{"id":49986,"date":"2020-06-30T00:21:52","date_gmt":"2020-06-30T00:21:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/millions-track-the-pandemic-on-johns-hopkinss-dashboard-those-who-built-it-say-some-miss-the-real-story\/"},"modified":"2020-06-30T00:21:52","modified_gmt":"2020-06-30T00:21:52","slug":"millions-track-the-pandemic-on-johns-hopkinss-dashboard-those-who-built-it-say-some-miss-the-real-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/virusreports.net\/millions-track-the-pandemic-on-johns-hopkinss-dashboard-those-who-built-it-say-some-miss-the-real-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Millions track the pandemic on Johns Hopkins\u2019s dashboard. Those who built it say some miss the real story."},"content":{"rendered":"
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The novel coronavirus<\/a> was working its way through the United States, and Blauer \u2014 along with dozens of colleagues at Johns Hopkins University \u2014 was actively tracking its path.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe sirens now feel different,\u201d she said recently. \u201cThey come with a different flood of emotions.\u201d<\/p>\n

The noise outside her window was a tangible reminder of the human lives hidden in the maze of anonymous data that had come to dominate her days.<\/p>\n

Since launching in January, the university\u2019s Coronavirus Resource Center<\/a> has exploded in scope and popularity, garnering millions of page views and popping up in news coverage and daily conversation. Through numbers, the tracker has told the story of what the virus is doing while the story is still unfolding, offering a nearly real-time picture of its silent march across the globe.<\/p>\n

But even as data has jumped to the forefront of international discussions about the virus, the Johns Hopkins team wrestles with doubts about whether the numbers can truly capture the scope of the pandemic, and whether the public and policymakers are failing to absorb the big picture. They know what they are producing is not a high-resolution snapshot of the pandemic but a constantly shifting Etch a Sketch of the trail of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.<\/p>\n

Case counts are consistently inconsistent. Reporting practices differ from country to country, state to state, even county to county. If authorities fail to contextualize the virus with other factors \u2014 such as Zip codes, race or Medicaid usage \u2014 the hardest-hit communities<\/a> can go unseen.<\/p>\n

\u201cNumbers in some ways instill this sense of comfort. But then on the other hand, they can be wrong,\u201d said Lauren Gardner, the associate professor at Johns Hopkins\u2019s Whiting School of Engineering who has spearheaded the global tracker since Day 1. \u201cAnd they can be wrong for lots of different reasons.\u201d<\/p>\n

For those looking closely, the Hopkins project does lay out a clearly legible story about American life today, one involving economic inequality, racial disparities and poor access to health care. Many of the same issues flared up in street protests after the May 25 killing of George Floyd<\/a> in Minneapolis police custody, an incident that sparked civil unrest and temporarily pushed the pandemic off the country\u2019s front pages.<\/p>\n

The tracker data can offer a bridge between the two news cycles, those working all hours to maintain it say. And as cases again begin to spike in the South and West<\/a>, the Johns Hopkins project remains a key resource for understanding the virus\u2019s impact.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the first time data has been such a central part of the narrative,\u201d said Blauer, the executive director of Johns Hopkins University\u2019s Centers for Civic Impact. \u201cThe human connection \u2014 I think we need more of that in the larger national narrative. It just feels like the compassion is getting lost.\u201d<\/p>\n

Launching the project<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n

It started over coffee.<\/p>\n

The virus had clouded Ensheng Dong\u2019s thoughts all January. Every time the first-year PhD student called home to China\u2019s Shanxi province, he heard about the sickness spreading from Wuhan.<\/p>\n

Dong modeled outbreaks as part of his studies. He had lived through China\u2019s 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. Combing the available Chinese statistics, he realized each data point could be a former classmate or neighbor or family member.<\/p>\n

So when Gardner, his adviser at Hopkins, suggested that Dong create a map to track the global reach of the infection, he readily agreed.<\/p>\n

