too. So, as he sees it, talking about the case fatality rate is counterproductive.
“What you do instead when you pull out one little piece and dangle it in front of people is to confuse and distract and undermine the overall message,” said Relman.
He says people need to take this virus seriously and take precautions, and that is a sacrifice that requires leaders to get the public on board. For President Trump accentuating the positive may have short term political benefits, but there are longer term risks.
“I think it was a mistake early on to be dismissive of the seriousness of it and that it was just going to go away,” said Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist.
DuHaime gives Trump credit for coming out this week and treating the coronavirus more seriously than he has in the past, telling people to wear masks and avoid crowds. Though he readily acknowledges Trump has gone through other brief spurts urging the public to sacrifice to slow the spread of the virus, only to reverse himself, downplay the severity and pressure states to re-open.
“In order for him to succeed here politically, his credibility has to be as strong as possible,” said DuHaime, who now works at the firm Mercury.
Trump’s credibility has taken a major hit through this crisis. According to the latest Pew Poll only 30% of Americans Trust Trump to get the facts right on the virus. And Trump’s approval rating has tanked too, something he is attempting to repair with the resumed daily briefings.
“At the end of the day, he just needs to do a good job. I know that sounds simplistic but when you’re an incumbent running for re-election doing a good job is really the most important thing,” said DuHaime. “And to this point people haven’t seen him do a good job on what they think is the greatest challenge of his presidency.”
DuHaime points out people are checking the numbers every day, the number of new cases in their city and state, the number of hospitalizations and deaths. Those numbers are all readily available and easier to find than the case fatality rate.
The post Trump’s Favorite Coronavirus Metric, The Case Fatality, Is Unreliable appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>The post Dem establishment favorite McGrath faces last-minute primary threat from the left in bid for McConnell seat appeared first on Virus Reports.
]]>Democratic Senate candidate Amy McGrath of Kentucky – showcasing her grassroots appeal – took to Twitter this weekend to tout her fundraising prowess.
McGrath – who many Democrats hope will be the candidate to topple Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – noted that “we’ve crossed our 1 millionth donation mark. While the average donation hasn’t changed, our grassroots team has grown stronger across KY. This is how we win – together.”
KENTUCKY’S ONLY DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN CRITIQUES MCGRATH
The former U.S. Marine fighter pilot hauled in a whopping $11.3 million the past three months, outraising McConnell in the second quarter of fundraising. And with a massive campaign war chest of $19 million as of the start of June, she topped the top Senate Republican when it comes to cash on hand.
But with eight days to go until Kentucky’s June 23 primary, McGrath has an intra-party fight on her hands, as one-time longshot progressive candidate Charles Booker is gaining momentum at just the right time.
The first-term state lawmaker last week was endorsed by two of the biggest names on the left – Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
And the unrest the past three weeks sparked by the death of George Floyd in police custody has shined a spotlight on Booker – who’s black – as his hometown of Louisville has experienced protests.
Booker on Saturday spotlighted his momentum by sharing an internal poll on Twitter that suggested he was closing the gap with McGrath. And on Sunday, he tweeted: “Three words: WE ARE SURGING. I think we should make this trend: #CharlesBookerSurge.”
While McGrath has an astronomical cash advantage over Booker, he has the edge when it comes to in-state endorsements from elected officials and media. And the backing a week ago by popular sports radio host Matt Jones – who flirted with his own Senate run against McConnell – may help Booker outside of his home base in Louisville.
“With everything that’s gripped the country the past few weeks, it could be turning things on its head,” said Jessica Taylor of the Cook Report, a leading nonpartisan political handicapper.
Taylor noted that the protests against police brutality toward minorities and the bigger issue of systemic racism “seem tailor-made to a candidate like Booker…He has been able to seize the moment and speak to the moment.”
THE LATEST FROM FOX NEWS ON THE 2020 BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
But complicating Booker’s effort is Charles Broihier, a farmer and a former U.S. Marine lieutenant colonel who’s also running to the left of McGrath, who enjoys the backing of national Democrats. He could siphon progressive votes from Booker in the more rural parts of the state.
Broihier on Monday touted that, “We’re the only campaign with a comprehensive plan for #MedicareForAll.”
Turnout could end up being the crucial factor in the primary – which was originally scheduled for May but postponed due to health concerns over in-person voting amid the coronavirus pandemic. With all voters eligible to vote by absentee ballot, extensive early voting by mail may mean that Booker’s last-minute surge comes too late to make a difference at the ballot box.
While Booker’s momentum “certainly makes things interesting,” Taylor spotlighted that “McGrath is the one who’s had the campaign apparatus in place and has been raising astounding amounts of money and that in a traditional year should be enough to get her over the finish line.”
And a national Democratic strategist who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely stressed that “more often than not the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party – while they’re successful in pushing their policies into the conversation – they’re less successful in actually winning these primary elections.”
The post Dem establishment favorite McGrath faces last-minute primary threat from the left in bid for McConnell seat appeared first on Virus Reports.
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