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{"id":47269,"date":"2020-06-24T05:21:25","date_gmt":"2020-06-24T05:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/explainer-what-is-a-second-wave-of-a-pandemic-and-has-it-arrived-in-the-u-s\/"},"modified":"2020-06-24T05:21:25","modified_gmt":"2020-06-24T05:21:25","slug":"explainer-what-is-a-second-wave-of-a-pandemic-and-has-it-arrived-in-the-u-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/virusreports.net\/explainer-what-is-a-second-wave-of-a-pandemic-and-has-it-arrived-in-the-u-s\/","title":{"rendered":"Explainer: What is a second wave of a pandemic, and has it arrived in the U.S.?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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CHICAGO (Reuters) – Infectious disease experts, economists and politicians have raised concerns about a second wave of coronavirus infections in the United States that could worsen in the coming months. <\/p>\n
But some, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government\u2019s top infectious disease expert, said it is too soon to discuss a second wave when the United States has never emerged from a first wave in which more than 120,000 people have died and more than 2.3 million Americans have had confirmed infections with the novel coronavirus. <\/p>\n
Here is an explanation of what is meant by a second wave. <\/p>\n
WHY DESCRIBE DISEASE OUTBREAKS AS WAVES? <\/h3>\n
In infectious disease parlance, waves of infection describe the curve of an outbreak, reflecting a rise and fall in the number of cases. With viral infections such as influenza or the common cold, cases typically crest in the cold winter months and recede as warmer weather reappears. <\/p>\n
Fears about a second wave of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, stem in part from the trajectory of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic that infected 500 million people worldwide and killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people. The virus first appeared in the spring of 1918 but appears to have mutated when it surged again in the fall, making for a deadlier second wave. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt came back roaring and was much worse,\u201d epidemiologist Dr. William Hanage of Harvard University\u2019s T.H. Chan School of Public Health said. <\/p>\n
Epidemiologists said there is no formal definition of a second wave, but they know it when they see it. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s often quite clear. You\u2019ll see a rise involving a second group of people after infections in a first group have diminished,\u201d epidemiologist Dr. Jessica Justman of Columbia University\u2019s Mailman School of Public Health said. <\/p>\n
U.S. COVID-19 cases spiked in March and April and then edged downward in response to social-distancing policies aimed at slowing the transmission of the virus from person to person. But unlike several countries in Europe and Asia, the United States never experienced a dramatic drop in cases marking the clear end of a first wave. There is now a plateau of about 20,000 U.S. cases daily. <\/p>\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t talk about a second wave in the summer because we\u2019re still in the first wave. We want to get that first wave down. Then we\u2019ll see if we can keep it there,\u201d Fauci told the Washington Post last week. <\/p>\n
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Medical workers coordinate testing as dozens of people wait in their cars at United Memorial Medical Center amid the global outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Houston, Texas, U.S., June 23, 2020. REUTERS\/Callaghan O’Hare<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/div>\n
The easing in recent weeks of social-distancing mandates in numerous U.S. states as businesses have reopened has caused an acceleration in infections. <\/p>\n
IS TALK OF WAVES JUST SEMANTICS? <\/h3>\n
To many epidemiologists, it is a matter of semantics. <\/p>\n
\u201cDo you want to call it an extension of the first wave or a second wave superimposed on the first? You could argue it either way,\u201d Justman said. <\/p>\n
Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said he does not find \u201cwaves\u201d to be an especially useful term in describing a pandemic. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhen you\u2019re underwater, it\u2019s hard to tell how many waves are passing over your head,\u201d Toner said. <\/p>\n
Toner said current increases in U.S. cases have less to do with the virus and more to do with people\u2019s behavior. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe virus isn\u2019t going away and coming back. The virus is still here. It\u2019s up in some places and down in others,\u201d Toner said. <\/p>\n
WHAT IS THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING MONTHS? <\/h3>\n
Vice President Mike Pence last week wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal trying to ease concerns over a second wave of U.S. cases. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Monday that a \u201csecond wave\u201d is not coming. <\/p>\n
Dr. Theo Vos of the University of Washington\u2019s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation called those assurances \u201cwishful thinking.\u201d <\/p>\n
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Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci takes off his face mask prior testifying before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce on the Trump Administration’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, U.S. June 23, 2020. Kevin Dietsch\/Pool via REUTERS<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Based on global models, his group has predicted that the coronavirus will surge in the fall as colder temperatures arrive in the United States. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s likely to start picking up in October,\u201d Vos said, with increased cases hitting in November, December and January. <\/p>\n
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Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen; Editing by Peter Henderson and Will Dunham<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n