So when might California be ready to really loosen up its statewide stay-at-home order?
Gov. Gavin Newsom outlined a four-stage plan that envisions a process by which restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus are lifted gradually.
Newsom said he understood the frustrations and suggested he would announce an easing of some rules as early as this week.
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Alicia Cruz, center, of Elk Grove, Calif., takes part in a protest at the California State Capitol. She said she was there to protect civil liberties, her children’s future and future livelihoods.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
2/27
A protester holds a U.S. flag outside his car while joining a rally at the intersection of Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach calling on Gov. Gavin Newsom to reopen beaches and lift stay-at-home orders.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
3/27
Gareth Davies of Aliso Viejo waves the U.S. flag in Huntington Beach while protesting Gov. Gavin Newsom’s closure of Orange County beaches.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
4/27
Huntington Beach lifeguards patrol with a boat to try to clear surfers out of the water while protesters rallied nearby.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
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An aerial view of surfers in the waters off Huntington Beach on Friday.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
6/27
Mounted police line up to keep protesters on the sidewalk at the intersection of Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
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Motorists join the protesters at the intersection of Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
8/27
Hundreds of protesters rally at the intersection of Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
9/27
Protesters rally at the intersection of Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
10/27
Mounted police line up to keep protesters on the sidewalk at the intersection of Main Street and Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
11/27
California Highway Patrol officers take into custody a woman who refused to follow orders to move off the Capitol grounds during a protest Friday.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
12/27
More than 1,500 people took part in a protest at the Capitol in Sacramento, seeking a reopening of the California economy.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
13/27
California Highway Patrol officers take into custody a woman who refused to follow orders to move off the state Capitol grounds in Sacramento during a protest Friday.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
14/27
Hundreds of protesters gather at the state Capitol in Sacramento to protest Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
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Protesters converge on Huntington Beach on Friday to demand stay-at-home rules be lifted.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
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Protesters at Huntington Beach on Friday demand stay-at-home rules be lifted.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
17/27
Protesters demand that California’s stay-at-home rules be lifted at Huntington Beach on Friday.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
18/27
Hundreds of people converge in downtown Los Angeles to call on California Gov. Gavin Newsom to lift stay-at-home orders and reopen the state economy, saying the coronavirus lockdown has hurt workers.
(Luis Sinco / Los Angeles)
19/27
A proponent of opening the economy as quickly as possible, right, gets into a verbal altercation with a counterprotester at Los Angeles City Hall.
(Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
20/27
A protester calling for the end of stay-at-home restrictions, left, argues with a counterprotester outside L.A. City Hall.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
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A Los Angeles police officer stands outside City Hall on Friday as protesters call on the city and state governments to lift stay-at-home orders.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
22/27
Protesters demanding that stay-at-home rules be lifted gather outside L.A. City Hall on Friday.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
23/27
Protesters call for the end of coronavirus stay-at-home orders outside City Hall in downtown Los Angeles.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
24/27
Protesters in downtown Los Angeles call for the end of stay-at-home orders.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
25/27
Protesters demanding the end of the coronavirus lockdown wave flags in downtown Los Angeles.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
26/27
Hundreds of people converge in downtown Los Angeles to demand the reopening of the California economy.
(Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
27/27
A protester walks into the water in Hermosa Beach following a rally voicing their disagreement with California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s closure of beaches. The residents were joined by about 100 people in chanting to “open the beach,” and then a march to the sand and eventually water, near the Hermosa Beach Pier.
(Jay L. Clendenin/Los Angeles Times)
“I just want folks to know we’re getting very close to making really meaningful augmentations to that stay-at-home order,” Newsom said Friday. “I want to say many days, not weeks, as long as we continue to be prudent and thoughtful.”
The governor has described the next phase of his stay-at-home order as allowing some lower-risk businesses to reopen in communities across California, including retail locations, manufacturing sites and small businesses.