\u201cI wanted to use my experience to collect data to show the public,\u201d Dong said. \u201cAnd the first member of the public was me.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gardner, an expert in modeling infectious-disease spread, initially had a fairly modest vision for the project. She knew disease reporting \u2014 or how authorities track and publicize the numbers \u2014 is inconsistent. She figured that by noting the data in real time, she and Dong could provide academic colleagues with statistics for later analysis.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we started this there was not a single dedicated covid-19 tracking website by a public health authority anywhere,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Dong went straight to work. For 12 hours, he collected data, translated information from Chinese, designed tables and bulldozed the statistics into a program that would create a map. His stark aesthetic choices \u2014 black for the background, red for dots indicating infections \u2014 were deliberate: \u201cI wanted to alarm people that the situation was getting worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

The next morning, Jan.\u00a022, Dong showed Gardner his results. After a few tweaks, the project went live, with red dots ballooning across countries \u2014 and states and provinces, when possible \u2014 to show numbers of known cases, and charts listing confirmed cases and deaths for each jurisdiction.<\/p>\n

Gardner and Dong fished through media reports and Twitter accounts for updates, manually punching in the new figures. Early on, as the virus spread to Japan and South Korea, the project was a crowdsourced effort, with people from around the world emailing about new cases. The data feeding into the dashboard was open to the public in a Google Sheets file, so anyone could click through the numbers and pinpoint mistakes or offer suggestions.<\/p>\n

As the potential dimensions of the disaster took shape \u2014 millions sick, widespread lockdowns, a scorched-earth global economy \u2014 the public looked to the tracker to make sense of a frightful ordeal.<\/p>\n

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I\u2019ve gone a whole day without checking the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus dashboard. (Anyone else obsessed with that thing?) Decided to go check out my garden instead. pic.twitter.com\/FvU3lAqPsw<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Michelle Rheault (@rheault_m) May 15, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Lainie Rutkow, a professor of health policy and management at Hopkins\u2019s Bloomberg School of Public Health, was reminded of the public anxiety she witnessed in the days after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, a cataclysmic event that had rerouted her from a career in law to one in public health.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat same type of uncertainty, I see now,\u201d she said, \u201cthose feelings of uncertainty about what happens next.\u201d<\/p>\n

She joined the team with the idea that what Gardner and Dong had started could grow into a more ambitious tool, one that could not only track the virus but also explain and contextualize the spread for a global audience desperate for information.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the mechanics behind the project were rapidly changing. In February, governments began releasing virus statistics. Rather than ease the workload, the shift revealed a major shortcoming: There was no international body laying out criteria for how to tally coronavirus<\/a> infections or deaths. Each country put out its own data, sometimes revising it weeks or months later in ways that dramatically changed the trends the tracker was trying to identify.<\/p>\n

The pace of infection \u2014 faster every day \u2014 created more issues for the small team.<\/p>\n

\u201cInitially, I was trying to update it two to three times a day, at 12 p.m. and 12 a.m.,\u201d Dong said. \u201cBut people were so anxious to see the dashboard, so I had to update every three to four hours. But sometimes by the time I had collected it all, the data had updated in the original data source, so I would have to tear down everything I\u2019d done and collect it again.\u201d<\/p>\n

Charting inequity<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n

Blauer first pulled up the tracker out of personal caution. It was February, and she was supposed to travel to Israel and India soon.<\/p>\n

As she scanned the dashboard, Blauer recognized that what her colleagues were building hit on concerns central to her work at the Centers for Civic Impact, which helps local and state governments use data in decision-making.<\/p>\n

She contacted Rutkow and asked to join the team.<\/p>\n

Her own plunge into data started after college, when Blauer worked as a juvenile probation officer in Baltimore.<\/p>\n

She would get called to police stations in the middle of the night and asked to determine whether a child who had just been arrested could go home with family or needed to spend the night in jail.<\/p>\n

\u201cI was asked to make a decision in the lives of these kids based on no information,\u201d she said. \u201cI didn\u2019t know if the child had been in school that day, if they had access to food at home, if there was a social worker involved with the family.\u201d<\/p>\n

There had to be a better way, she decided.<\/p>\n

In 2004, she became a key player in then-Mayor Martin O\u2019Malley\u2019s CitiStat program, a data-driven effort to track and monitor municipal work.<\/p>\n

