{"id":48347,"date":"2020-06-26T10:21:24","date_gmt":"2020-06-26T10:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/why-trumps-focus-on-falling-death-rates-could-be-dangerous\/"},"modified":"2020-06-26T10:21:24","modified_gmt":"2020-06-26T10:21:24","slug":"why-trumps-focus-on-falling-death-rates-could-be-dangerous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/virusreports.net\/why-trumps-focus-on-falling-death-rates-could-be-dangerous\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Trump\u2019s focus on falling death rates could be dangerous"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nPresident Donald Trump answers questions during a coronavirus task force briefing in April. | Win McNamee\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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President Donald Trump and Republican governors are pointing to fewer coronavirus deaths to suggest that the worst of the coronavirus <\/b>pandemic has passed \u2014 and to blunt criticism that a surge of new infections in more than half the states is proof the country reopened too soon.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s a dangerous gamble. Death rates tell nothing about the current spread of the virus and only offer a snapshot of where the country was roughly three weeks ago. If the caseloads in states like Texas, Arizona and Florida are any indication, the U.S. will almost certainly see a spike in deaths in July <\/b>that could undermine the entire nationwide reopening effort.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re going to do that with the death rate, you should be prepared to look at the death rate in a month or so,\u201d said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard\u2019s school of public health. \u201cYou might not find it so attractive.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Trump on Thursday tweeted<\/a> the number of infections is going up because of \u201cgreat testing while the number of deaths (mortality rate) goes way down.\u201d<\/p>\n

The nationwide death rate over the last two weeks is about 2.6 percent of all known cases, or roughly half of what it was since the pandemic began.<\/p>\n

But public health officials say Trump’s logic is backwards and could give people a false sense of security. The very testing the president blames for increasing case numbers is keeping the death rate low, particularly by identifying younger people who are more likely to be out and could unknowingly be spreading disease.<\/p>\n

The mortality rate is declining, in fact, because more vulnerable, mostly older Americans are still sheltering in place, or at least much less likely to be venturing out to newly opened bars and restaurants. In Arizona, for example, people under 44, now make up 60 percent of cases, up from around 40 percent in mid-April, according to the state\u2019s coronavirus dashboard.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s been a large increase in the 20 to 44 [year old] age bracket,\u201c Gov. Doug Ducey said Thursday.<\/p>\n

In Florida, the median age for all new infections this past week was 34, down from about two years from the week before and down significantly since the pandemic began, the state health department reported.<\/p>\n

But that doesn’t mean the virus is less deadly or contagious: As infections soar, especially in states like Florida and Arizona that have older populations, the risk of catastrophe grows.<\/p>\n

Most important, death follows weeks of illness in most coronavirus cases, which is why experts expect the death toll to rise sharply in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe deaths that get reported today are people who got infected three weeks ago,\u201d said Robert Amler, <\/b>a former HHS regional health administrator.<\/p>\n

Some GOP governors are starting to make their own calculations, heeding calls from local health systems worried about having enough beds to treat a surge of patients.<\/p>\n

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday paused his state\u2019s reopening plan as hospitals in Houston and other locales scrambled to free up ICU beds. Abbott, who led one of the nation\u2019s most aggressive reopenings, is now urging people to stay home as his state contends with more than 5,000 new daily infections. The number of hospitalizations there has doubled in the last 10 days, according to the state health department. Abbott also issued an executive order<\/a> suspending elective surgeries in some counties seeing the sharpest spikes in cases.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Ducey on Thursday said the rate of spread in his state is \u201cunacceptable\u201d and paused further reopening.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect our numbers to be worse next week and the week following,\u201d Ducey said. \u201cThere is no consideration of increasing activity. Arizona is on pause.\u201d<\/p>\n

In deep red Utah, Gov. Gary Herbert announced Wednesday that he would not consider lifting more lockdown restrictions for at least two weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll Utahns should be concerned about the increasing infection rates,\u201d Herbert said. \u201cThey should be concerned because of what it does to our hospital capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Herbert warned packed hospitals can quickly overwhelm health workers. \u201cWe have a limitation more on personnel than on bed space,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Louisiana’s Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards, is keeping occupancy limits in public spaces in place for at least another month, because the average number of new daily infections is up about 50 percent this month<\/a> and hospitalizations are rising across several parts of his state.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe simply are not ready to move to the next phase, and ease restrictions further as businesses open widely,\u201d he said, adding that 90 percent of new cases are from community spread, not from congregate settings such as nursing homes or jails.<\/p>\n

But other governors have maintained a focus on the mortality rate to justify forging ahead, even as infections spike.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe most important data is the death rate,\u201d said Tennessee Republican Gov. Bill Lee on Tuesday, after boasting that his state is tops when it comes to hotel and restaurant recovery.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not the first time lawmakers have shifted rationales to justify their actions. When lockdowns were first lifted in early May, some governors who ignored the White House\u2019s criteria for safely reopening pointed to declining cases in their states. When new infections started rising, they said it was safe to proceed because hospitals had plenty of room to treat patients.<\/p>\n

The shift to the death rate most alarms public health officials who fear it is distracting the public from taking necessary precautions and allowing elected officials to punt on tough decisions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are grasping at straws to try and explain this away,\u201d said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at the Columbia University School of Public Health. \u201cWe\u2019re looking at people picking at the margins for explanations to deny that we are seeing a surge.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Trump administration always expected cases to rise as testing improved and economic activity resumed, and gambled that Americans would trade a certain number of deaths if it meant getting back to work. Trump touted higher stock prices and a better than expected jobs report while 20,000 new infections a day became commonplace.<\/p>\n

But the new threat in places like Arizona and Texas has changed the calculus, said Catherine Lutz, an anthropology professor at Brown University.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe stress on the health care system has de-normalized it again,\u201d she said. \u201cI don\u2019t know if [governors] would have tapped the brakes if we\u2019d been able to handle it in our health care system.\u201d<\/p>\n

The exponential spread in the virus, particularly across the Sun Belt, has also scrambled perceptions about what the nation is prepared to accept.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt doesn\u2019t have to be a huge number for people to say this isn\u2019t right,\u201d Lutz said. \u201cPeople interpret the number is too much if there is something that can be done to prevent it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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President Donald Trump answers questions during a coronavirus task force briefing in April. | Win McNamee\/Getty Images President Donald Trump and Republican governors are pointing to fewer coronavirus deaths to suggest that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic has passed \u2014 and to blunt criticism that a surge of new infections in more than half…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48348,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[3903,90],"class_list":{"0":"post-48347","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-focus","9":"tag-trump"},"yoast_head":"\nWhy Trump\u2019s focus on falling death rates could be dangerous - Virus Reports<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/why-trumps-focus-on-falling-death-rates-could-be-dangerous\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Trump\u2019s focus on falling death rates could be dangerous - 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