“The only thing that’s gonna hold us back is the spread of this virus,” Newsom said. “And the only thing that is sure to advance the spread of the virus is thousands of people congregating together. Practicing social distancing or physical distance, we can avoid that.”
Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the Trump administration’s corornavirus task force, also urged caution in reopening.
“Federal guidelines are a pretty firm policy of what we think is important from a public health standpoint,” Birx said on Fox News on Sunday. “As states reopen, we really want them to follow the gating criteria.”
Birx added that the American people needed to continue to practice social distancing.
California has not yet seen a steady two-week decline in coronavirus cases. The weekly number of cases appeared to flatten for several weeks in early April, with 8,000 to 8,500 cases every week. But from April 19 to 25, the state recorded 11,777 new cases, and in the seven days ending Saturday, 11,041 new cases were recorded.
California has started to see a week-over-week decline in deaths. Whether the trend will continue, however, is uncertain. From April 19 to 25, 547 coronavirus-related deaths were reported in California, and last week, 497 fatalities were reported, a 9% decrease in weekly deaths.
Here’s a rundown of the governor’s plan, and what one expert thinks of it.
The expert is Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, medical epidemiologist and infectious-disease expert at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. He’s also a former senior official for the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization. From 2004 to 2018, he was Los Angeles County’s director of the Division of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention.
Stage 1: Continue with the stay-at-home order
This is the stage we’re in. The governor issued the first statewide stay-at-home order in the nation March 19, three days after six San Francisco Bay Area counties implemented the first shelter-in-place order in the country.
Dr. Sonia Angell, the state health officer, said it was the right time to talk about reopening the state, given that hospitalization rates for COVID-19 are stable in California. Some regions have already begun loosening local orders stricter than the state’s.
Expert forecast: By the end of May or into mid-June, Kim-Farley expects that places that have effectively maintained physical-distancing measures will see significant reductions in the numbers of cases. He also suspects that, around this time, there will be enough capacity to offer tests for the virus and antibodies — to determine whether people may have some immunity — to meet the demand.
More than 2,200 Californians have died and more than 54,000 have been confirmed as having been infected with the coronavirus. Los Angeles County has the most deaths of any of California’s 58 counties — more than 1,200, or over 55% of the state’s total — even though it represents one-quarter of the state’s population.
Stage 2: Gradual opening of lower-risk workplaces
Opening up with new restrictions:
- Retail, with adaptations, like offering curbside pickup
- Factories, such as those that manufacture toys, clothing and furniture
- Offices, where telecommuting is not possible, but with modifications to lower risk
- Modified school and child-care programs reopen
Expert forecast: Kim-Farley said he suspected California would be headed to Stage 2 in mid-June through the month of July. The loosening could come sooner if the number of cases declines earlier, but could also come later if high numbers of cases persist.
Stage 3: Opening of higher-risk workplaces
There will need to be much more modification to these workplaces to make them safer, state health officer Angell said last week. “We need to know much more about the movement of disease to be able to make data-informed decisions about what’s safe for folks,” Angell said.
- Hair and nail salons
- Gyms
- Movie theaters
- Sports without live audiences
- Churches
- Weddings
Expert forecast: In general, Kim-Farley suspects Stage 3 may occur around August or September — sometime in the late summer or early fall. He expects social-distancing measures — like wearing face coverings and limiting the number of people inside a store — to continue.
Again, the timing could be earlier or later, depending on how the pandemic is progressing.
Stage 4: Full opening
The full end of the stay-at-home order, allowing the resumption of:
- Sports with live audiences
- Convention centers
- Concerts
Expert forecast: This may not be implemented until the middle or latter part of 2021, Kim-Farley said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that, even under the most optimistic scenarios, it would take 12 to 18 months for a vaccine to become available.
On Tuesday, Fauci said it might not be possible for sports teams to resume play this year.
“Safety, for the players and for the fans, trumps everything,” Fauci said in an interview with the New York Times. “If you can’t guarantee safety, then unfortunately you’re going to have to bite the bullet and say, ‘We may have to go without this sport for this season.’”
