argues Archives - Virus Reports

UW Medicine lab — University of Washington researchers work with the virus that causes COVID-19 in a restricted lab. (UW Medicine via YouTube)

In a newly published study, a University of Washington researcher argues that the eventual death toll from COVID-19 could be more than twice as high as the figures currently being discussed.

CHOICE Institute.” data-reactid=”33″ type=”text”>The study was written by Anirban Basu, a health economist and statistician who’s the director of UW’s Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy and Economics Institute, also known as the CHOICE Institute.

research paper, published online Thursday by the journal Health Affairs, Basu acknowledges there’s still lots of uncertainty surrounding the fatality rate for the disease caused by the coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2. But he says there’s evidence that the U.S. death toll could amount to 350,000 to 1.2 million.” data-reactid=”34″ type=”text”>In his research paper, published online Thursday by the journal Health Affairs, Basu acknowledges there’s still lots of uncertainty surrounding the fatality rate for the disease caused by the coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2. But he says there’s evidence that the U.S. death toll could amount to 350,000 to 1.2 million.

interview with MedicalResearch.com.” data-reactid=”55″ type=”text”>“This is a staggering number, which can only be brought down with sound public health measures,” Basu said in an interview with MedicalResearch.com.

latest projections from UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate that the U.S. death toll due to COVID-19 will amount to nearly 135,000 by Aug. 4. IHME’s projections are closely watched (and occasionally lowballed) by the White House. “We’ll be at 100,000” or 110,000 deaths, President Donald Trump told Fox News today.” data-reactid=”56″ type=”text”>The latest projections from UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate that the U.S. death toll due to COVID-19 will amount to nearly 135,000 by Aug. 4. IHME’s projections are closely watched (and occasionally lowballed) by the White House. “We’ll be at 100,000” or 110,000 deaths, President Donald Trump told Fox News today.

Unlike IHME’s projections, Basu’s calculations don’t depend directly on what kinds of social distancing policies are in place, and they’re not limited to the time frame between now and August. They’re based purely on estimates of how many people who contract the disease end up dying.

infection fatality rate, or IFR, is 1.3%. That figure has an uncertainty interval of 0.6% to 2.1% at 95% confidence.” data-reactid=”58″ type=”text”>Based on an analysis of figures from 116 counties selected from 33 states, Basu estimates that the symptomatic infection fatality rate, or IFR, is 1.3%. That figure has an uncertainty interval of 0.6% to 2.1% at 95% confidence.

Running the numbers on fatalities

To derive his “staggering” death toll, Basu assumes that 20% of the U.S. population is infected with the virus by the end of the year, and that more than 80% of those people show symptoms. The others would never know they had the virus.

Running the percentages on the upper and lower limits of the uncertainty interval would give you 350,000 to 1.2 million deaths, if you start with a high estimate for U.S. population.

Basu admits that his assumptions may not be quite right. That’s particularly true for the assumptions relating to how many people with the virus never show symptoms. “Population-wide antibody testing would be needed to establish this statistic,” he says in the Health Affairs research paper.

The latest COVID-19 developments in Seattle and the world of tech” data-reactid=”63″ type=”text”>Coronavirus Live Updates: The latest COVID-19 developments in Seattle and the world of tech

COVID-19 projection model that’s often compared with IHME’s model, wrote in a tweet.” data-reactid=”64″ type=”text”>But at least some of the assumptions are well in line with what other researchers are finding. “This agrees with our model’s 0.9-1.2% IFR [infection fatality rate] estimate from last week,” Youyang Gu, a data scientist who’s in charge of a COVID-19 projection model that’s often compared with IHME’s model, wrote in a tweet.

Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said Basu seemed to be on the right track with his estimate of the fatality rate. “I think that it’s a very fair estimate given it’s still unknown, a work in progress we’ll nail down better over time,” Topol told GeekWire in an email.

For what it’s worth, Basu’s symptomatic infection fatality rate estimate for Seattle and the rest of King County is higher than the norm, at 3.6%. But he points out that the figures can vary depending on the demographics of the COVID-19 patient population and the care they receive.

“It is possible, as the infection spreads to more rural counties of the country, the overall IFR will increase due to the lack of access to necessary health care delivery,” he said.

Bad news about virus transmission

Institute for Disease Modeling had some bad news for western Washington state on that score today.” data-reactid=”69″ type=”text”>Another concern has to do with what happens when social distancing policies are relaxed. The Bellevue, Wash.-based Institute for Disease Modeling had some bad news for western Washington state on that score today.

