TOPLINE
Since Georgia began reopening businesses—like restaurants, nail salons and gyms on Friday—the state’s coronavirus death toll has climbed beyond 1,000 (from 899 on Friday) and a CDC-approved model predicts the state’s COVID-19 deaths to double by August as a result, reports CNN.
ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 27: Haircuts resume at 2Qute Hair Salon in Atlanta, Georgia.
Photo by Jessica McGowan/Getty Images
KEY FACTS
On Tuesday, Georgia officials reported 1,062 COVID-19 deaths, with 430 fatalities attributed to nursing homes and long-term care facilities.
A coronavirus model created by independent researcher Youyang Gu—which Gu says is the only CDC-approved model that takes into account state reopenings—shows deaths in Georgia increasing from 32 people dying per day on May 1 to 63 daily fatalities by August 4, CNN reports.
The model shows the highest fatalities occurring between May and August for the state, with the peak around June and July.
Georgia and Kentucky are the only states in the Southeast for which the model projects an increase in deaths by August.
Gu told CNN that the model is “very prone to be affected by policy decisions” and if Georgians are ordered to wear masks, infections may be significantly reduced.
Critical quote
“Small things—small policy changes—can make a huge impact,” said Gu to CNN.
Big Number
153,373: the average U.S. COVID-19 deaths predicted by Gu’s model, with a range of 87,409 to 302,324, to factor in the success of reopening efforts.
Key Background
Starting Friday, Georgia became the first state to lift its stay-at-home orders, allowing restaurants, movie theaters, churches, gyms, tattoo parlors and hair and nail salons to reopen with restrictions. This has been met with criticism by business leaders, local mayors and national politicians, including President Trump.
“Georgia’s plan simply is not that well designed,” Mayor Kelly Girtz of Athens, Georgia told the Atlantic. “To call it a ‘plan’ might be overstating the case.”
Further Reading
Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Coronavirus Updates: Georgia Hits 1,000 Deaths As Shelter Order Nears Expiration (WABE News, Associated Press)
Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice (Atlantic)
Georgia Restaurants Opened Their Doors Today—Here’s How It Went (Forbes)
