{"id":41264,"date":"2020-06-11T07:21:06","date_gmt":"2020-06-11T07:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virusreports.net\/bay-area-coronavirus-case-increases-indicate-a-surge-other-metrics-paint-a-more-nuanced-picture\/"},"modified":"2020-06-11T07:21:06","modified_gmt":"2020-06-11T07:21:06","slug":"bay-area-coronavirus-case-increases-indicate-a-surge-other-metrics-paint-a-more-nuanced-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/virusreports.net\/bay-area-coronavirus-case-increases-indicate-a-surge-other-metrics-paint-a-more-nuanced-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"Bay Area coronavirus case increases indicate a surge. Other metrics paint a more nuanced picture"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/author\/eric-ting\/\">Eric Ting<\/a><span>, SFGATE<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Updated<br \/>\n        <time datetime=\"2020-06-10T21:32:28Z\" itemprop=\"datePublished\"><br \/>\n            2:32\u00a0pm PDT, Wednesday, June 10, 2020<br \/>\n        <\/time><br \/>\n    <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div data-config-asset-position=\"1\" data-gid=\"gallery\">\n<div data-gallery-mode=\"standard\" data-id=\"article-gallery-15330345\" data-title=\"Bay Area coronavirus case increases indicate a surge. Other metrics paint a more nuanced picture\">\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li data-frame-index=\"0\" data-item-id=\"photo-19521423\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California. Photo: Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images \/ 2020 Getty Images\" data-lazy-state=\"loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/s.hdnux.com\/photos\/01\/12\/35\/76\/19521423\/3\/920x920.jpg\"><\/img>\n    <\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.<\/p>\n<p>Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.<\/p>\n<p><span>                                                            Photo: Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<br \/>\n                                                    <\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><span>                                                            Photo: Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<br \/>\n                                                    <\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.<\/p>\n<p>Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.<\/p>\n<p><span>                                                            Photo: Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<br \/>\n                                                    <\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the San Francisco Bay Area continues to climb, and in some counties, the case count has accelerated or &#8220;spiked&#8221; over the past two weeks.<\/p>\n<p>While the rising case numbers have been a source of worry for some, case counts alone are not the best metric for measuring spread.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The easiest thing to look at is case counts, which is not a perfect metric since you have to factor in increased testing,&#8221; UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/news\/editorspicks\/article\/George-Floyd-protests-coronavirus-spike-COVID-know-15325903.php\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">told SFGATE earlier this week<\/a>. &#8220;We&#8217;re finding more asymptomatic cases now, so it&#8217;s not exactly comparable to March and April, when most detected cases were symptomatic. Now in May and June, we&#8217;re catching more asymptomatic cases so it can be hard to interpret since we&#8217;re finding more infections.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Rutherford believes that up to 60% of infections are either asymptomatic or so mild an individual does not think to get tested \u2014 which means that increased testing will yield more confirmed cases if you expand testing to be available to anyone regardless of symptoms. Because of enhanced testing capabilities, Rutherford believes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/coronavirus\/article\/Bay-Area-reopen-new-cases-metric-spread-COVID-how-15270268.php\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">hospitalizations and percent positivity of tests are the best metrics<\/a> to use when measuring spread.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s where the nine Bay Area counties stand on hospitalizations and percent positive test rates when using data from May 25 to June 8. May 25 is the Monday of the week case increases started to accelerate, and there is typically a one-to-two week lag between infection and hospitalization. All data comes from individual county websites and the<a href=\"https:\/\/data.chhs.ca.gov\/dataset\/california-covid-19-hospital-data-and-case-statistics\/resource\/6cd8d424-dfaa-4bdd-9410-a3d656e1176e\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"> state&#8217;s database<\/a> for county-by-county hospitalizations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>San Francisco (2,809 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>56.6 patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>39 patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on May 25: <strong>2.9 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on June 8: <strong>1.6 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>San Mateo (2,475 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>60.9\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>55.1\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on May 25: <strong>4.6 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on June 8: <strong>3.5 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Alameda (4,033 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>82.7\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>87.4\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>NOTE: Alameda does not report the daily percent positive test rate, only cumulative testing data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Contra Costa (1,798 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>13\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>17\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on May 25: <strong>2 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on June 8: <strong>4.7 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Santa Clara (3,017 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>72.9\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>65.6\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on May 25: <strong>1.2 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on June 8: <strong>1.5 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Marin (635 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>3.1\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>1.7\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on May 25: <strong>4.2 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for percent positive test rate on June 5*: <strong>4.5 percent<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>*Marin County&#8217;s testing data only goes up to June 5.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Solano (610 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>42.9\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>29.3\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>NOTE: Solano does not report the daily percent positive test rate, only cumulative testing data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Napa (157 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>2.1\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>2.7\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>NOTE: Napa does not report the daily percent positive test rate, only cumulative testing data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sonoma (671 confirmed cases)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on May 25: <strong>13.4\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Seven-day average for hospitalizations on June 8: <strong>13.6\u00a0patients<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>NOTE: Sonoma does not report the daily percent positive test rate.<\/p>\n<p>The only Bay Area county that saw a confirmed increase in both hospitalizations and the percentage of positive tests is Contra Costa County, but both increases are marginal at best when compared to other areas in the country seeing a rebound in infections. One such example is Arizona, where the percent positive test rate<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/arizonas-spike-coronavirus-cases-definitely-related-reopening-says-former-state-health-1509549\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"> has increased from nine percent on May 24 to 25 percent on June 7<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Sign up for &#8216;The Daily&#8217; newsletter for the latest on coronavirus\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.sfgate.com\/join\/signup-sfgate\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/bayarea\/article\/Restaurants-opening-San-Francisco-Friday-15327569.php\">San Francisco restaurants given go-ahead to reopen sit-down dining<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/news\/editorspicks\/article\/George-Floyd-protests-coronavirus-spike-COVID-know-15325903.php\">How long will it take to gauge the impact of George Floyd protests on coronavirus spread<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/news\/editorspicks\/article\/Coronavirus-updates-movie-theaters-opening-Calif-15327269.php\">Coronavirus updates: Monterey County welcomes back tourism Friday<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/food\/slideshow\/Cambodian-restaurant-Angkor-Borei-closes-30-years-203493.php\">One of the Bay Area&#8217;s only Cambodian restaurants will permanently close after 30 years<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/news\/article\/A-husband-and-wife-were-both-nurses-They-thought-15327252.php\">A husband and wife were both nurses. They thought they would get through the crisis. Then, he died.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Eric Ting is an SFGATE digital reporter. Email: <a href=\"mailto:eric.ting@sfgate.com\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">eric.ting@sfgate.com<\/a> | Twitter:<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_ericting\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">@_ericting<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/news\/editorspicks\/article\/Bay-Area-coronavirus-cases-increase-reopen-data-15330345.php\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Eric Ting, SFGATE Updated 2:32\u00a0pm PDT, Wednesday, June 10, 2020 Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California. Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[5,918],"class_list":{"0":"post-41264","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-health","8":"tag-coronavirus","9":"tag-increases"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bay Area coronavirus case increases indicate a surge. 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