The institute’s analysis suggests that the outbreak is plateauing, or potentially on its way to a rebound, with 95% of King County’s population still fully susceptible to COVID-19.” data-reactid=”70″ type=”text”>After weeks of seeing declines in the transmissibility of COVID-19, epidemiologists reported that the data showed a slight uptick as of April 22. The institute’s analysis suggests that the outbreak is plateauing, or potentially on its way to a rebound, with 95% of King County’s population still fully susceptible to COVID-19.

said in a news release.” data-reactid=”75″ type=”text”>“This report once again reminds us that our position is precarious and COVID-19 transmission and new cases remain unacceptably high,” Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health – Seattle & King County, said in a news release.

Transmissibility of coronavirus — The black dots represent the most recent estimates of the effective reproductive number in King County from the Institute for Disease Modeling, with lines extending above and below the dots representing error bars. The gray dots show the previous estimates for comparison. Recent data points suggest that the transmissibility trend is edging back upward after a long decline. (IDM Graphic)

“We need to double down on distancing and other prevention steps at home, in the community and in workplaces, and we must see these numbers improve before relaxing our current restrictions,” Duchin said.

Looking on the bright side, it’s possible that the prospects for surviving the virus will improve due to the development of new treatments. Or that the chances of contracting the virus in the first place will decrease when vaccines become available.

“All these estimates are based on the fact that right now there’s no treatment or vaccine,” Basu told GeekWire.

When we look back at all this a year from now, let’s hope that the outlook for the outbreak isn’t staggering, but encouraging.

More from GeekWire:

A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25% — far lower than the mortality rates of 2-4% or even higher cited in the early days of the pandemic.

Dr. Donald Yealy based it partly on studies of levels of coronavirus antibodies detected in people in New York and California, and partly on COVID-19 deaths in the Pittsburgh region. The studies found that 5-20% of people had been exposed to the coronavirus, with many noticing only mild illness or none at all, he said.

“We’ve learned that way more people, far, far more people have actually been exposed to the infection without any knowledge of it. That makes the overall death rate much lower,” said Yealy, who is UPMC’s chair of emergency medicine. “Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered without difficulty.”

Yealy went on to offer a hypothetical scenario of 3% of Allegheny County residents being exposed — a conservative number compared to the findings of the New York and California studies.

That would mean about 36,000 people in Allegheny have been exposed to the coronavirus. With 94 COVID-19 deaths in the county as of Thursday, it would mean 0.25 percent of people exposed to the coronavirus had died, he said.

“There is a big difference between 0.25% mortality and 7%,” Yealy said.

Yealy said about 1,300 people in Allegheny have tested positive for COVID-19. That would mean, in his hypothetical scenario, another 34,700 had been exposed but had no symptoms. He noted the latter group may also have antibodies to protect them from future infection, although he pointed out it’s still unknown how much protection people get from previous exposure to the new coronavirus.

Yealy further said the majority of the deaths among UPMC patients involved people over 80, with many being nursing home residents.

Yealy has been one of the main public voices of UPMC during the coronavirus pandemic. He spoke Thursday during a 40-minute online discussion with reporters.

Another speaker, Dr. Rachel Sackrowitz, the chief medical officer for UPMC’s intensive care units, said 234 COVID-19 patients have recovered and been discharged from UPMC hospitals. “This is very good news. It means people are getting better and we’re all on the right track together.”

Yealy said only 2% percent of the UPMC system’s 5,500 beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients and the number of new COVID-19 patients is declining.

He cited that figure in explaining UPMC’s plans to quickly increase its volume of the non-emergency surgeries that were largely banned to conserve beds and supplies for COVID-19 patients. The ban is now being eased as the volume of COVID-19 patients falls short of worst-case predictions.

The officials said UPMC remains ready to deal with any upturn in COVID-19 cases.

Yealy said he can’t predict if there will be a second wave, but said “What I suspect is COVID-19 will be a part of our experience treating patients for an extended [period of] months to maybe years.”

Yealy was asked whether people should worry about COVID-19 more than the regular flu. He said people should be “worried differently,” pointing out that both take their heaviest toll on the elderly, especially nursing home residents, and people weakened by other medical conditions.

Yealy said he “would not think of it as more or less, just two different illnesses that share some features, but have some distinct differences.”

Sackrowitz said she expects COVID-19 will be part of the ongoing “disease burden” affecting Americans and, as with the flu, doctors will find treatments.

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