TOPLINE
A federal assessment projects that the number of deaths from coronavirus in the U.S. will increase to 3,000 a day by June—about double the level seen now—as states begin to reopen, the New York Times reported Monday based on an internal document it obtained.
Protesters hold signs and wave flags during a May Day in Huntington Beach, California.
AP Photo/Chris Carlson
KEY FACTS
The projections appear to be from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and were cited in a presentation by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In addition to the increase in deaths, the CDC forecasts that 200,000 new COVID-19 cases will be confirmed daily by the end of the month, a significant increase from the 25,000 daily cases seen now.
The surfacing of the projections follows President Trump’s Sunday night Fox News town hall appearance, in which he said the death toll could reach “75, 80, to 100,000 people,” after conceding he had estimated 65,000 deaths.
Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said earlier on Sunday that “Our projections have always been between 100,000 to 240,000 American lives lost.”
Birx’s projection is in the range of one made March 29 by Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious diseases expert.“I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases…excuse me, deaths,” he said, adding that the number was “a moving target.”
Iowa, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas have partially reopened and are reporting an increase of cases, while states that are beginning to reopen, like Alaska, Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska are also seeing upticks.
Crucial quote
“This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting,” a White House spokesperson told the Times, adding, “This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed.”
Big number
Between 1,000 to 2,000. That’s how many people have died daily in the U.S. from coronavirus over the past month, according to the Times.
Key background
Coronavirus models are designed—and differ in their predictions, based on different assumptions—to help officials make public health decisions based on potential impact. The federal government uses multiple models to inform its efforts against coronavirus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example, considers data from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation along with three other organizations. The White House is known to use the University of Washington’s model, along with Imperial College London. As of March 31, the University of Washington was predicting up to 162,000 coronavirus deaths by summer, while the Imperial College model forecast 2.2 million American deaths if no mitigation efforts were made.
Tangent
As of April 30, coronavirus had killed more Americans than any flu strain over the past 53 years.
Further reading
The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June (New York Times
NYT
Coronavirus Model Used By White House Increases Death Toll For The Second Time In A Week (Forbes)
Trump Says He’s Been Treated ‘Worse’ Than Lincoln (Forbes)
Fauci Predicts Up To 200,000 Deaths And ‘Millions’ Infected In U.S. (Forbes)