When O\u2019Malley (D) became governor, Blauer ran a similar statewide effort from Annapolis, tracking everything from infant mortality rates to budget spending. The large-scale effort \u2014 one of the first of its kind in government \u2014 \u201cbecame a kind of religion,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The experience schooled Blauer on the nitty-gritty complexities of American inequity. Any given Zip code was layered with the historical baggage of past policies. Discriminatory housing, health-care access, school stability \u2014 they were all baked in.<\/p>\n

So when Blauer and others began plotting a U.S. dashboard to complement the global tracker in March, they decided a simple tally of infections and deaths would not be enough to fully explain what the virus was primed to do to black, Latino and Native American communities.<\/p>\n

The team settled on three areas of additional information for each county in the United States. The first was health-care capacity \u2014 not only the number of intensive care unit beds and staffing statistics but also how people accessed the local health-care system, whether through private insurance or Medicaid. Next, they decided to add information on the demographics of each county, including a racial breakdown, unemployment figures and age distribution.<\/p>\n

The third focus was comparing county disease data against the state\u2019s as a whole. The goal was to measure whether the virus posed an equal-opportunity risk or whether all that historical baggage would determine who lives and dies.<\/p>\n

The U.S. map went live in mid-April and was quickly complicated by inconsistencies in how different jurisdictions presented data.<\/p>\n

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had just changed its guidance, suggesting that local health officials include probable deaths and probable infections in their counts. Some states did. Some didn\u2019t. Sometimes some counties within a state would follow it and others would chart a different course.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s one thing that this is not consistent globally, that Spain presents data differently from Indonesia, and Indonesia reports differently from the U.S.,\u201d Gardner said. \u201cThe thing that\u2019s crazy to me is how different the reporting is within a state in the United States, let alone state to state.\u201d<\/p>\n

By then, Johns Hopkins, like the rest of the county, was shut down. The tracker team \u2014 which now comprises dozens of professors, experts and students from multiple departments \u2014 coordinated via long Zoom meetings, emails and phone calls.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe first 6 1<\/sup>\/2 <\/sub>weeks, we were building the plane as it flew, and we were flying at supersonic speeds,\u201d said Sheri Lewis, a member of Hopkins\u2019s Applied Physics Laboratory working on the tracker.<\/p>\n

The U.S. map soon illustrated what anecdotal reports were suggesting: Minority communities were being hit hardest by the disease.<\/p>\n

In Washington, D.C., African Americans <\/a>accounted for 46\u00a0percent of the city\u2019s population but 74\u00a0percent of deaths. In Arizona, Native Americans<\/a> \u2014 who make up about 5\u00a0percent of the population \u2014 accounted for 18\u00a0percent of deaths. And in South Dakota, where African Americans are less than 3\u00a0percent of the population, they represented 17\u00a0percent of coronavirus cases; other minority populations totaling around 16\u00a0percent of the population, including Latinos and Native Americans, made up 70\u00a0percent of cases.<\/p>\n

For Gardner, the U.S. map put a spotlight on inequalities that made the pandemic more heartbreaking.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you actually start looking at the affected populations, the breakdown of race and age and ethnicity and socioeconomic demographics, it becomes so much more human,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Even Blauer, who has spent her career teasing out the social ills hidden inside strings of numbers, felt frustration and resignation as she watched the virus\u2019s path.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve known for generations that populations that are poor and living in highly dense areas have these co-morbidities that are presenting for risk for covid-19,\u201d she said. \u201cBut the reality of the situation is we don\u2019t do anything about it. If you are born black in this country, it\u2019s harder for you to get a job, harder for you to keep a job and also harder for you to stay alive.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n

Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The novel coronavirus was working its way through the United States, and Blauer \u2014 along with dozens of colleagues at Johns Hopkins University \u2014 was actively tracking its path.\u201cThe sirens now feel different,\u201d she said recently. \u201cThey come with a different flood of emotions.\u201dThe noise outside her window was a tangible reminder of the human…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[13,888],"class_list":{"0":"post-49986","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-millions","9":"tag-track"},"yoast_head":"\nMillions track the pandemic on Johns Hopkins\u2019s dashboard. 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