A region that had been in lockstep has splintered in its approach to reopening parts of its economy, not to mention what’s happening in the rest of the state.
Many Bay Area counties have indicated they are preparing to enter “Phase 2” of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s four-phase plan to reopen California, which would permit curbside retail, manufacturing, business offices and some other services to resume operation. But others have held out, opting to keep all but essential businesses boarded up. Meanwhile, just outside the Bay Area, even some in-person shopping and dining is returning.
Regional approaches to reopening may be the wise public-health approach, but it can create a scattered and confusing ecosystem. Here’s a guide Phase 2.
What does Phase 2 mean?
When Newsom unveiled his four-tiered plan to reopen the state on April 28, one stipulation for the second phase was that businesses would reopen gradually. He officially moved the state into the second phase of his plan at the end of last week, but more restrictive local orders issued by county health officers remained in effect, leaving the Bay Area and hard-hit Los Angeles region under lockdown. At first, the governor said, any county not under a local order would be permitted to open lower-risk businesses — such as clothing, bookstores, sporting good stores and florists — for curbside pickup and delivery, though not in-store shopping (except in essential businesses) or dine-in eating. Parks and beaches are mostly open, but many parking lots at those places remain closed, and gatherings with those outside your household are still forbidden.
Tuesday, Newsom outlined what would happen next in Phase 2: the return of in-person dining and shopping (with masks and at reduced capacities) in counties that met certain coronavirus containment guidelines. Butte and El Dorado counties were the first to have their “local variance attestation” approved, and that list has since grown to 20 and counting.
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What was allowed in Phase 1 — essential businesses and services, such as grocery stores, emergency services and municipal work.
What’s allowed in the early stage of Phase 2 — curbside retail, manufacturing, logistics,
childcare for those outside of the essential workforce, office-based businesses (although telework remains strongly encouraged), car washes, pet grooming, landscaping, outdoor museums, open gallery spaces and other public spaces with modifications.
What’s allowed in the advanced stage of Phase 2: retail stores, shopping malls, swap meets, dine-in restaurants and schools with modifications.
What’s still not allowed: movie theaters, gambling venues, arcades, indoor museums, kids museums, gallery spaces, zoos, libraries, community centers, public pools, playgrounds, picnic areas, religious services, cultural ceremonies, bars, nightclubs, concert venues, live audience sports, festivals, theme parks, hotels/lodging for leisure and tourism, nonessential travel and higher education.
So, there are essentially two stages of Phase 2?
Yes. Currently, a few counties remain in Phase 1; those without local orders have entered Phase 2; and some have received special approval to accelerate the pace at which they move through Phase 2.
Here’s a breakdown, as of Friday morning:
Phase 1/local order in effect: Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Los Angeles and Sacramento.
Phase 2 (early): San Francisco (starting Monday), San Mateo (starting Monday), Alameda (starting Monday, but Tesla was allowed to go earlier), Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Cruz, San Bernardino, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Orange, Riverside, Ventura, Alpine, Fresno, Kern, Kings, Imperial, Inyo, Lake, Madera, Mendocino, Merced, Mono, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus, Trinity, Tulare and Yolo.
Phase 2 (advanced): Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, El Dorado, Glenn, Humboldt, Lassen, Nevada, Mariposa, Modoc, Placer, Plumas, San Benito, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Tuolumne and Yuba.
Which stage is the Bay Area in?
As noted, two counties in the Bay Area — Santa Clara and Contra Costa — have yet to indicate any plans to modify their strict local shelter-in-place orders, which remain in effect through May 31. Contra Costa issued a new order Friday to allow some outdoor and religious gatherings in cars but remained firmly in Phase 1 in declining to reopen retail and other businesses.
San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma and Santa Cruz also had local orders in place through the end of month, but their health officers in the last few days have either repealed or modified them to fall in line with the state’s guidance.
What is required to enter the second stage of Phase 2?
Any county that wants to accelerate its reopening must submit a 12-page application, called a “local variance attestation,” plus supporting documents.
The form sets forth a number of criteria counties are required to meet to prove their “readiness.”
- 1 or fewer cases per 10,000 residents the past 14 days
- No deaths for the past 14 days
- Minimum daily testing of 1.5 per 1,000 residents, with recommendation of 2 per 1,000
- Testing sites within 30 minutes of 75% of urban residents and 60 minutes of 75% of rural residents
- 15 contact tracers for every 100,000 residents
- Temporary housing available for 15% of population experiencing homelessness
- Hospital capacity for 35% surge in COVID-19 patients
- A “robust” plan to protect hospital workers and provide personal protective equipment
- A 14-day supply and a documented supply chain of PPE for skilled nursing facilities
None of the nine Bay Area counties meet the requirements of no more than one new case per 10,000 residents and no deaths over 14 days, according to this news organization’s analysis. Santa Clara and Napa come close to the new case requirements, but the former has reported 21 fatalities in that period, and the latter just reported its third death earlier this week.
What comes after Phase 2?
With so few counties meeting the requirements to enter even the advanced stage of Phase 2, it seems unlikely the state will quickly move on to the third phase, which would allow for salons and gyms to reopen and for religious services and sports (without crowds) to return.
Newsom has not laid out what it will take to enter Phase 3 but has said it is months, not weeks, away. As for Phase 4? That’s the end of the stay-at-home order, but it’s a long ways off, possibly more than a year.
